Making money from weather forecasting?

PasturesNew

I'd bumble along, quietly laying bets all over the place. As a one-man it'd take time/effort/contacts to even get a sniff at being listened to. Why bother with other people when you can simply do weather bets on the quiet.

MoneyBob

somethingcorporate wrote: »

Have you considered just going to a bookies and betting on the weather? i am sure there is money to be made there and they take bets on lots of weird and wonderful things.

That way you personally benefit (or not) from your own algorithm. When you've made a few million invest in a good lawyer to protect your system and try and commercialise it.

I've not got any experience with bookies. Can you literally walk in and ask them to give you odds on anything you like?

MoneyBob

colsten wrote: »

You are an absolute genius - this must be the most profitable money-making scheme in history ever, and I don't know why nobody every before has linked the FTSE to the weather. Have you patented the idea yet? If not, you must before others are getting rich on your idea.

Can you just clarify for me, is it the FTSE 100 or 250 or 350, some, or all of them? How long a good spell of weather should I wait for before selling? And what sort of weather do I best buy in?
Any other tips?

Financial freedom, finally! For everyone and all! Move along George Osborne, we want MoneyBob to do the money stuff. Also, that scottish weather woman on the BBC, name escapes now, should resign.

You've mis-quoted me (by missing out the latter half of my statement).

The slight price increase in a market during good weather (sunny) periods is a well documented phenomenon. I did not come up with it.

Unfortunately the effect is so slight (because of the bit in my post you neglected to cite) that any possible gains are outweighed by the spread and trading costs.

colsten

MoneyBob wrote: »

The slight price increase in a market during good weather (sunny) periods is a well documented phenomenon.

Links please?

Apodemus

MoneyBob wrote: »

The slight price increase in a market during good weather (sunny) periods is a well documented phenomenon. I did not come up with it.

"Sell in May and go away". Prices drop in the summer.

MoneyBob

colsten wrote: »

Links please?

REFERENCE – WEATHER
Weather-Induced Mood, Institutional Investors, and Stock Returns, Goetzmann, William N. and Kim, Dasol and Kumar, Alok and Wang, Qin (Emma) (2013)
Under Pressure: Stock Returns and the Weather, Michael Schneider (2013)
A cloudy day in the market: short selling behavioural bias or trading strategy, Watson, Ethan and Mary C. Funck (2012)
On the relationship between weather and stock market returns, Floros, Christos (2011)
Analysis of the Impact of Weather on Trading in Equity Markets, David Havl!ček (2010)
Does the weather affect stock market volatility?, Symeonidis, Lazaros and George Daskalakis and Raphael N. Markellos (2010)
Is it the weather? Response, Jacobsen, Ben and Wessel Marquering (2009)
Weather and intraday patterns in stock returns and trading activity, Chang, Shao-Chi and Sheng-Syan Chen and Robin K. Chouc and Yueh-Hsiang Lin (2008)
Are Weather Induced Moods Priced in Global Equity Markets?, Dowling, Michael M. and Lucey, Brian M (2008)
Is it the weather?, Jacobsen, Ben and Wessel Marquering (2008)
Stock purchase and the weather: Individual differences, Levy, Ori and Itai Galili (2008)
Macroeconomic news and stock market calendar and weather anomalies, Gerlach, Jeffrey R. (2007)
A meta-analysis of the international evidence of cloud cover on stock returns, Keef, Stephen P.; Roush, Melvin L (2007)
Whether the weather: A comprehensiveassessment of climate effects in the Australian stockmarket, Andrew C Worthington (2006)
Information, Trading, and Volatility: Evidence from Weather-Sensitive Markets, Fleming, Jeff and Chris Kirby and Barbara Ostdiek (2006)
Weather, Biorhythms and Stock Returns – Some Preliminary Irish Evidence, Dowling, Michael and Brian M. Lucey (2005)
Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?, Goetzmann, William N. and Ning Zhu (2005)
Weather, Stock Returns, and the Impact of Localized Trading, Loughran, Tim and Schultz, Paul H (2004)
Do Cloudy Days Affect Stock Exchange Returns: Evidence from Istanbul Stock Exchange , Tufan, Ekrem and Hamarat, Bahattin (2004)
Good day sunshine: Stock returns and the weather, Hirshleifer, D. and T. Shumway (2003)
Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather, David A. Hirshleifer,Tyler Shumway (2001)
Stocks and the Weather: An Exercise in Data Mining or Yet Another Capital Market Anomaly?, Kraemer, Walter and Runde, Ralf (1997)
Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather: Additional Evidence, Trombley, Mark A. (1997)
Stock prices and Wall Street Weather, Saunders, Jr, E. M. (1993)

cheap-information

Cricket would be a pretty good place to start if you know it is going to rain. 5 Ashes test matches ahead of us and numerous one day internationals

Bastiat

How about weather derivatives?

MoneyBob

Bastiat wrote: »

How about weather derivatives?

Sounds perfect but I can't find any on my trading platform (Hargreaves Lansdown). Do you know of any by name? Link?

TY

MoneyBob

cheap-information wrote: »

Cricket would be a pretty good place to start if you know it is going to rain. 5 Ashes test matches ahead of us and numerous one day internationals

I can't predict rain. Just (probably) 'not' rain/cloud.