Making money from weather forecasting?

MoneyBob

Happychappy wrote: »

Bob, you sound like the BBC you might just miss the end :j ! or you might Not :eek:

Not something you can put your shirt on, and I certainly wouldn't pay for that incredible level of certainty, Ummm Bob, stick to your day job

There's no certainties in weather forecasting or stock price forecasting. All you have to do to win is be slightly better than average. I predict there's about a 70% chance of a period of clear sunny skies (not necessarily warm, just clear) for ~5 to 9 days following ~July the 4th.

I may be wrong of course, but I think there's a greater chance of me being right than wrong, but I'm still no nearer to figuring out how to profit from it. I can't sell the algorithm behind it because it's not mine.

SailorSam

I've got my own system, it's easy and foolproof.
If the cows in the field are laying down ........ it's going to rain.
If they're standing up it will be a sunny day.

MoneyBob

SailorSam wrote: »

I've got my own system, it's easy and foolproof.
If the cows in the field are laying down ........ it's going to rain.
If they're standing up it will be a sunny day.

Not heard of that one before. I'm a sailor also btw Sam.

My system can predict, with greater than 50:50 success, spells of clear weather, months in advance.

AndyT678

MoneyBob wrote: »

My system can predict, with greater than 50:50 success, spells of clear weather, months in advance.

If you've got data to back up that claim then write it up, get it published in a peer reviewed scientific journal and then you MIGHT have a product that you could sell.

redux

MoneyBob wrote: »

Not heard of that one before. I'm a sailor also btw Sam.

My system can predict, with greater than 50:50 success, spells of clear weather, months in advance.

But not specific to an actual series of dates.

Saying that there is a 60% or 70% chance of a continuous sequence of 5 to 7 fine days in a certain summer month does not constitute a prediction.

Will there be any ground frosts in November? I can tell you it's quite likely.

MoneyBob

redux wrote: »

But not specific to an actual series of dates.

Saying that there is a 60% or 70% chance of a continuous sequence of 5 to 7 fine days in a certain summer month does not constitute a prediction.

Will there be any ground frosts in November? I can tell you it's quite likely.

I'm not restricted to summer.

castle96

A BBC ? man called Fish was considered quite good at this sort of thing, I seem to remember !

SeduLOUs

AndyT678 wrote: »

If you've got data to back up that claim then write it up, get it published in a peer reviewed scientific journal and then you MIGHT have a product that you could sell.

He can't publish it.

MoneyBob wrote: »

I can't sell the algorithm behind it because it's not mine.

greenglide

Month = August, Weather = 80% fine
Month = December, Weather = 80% wet / cloudy

etc

simple

chris_m

SailorSam wrote: »

I've got my own system, it's easy and foolproof.
If the cows in the field are laying down ........ it's going to rain.
If they're standing up it will be a sunny day.

Unreliable - often if they are laying down it's just coz their legs are tired.