How will the economy be affected by SNP MPs; will it be for richer or for poorer and

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Indeed.

Then we can all sit back, grab some popcorn, and wait for public opinion to turn on the SNP when they become the distrusted and disliked establishment party.

Given by the next GE they'll have been the Scottish govt for a decade or more, the cracks will start to show.

Am sure they will. Happens to all political parties sooner or later. But safe to say, that it won't be the Tories replacing them any time soon. It's not like a football match with teams that you support no matter what.. It will all depend on policies people will find attractive and will vote for regardless of party.

Scottish/Labour will need to come up with a few that appeal to Scots voters at some point. That's where the turning point will be and the cracks will begin to show. The SNP=Bad strategy so far has been a catastrophic failure in Scotland over the last few years. Time for a new approach.

Also, it took several decades for Labour's demise in Scotland ( even when elsewhere in the UK voters turned elsewhere ). And am also not sure that Nicola Sturgeon is on a the road to being disliked or distrusted..nor looking like being anytime soon.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Am sure they will. Happens to all political parties sooner or later. But safe to say, that it won't be the Tories replacing them any time soon. It's not like a football match with teams that you support no matter what.. It will all depend on policies people will find attractive and will vote for regardless of party. .

Heh...

Scottish politics is very often exactly like a football match, and to be honest, very few supporters of any party understand more than a tiny fraction of the policies that party is proposing.

But coming back to the SNP, there are two distinct wings of the party's base supporters, the central belt left wing Sturgeon faction with socialist, authoritarian, big-government inclinations, and the old Salmond faction, the right of centre Tartan Tories in the Highlands and Islands, North and North East, with much more of an inclination towards lower taxes, less government interference, less centralisation, more localism, etc.

Having two diametrically opposed perspectives within the same party is not a recipe for long term stability in government...

Make no mistake about it, an awful lot of Scotland would vote in MP's/MSP's who were calling for essentially Tory economic policies, lower taxes, small state, less red tape for business, localism, etc, if you could remove the toxic Tory brand from the equation.

That such a party will gain traction is inevitable.

Who it will be is a different matter.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

it took several decades for Labour's demise in Scotland ( even when elsewhere in the UK voters turned elsewhere ).

Public opinion is fickle....

The Lib Dems lasted precisely 5 years as the party of government before electoral oblivion, whereas they were fairly successful over many elections as a party of opposition, as they could garner the protest vote.

The SNP would be the exception, not the rule, if they can avoid the same fate.

And am also not sure that Nicola Sturgeon is on a the road to being disliked or distrusted..nor looking like being anytime soon.

A mere 6 years ago, in the height of Cleggmania, you'd have said the same thing about poor old Nick.

And just look at him now....;)

Leanne1812

I don't think anyone is in any doubt that one day the popularity of the SNP will wane. When that will be is the question. When the Tories are toxic & labour are seen as no better these days then something has to change. Some party has to offer a credible alternative. Until that happens I can't see the demise of SNP. Nicola Sturgeon has, you have to agree, been a fantastic ambassador for SNP. People who didn't like the party or Alex Salmond have changed their opinion since she took over. Until Labour find a leader we like & policy that pleases then they'll remain on the fringes.

The two candidates for scot labour leadership don't seem to be outstanding in any shape or form. Kezia is seen as a bit of a lightweight in my opinion yet appears to have good support within the party. To the best of my knowledge the other is looking for autonomy for scots labour which doesn't seem to be popular. I've been away for 2 weeks so might be behind with the latest news and may be unaware of what's happening in the leadership race.

I think SNP will do just as well in next years elections as they have this year.

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Heh...

Scottish politics is very often exactly like a football match, and to be honest, very few supporters of any party understand more than a tiny fraction of the policies that party is proposing.

Mabye for the 'hard core/die hards' in every party. I don't think that applies to the vast majority of ordinary voters. Most of Labour's vote in now in the over 65's in Scotland. That's were the residual 'tribalism' resides. If it were still the case in 2015, you wouldn't have so many people swapping their votes to another party ( Labour -> SNP in this case ). People changed their minds, because they liked what the SNP were offering in terms of policies better. Simple as that.

But coming back to the SNP, there are two distinct wings of the party's base supporters, the central belt left wing Sturgeon faction with socialist, authoritarian, big-government inclinations, and the old Salmond faction, the right of centre Tartan Tories in the Highlands and Islands, North and North East, with much more of an inclination towards lower taxes, less government interference, less centralisation, more localism, etc.

Having two diametrically opposed perspectives within the same party is not a recipe for long term stability in government...

Again, there might have been something in that in the past. But I don't think that's the case anymore. The SNP is a broad church as you say. But no broader than Corbyn/Abbot or Miliband/Cooper/Kendal in Labour.

I think people are pretty much the same. Most of whom reside in the middle with the more extreme factions on either side. And again, it doesn't explain why so many former Labour/Lib Dem voters switched and from ALL geographical areas in Scotland (including those old North, Highlands and Islands, Aberdeen etc ), not just Glasgow. Those switchers liked what the SNP was offering in terms of policies better.

Make no mistake about it, an awful lot of Scotland would vote in MP's/MSP's who were calling for essentially Tory economic policies, lower taxes, small state, less red tape for business, localism, etc, if you could remove the toxic Tory brand from the equation.

That such a party will gain traction is inevitable.

Who it will be is a different matter.

Mabye, but I shouldn't imagine the Tories have any great hopes there at the present time in terms of gaining traction. The PR way of voting in Holyrood means they gain representation. Which is a good thing.. However, both Ruth Davidson and Kezia Dugdale are a long way short at the moment of any real First Minister hopes.

Johann Lamont today was calling for in independent Labour Party in Scotland. And quite frankly, to me, that's the only way they ( or even the Conservatives ) will gain traction for a while. I for one would welcome both in Scotland as I think the Scottish branches of both parties are hampered massively by not being able to offer much really in the way of solid policies tailored to Scotland, even within the devolved parliament <---- where it matters for MSPs.

They're simply reduced to shouting and endlessly critising the SNP with little else of their own in terms of policies on offer. I actually think people just switch off now when either appears in the telly. Like I said, they need something new to offer.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Leanne1812 wrote: »

I think SNP will do just as well in next years elections as they have this year.

Very possible, indeed perhaps even better, but that will be the last of three really big political events in around 2 years that have been on the back of highly unusual events.

A multi-year political campaign for the once-in-a-generation indyref built a massive interest in Scottish politics and basically enabled the SNP to convert that Yes vote into support for them in the GE just 8 months later, and no doubt the next Scottish election as well.

But then there will be a four year gap before the next election cycle, as opposed to having three big voting events in under two years, and that's a very long time to try and keep people interested and engaged.

Not to mention the significant surge towards protest voting we've seen since 2007 will likely evaporate as the economy continues to recover and we all get better off, largely thanks to Tory economic policies the SNP will have no ability to take credit for, while the SNP will become viewed as the establishment party in Scotland that gets the blame for whatever does go wrong up here.

The SNP may well find themselves between a rock and a hard place sooner rather than later.

ETA: It's a four year gap to next election not three year - even harder to keep momentum.

padington

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Very possible, indeed perhaps even better, but that will be the last of three really big political events in around 2 years that have been on the back of highly unusual events.

A multi-year political campaign for the once-in-a-generation indyref built a massive interest in Scottish politics and basically enabled the SNP to convert that Yes vote into support for them in the GE just 8 months later, and no doubt the next Scottish election as well.

But then there will be a three year gap before the next election cycle, as opposed to having three big voting events in under two years, and that's a very long time to try and keep people interested and engaged.

Not to mention the significant surge towards protest voting we've seen since 2007 will likely evaporate as the economy continues to recover and we all get better off, largely thanks to Tory economic policies the SNP will have no ability to take credit for, while the SNP will become viewed as the establishment party in Scotland that gets the blame for whatever does go wrong up here.

The SNP may well find themselves between a rock and a hard place sooner rather than later.

Also Scotland is going to be given extra tax raising powers which if the SNP decides to over use could cause scotland problems to England's benefit , whilst if they don't decide to raise taxes after such bluff and guster, it might make them lose face. Could be a lose - lose and a lesson in the wisdom of unity.

elantan

They have had tax raising powers already, they didn't use them

scott_lithgows

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Very possible, indeed perhaps even better, but that will be the last of three really big political events in around 2 years that have been on the back of highly unusual events.

A multi-year political campaign for the once-in-a-generation indyref built a massive interest in Scottish politics and basically enabled the SNP to convert that Yes vote into support for them in the GE just 8 months later, and no doubt the next Scottish election as well.

But then there will be a four year gap before the next election cycle, as opposed to having three big voting events in under two years, and that's a very long time to try and keep people interested and engaged.

Not to mention the significant surge towards protest voting we've seen since 2007 will likely evaporate as the economy continues to recover and we all get better off, largely thanks to Tory economic policies the SNP will have no ability to take credit for, while the SNP will become viewed as the establishment party in Scotland that gets the blame for whatever does go wrong up here.

The SNP may well find themselves between a rock and a hard place sooner rather than later.

ETA: It's a four year gap to next election not three year - even harder to keep momentum.

That would be true but it depends on the level of interest in the EU referendum,SNP have already said they will not join up with other pro EU parties so you could have SNP running the "Yes" show up here with the Labour Party spending their resources down south as they would be a sideshow in Scotland.

I can see the Saltire,s and superimposed E.U flag already.....

.string.

elantan wrote: »

They have had tax raising powers already, they didn't use them

I wonder if that will be in their next manifesto? I suspect that is a lose/lose dilemma for the SNP, deciding how to explain their taxing policy. Sulking in the corner wailing for Magic Powers won't be entirely convincing.