So, House Prices can't fall uh?

pamaris

MikeLondon wrote: »

Is that not like telling someone not to live their life for fear of being run over by a bus?

I think that the conversation is more akin to "look both ways before you cross the street" because a bus is coming.

If you don't fancy purchasing a home for £250k and having it worth £150k next year, read the signs, decide for yourself, and postpone making the purchase. Whether you fancy it or not has no bearing on whether or not it will happen.

Snow_Dog

;)Oops, must have typed the wrong URL, I was after MSE not HPC:D

Spotted a post earlier stating that Bournemouth was awash with BTLs up for sale and not selling and so on.

Now, maybe not Bournemouth but in the same conurbation I know of a family member acheiving a cash offer of not much under the £600K they actually wanted for their place. Our neighbour has just been offered close to the nearly 1/2M asking price and from what I can see in the Broadstone, Oakdale, Parkstone, Crofe Mullen and Wimborne areas the asking prices are still climbing, the sold boards are still appearing and it all seems to be business as usual.

Now dont get me wrong I think that continued rate of HPI is unsustainable and bad for the future (what goes up must come down, the higher the climb the potentially more painful the fall). But this almost constant dissecting of the reports to find the one most likely to enforce your theory and cherry pick articles most of which are written by 'reporters' not journalists will turn this board into a parody of HPC/GHPC, and the culprits who sart these threads know this.

And yes, you may say that i'm a hippocrite in joining in a number of these threads, and yes it is getting boring so I think its time to give this board a break and maybe come back when the crash is all over.

Just one thing to remember though for all you eager crash merchants who either are too young to remember or dont want to. A housing market crash doesnt come alone to the party, its usually accompanied by loss of jobs, job security, product price inflation, credit squeeze, recession and depression to name but a few. It isnt a nice party and while you sit there thinking smugly how well prepared you are as you've been predicting this for the last five years (as user crash2003 on HPC will testify) will you bail out you close family and best friends or will you sit back and say 'i told you so'.

Have fun.:cool:

phlash

Never said I'm eager for a crash, just that a decline in house prices is very likely IMVHRO.

phlash

Back on topic, all those who have been on the house prices won't fall camp, what about the original post??? Evidence from Ireland of MoM falls most of 2007?

If it can happen in Spain, USA and Ireland, why not in UK where house price ratios are even more extreme?

BobProperty

phlash wrote: »

Back on topic, all those who have been on the house prices won't fall camp, what about the original post??? Evidence from Ireland of MoM falls most of 2007?

If it can happen in Spain, USA and Ireland, why not in UK where house price ratios are even more extreme?

"It's different this time" ?

hearts

phlash wrote: »

Lets do an acid test on your theory....

1) Houses around me are falling in sale price (thats the sold figures)
2) On this evidence, since this is the only thing I need to look at according to yourself, house prices must be falling in the whole universe!

Excellent, nice theory.

As I said, it takes just a weeeeee bit more research than that! :beer:

PS. My Daddy is bigger than yours :rolleyes:

1. I can only speak for my area. Prices around me are rising. I cannot comment on other areas. Scotland is different in its selling so you can get a good idea of the selling prices from the asking price. Unlike the English system where offers are lower than the asking price here they are higher. So walking up the street is actually worth while.

Surley the acid test in all this is who is and has been right. I admit the people who have been predicting the "crash" for the last few years are far more knowledgable than I am. Most seem very inteligent something I am not. They are quoting articles and statements from learned men with a depth of knowledge on their subjects I couldn't even hope to equal. The trouble is they were and are wrong.
I have never attempted to predict the future. I simply say what I see. I see no crash ;-)

PS...your daddy maybe big but you aint seen my mum!:p

phlash

hearts wrote: »

1. I can only speak for my area. Prices around me are rising. I cannot comment on other areas. Scotland is different in its selling so you can get a good idea of the selling prices from the asking price. Unlike the English system where offers are lower than the asking price here they are higher. So walking up the street is actually worth while.

Surley the acid test in all this is who is and has been right. I admit the people who have been predicting the "crash" for the last few years are far more knowledgable than I am. Most seem very inteligent something I am not. They are quoting articles and statements from learned men with a depth of knowledge on their subjects I couldn't even hope to equal. The trouble is they were and are wrong.
I have never attempted to predict the future. I simply say what I see. I see no crash ;-)

PS...your daddy maybe big but you aint seen my mum!:p

Then maybe there is no point entering the conversation to talk about the present, since it is about speculation into the future. By your theory I am also 'wrong' to say that the olympics will take place in London in 2012, since it hasnt happened yet despite much evidence that it will.

You can see how trivial this is getting. By your theory though, you'd be the one in the 'wrong' about Ireland and the 'house prices can drop' camp would be right.

But what use is knowing about current climate without having some opinion of future performance? Future performance is the name of the game, and the risk of large drops in the housing market is a very credible argument, which I have to say is very rarely countered with a credible house price can still continue to rise argument.

Some points to chew on:

- Possible credit crunch
- Stubborn inflation
- Slow earnings growth
- Rising interest rates
- BTL speculative investment
- Level of personal debt
- UK government debt levels
- Spain
- Ireland
- USA
- World rising interest rates
- Japan
- Level of bearish news in past 3 months
- Enough houses exist, just many own 2/3, is there really an under-supply? Yes maybe, would there be if these people with multiple investments noticed house price drops?
- Sentiment!
- Kick back of younger generation unwilling to indebt themselves to the wealth of the older generation.
- Shock factors - economic / physical / mental.

etc.

Melissa177

This whole thread is a great example of Levi-Strauss's theorem that people like to think about the world in binary opposites, rather than shades of grey.

The OP has made a statement that "House Prices Can't Fall" (ironically), hoping that someone will come along and state that no, house prices are not going to fall, so they can knock them down. What a peculiar lot we are!

House price fixation is a pecularly British obsession (and I'm as guilty as the next person!)

phlash

Melissa177 wrote: »

This whole thread is a great example of Levi-Strauss's theorem that people like to think about the world in binary opposites, rather than shades of grey.

The OP has made a statement that "House Prices Can't Fall" (ironically), hoping that someone will come along and state that no, house prices are not going to fall, so they can knock them down. What a peculiar lot we are!

House price fixation is a pecularly British obsession (and I'm as guilty as the next person!)

Not to knock them down, but to hear a well reasoned bull argument. As yet, whichever way I word a thread, or whichever thread I read, I am struggling to find someone to provide one.

Which is a very interesting fact in itself.

Martinslovechild

I remember reading once that people who like buying burgers don't like it when the price of burgers goes up, people who like buying beer don't like it when the price of beer goes up, and yet people who like buying shares love it when the price of shares goes up.

On the face of it, this seems like odd behaviour. Surely, the same is true of house prices. If a property is currently on the market for £250,000 but the market is 38% over its long-term trend, then the underlying or 'real' price is £181160. I know which I would prefer to pay!

One poster here points out that "where there is a boom, there is always a bust". Well, not always perhaps - it really depends on the size of the bubble, but given that the current housing market has never actually hit a level of 38% above its long-term trend before, I can't see how any rational person can't foresee a 'correction' at some point in the future. History teaches us a useful lesson, particularly where house prices are concerned - 'soft landings' are as rare as the dodo whilst crashes are unfortunately far more common.