So, House Prices can't fall uh?

RabbitMad

manhattan wrote: »

Why the hell is there so many conflicting reports of "house prices rise by there biggest since........." and "house prices fell blah,blah,blah" ?

Where do these people get their figures from or is it just one big "big up the crash" or "big up the HPI"?

Can someone please tell me who is telling the porkies! lol :rotfl:

Well you've got:

Lies
Dam Lies
and Statistics

I believe both the fools and BBC's articles are "correct". They are just using different statistics and time periods. The Beeb's is the UK as a whole since last year, where as the fools was just some areas in london over a shorter timeframe.

You can prove pretty much anything with satistics.

After all when asked recently who was the best lover on MSE 100% of people said bruno*.


*1 person asked between 12:18 and 12:19 on 13/08

m00m00

and that one person who said yes, was an Umbrella salesman so had a vested interest

hearts

phlash wrote: »

Then maybe there is no point entering the conversation to talk about the present, since it is about speculation into the future. By your theory I am also 'wrong' to say that the olympics will take place in London in 2012, since it hasnt happened yet despite much evidence that it will.

You can see how trivial this is getting. By your theory though, you'd be the one in the 'wrong' about Ireland and the 'house prices can drop' camp would be right.

But what use is knowing about current climate without having some opinion of future performance? Future performance is the name of the game, and the risk of large drops in the housing market is a very credible argument, which I have to say is very rarely countered with a credible house price can still continue to rise argument.

Some points to chew on:

- Possible credit crunch
- Stubborn inflation
- Slow earnings growth
- Rising interest rates
- BTL speculative investment
- Level of personal debt
- UK government debt levels
- Spain
- Ireland
- USA
- World rising interest rates
- Japan
- Level of bearish news in past 3 months
- Enough houses exist, just many own 2/3, is there really an under-supply? Yes maybe, would there be if these people with multiple investments noticed house price drops?
- Sentiment!
- Kick back of younger generation unwilling to indebt themselves to the wealth of the older generation.
- Shock factors - economic / physical / mental.

etc.

My point is, and was, I make my judgements based on what I see. I see no sign of a crash and I say so. You on the other hand have been seeing a crash for a number of years now.
The Olympics are DEFINITELY taking place unless something happens to stop them. Are you now saying the crash IS going to happen rather than may happen?
Why mention Ireland? Oh I see, you were right you just got the country wrong.
The current climate is what will effect the future and prices are still rising, until we see a slowing down then a crash is highly unlikely in the near future. My stance is and always has been that prices will stabalise rather than crash. I have many reasons for thinking this. A lot of the things that make you think there will be a crash to me are signs of a stabalisation.

globalds

So whats the oppinion of todays figures..
.http://www.moneyextra.com/news/news-house-price-033735.html
I can't believe London Prices ....I feel I was lucky to buy a house (not in london)...But how does any one get on the London ladder now.

Sapphire

globalds wrote: »

So whats the oppinion of todays figures..
.http://www.moneyextra.com/news/news-house-price-033735.html
I can't believe London Prices ....I feel I was lucky to buy a house (not in london)...But how does any one get on the London ladder now.

Stay away from it - most of inner London is a disgusting, polluted, over-populated, over-built mess.

Ad

wolvoman wrote: »

What utter nonsense.
So you're saying out of a sample of people you know that 100% (that's what you're saying ONE HUNDRED PERCENT) have been asked to exaggerate their income to get a mortgage?

Either you mix with some very shady people, or you're making it up to support your argument.

Not people I know personally but I've been told just how they managed to climb upon the ladder and this relates to far more than one or two people. You can choose to ignore the truth or accept it. It makes no difference to me.

Mortgage fraud is practically common place. There has also been at least two undercover programmes on the subject over the last few years.

tomstickland

My point is, and was, I make my judgements based on what I see. I see no sign of a crash and I say so.

By the time you see it then it will be too late. If there is one.

oldwiring

Back in my youth days of banking, it was drummed in to us that land was good security. Reason: its supply was limited and no more could be manufactured. Houses cannot exist without land,so, unless there is a decrease in population, land will always be in demand and value will always trend upwards. IMO short term reversals do not belie that fact.

tomstickland

wolvoman wrote: »

What utter nonsense.
So you're saying out of a sample of people you know that 100% (that's what you're saying ONE HUNDRED PERCENT) have been asked to exaggerate their income to get a mortgage?

Either you mix with some very shady people, or you're making it up to support your argument.

You can't call some else's experience "nonsense". If they had said "I believe that 100% of mortgage applications are fraudulently obtained" then that could be called nonsense. However, someone reporting their experiences, if true, cannot be nonsense.

hearts

oldwiring wrote: »

Back in my youth days of banking, it was drummed in to us that land was good security. Reason: its supply was limited and no more could be manufactured. Houses cannot exist without land,so, unless there is a decrease in population, land will always be in demand and value will always trend upwards. IMO short term reversals do not belie that fact.

Wise words. :beer: