So, House Prices can't fall uh?

PasturesNew

If you actually read this forum, you'll see that people getting their keys today probably first viewed their house 2-3 months ago.

The house they bought might have been on the market 3-6 months before that (mine was on for 1 year before I sold it 2 months ago)

So what you think you see now is the "proof" of what was happening between 3 and 9 months ago.

What is happening TODAY is different. Houses are not selling as quickly; people are dropping their prices; estate agents are convincing sellers to take offers quite a bit below the advertised price.

Unfortunately, unless you pay a few quid to the Land Registry, you will have to wait 2-3 months to see this for free online.

My house sale still isn't showing up even though it was in June.

My house was "valued" in June 2006. I dropped the price by £8.5k in January. I accepted an offer of £3k under asking price in January. That sale fell through. Next buyer matched that £3k under price.

House completed a year after it went on the market at £11.5k under my first "value" - at a time when we were told houses are flying off the shelves and prices were going up, up, up.

If I put it on the market today, at £12k under what I got for it - I bet nobody'd be viewing it at all... and if I got an offer, I'd be happy to let it go for £10-15k under that price depending on buyer's situation. (A total of £22-27k cheaper than I sold it for 2 months ago)

Turnbull2000

hearts wrote: »

My friend I am probably worth a great deal more than you. But thats another matter. ;-)
When I said "walk up the road" I asummed you would have the common sense to then check what the houses were actually selling for and not just go by the For sale price. As I said where I am prices are still rising. This is the evidence that matters not the continual garbage being spouted by you HPC lot.
OH and had I listened to you even 9 months ago I would be worth 200k less today. So much for you and your "entrepreneurial, no foresight or initiative" ;-)

You crack me up :rotfl:

Ever thought that your apparent increase in 'wealth' is ephemeral? With the credit frenzy beginning to unwind, I'd say this is looking pretty likely.

It's odd that so many people believe mortgage debt = wealth :rotfl:

However, if you paid cash and own the property outright, then please disregard :beer:

Orion_3

globalds wrote: »

He only really needs to go and have a look at this web-site http://www.houseprices.co.uk/and tap in his post-code ......not really working hard

I just had a look at that site. It's not much help as a guide to the state of the market, as it doesn't tell you have many bedrooms, size of garden etc each house has. Plus, according to the site, the most recent sale in MY street was last year, again not much help. And does the site quote the asking price, or is it how much was eventually accepted? The latter is obviously the important figure.

Pricesnake seems to be a better guide, as it tells you how much people are having to drop their prices and how long houses have been on the market for.

oldwiring

barrymung wrote: »

Depends how you define "crash"..

Will house prices fall substantially over the next 18 months or so? IMHO yes.

Will there be larger numbers of people have their homes repossessed? IMHO yes.

Will the market go from being a sellers one to a buyers one? IMHO yes.

You must remember the old addage: "When America sneezes, Britain catches a cold"..

About reposssessions, the lenders are alreay getting tougher http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/main.jhtml?xml=/property/2007/08/11/pword111.xml

phlash

hearts wrote: »

My friend I am probably worth a great deal more than you. But thats another matter. ;-)
When I said "walk up the road" I asummed you would have the common sense to then check what the houses were actually selling for and not just go by the For sale price. As I said where I am prices are still rising. This is the evidence that matters not the continual garbage being spouted by you HPC lot.
OH and had I listened to you even 9 months ago I would be worth 200k less today. So much for you and your "entrepreneurial, no foresight or initiative" ;-)

Lets do an acid test on your theory....

1) Houses around me are falling in sale price (thats the sold figures)
2) On this evidence, since this is the only thing I need to look at according to yourself, house prices must be falling in the whole universe!

Excellent, nice theory.

As I said, it takes just a weeeeee bit more research than that! :beer:

PS. My Daddy is bigger than yours :rolleyes:

phlash

Lazy_Runner wrote: »

I don't claim to understand how the following will play out, but here are some thoughts:

When prices are dropping, people are less likely to sell (except in certain circumstances, see below). Everybody has a value for their house, and most will hang tight rather than sell. Therefore supply goes down. Does this mean the sell to renters get the bargains they have been waiting for? Not sure. With less houses on the market, but still possibly the same number of buyers?

When prices are falling, people will only sell if they have to. That means because of job moves, redundancy, repossession etc.
Well if it is job moves, at least means the economy is still in good shape so that people may pay the asking price or a little bit less.

If the economy is tanking, and the selling is due to redundancy, it is a buyers market.

If the sale is because of a repossession, the price might be lower, but the previous owners may have not had the finances to do any repairs etc i.e. keep the house in good condition. So yes the house will be cheap but may need a load of money spending on it.

So my essential point is that when prices are falling, people aren't going to sell and the bargains that people are expecting just won't show up.

You've modelled this on the whole of the market being owner occupiers. The fact is, is that we now have a MASSIVE amount of speculative investment in the form of BTL. Most of which are every Tom !!!!!! and Harry, rather than seasoned Investors. Many seasoned investors got out and have put their money elsewhere.

How does the sentiment of speculative BTL figure in a falling house price scenario may I ask?

globalds

Orion wrote: »

I just had a look at that site. It's not much help as a guide to the state of the market, as it doesn't tell you have many bedrooms, size of garden etc each house has. Plus, according to the site, the most recent sale in MY street was last year, again not much help. And does the site quote the asking price, or is it how much was eventually accepted? The latter is obviously the important figure.

Pricesnake seems to be a better guide, as it tells you how much people are having to drop their prices and how long houses have been on the market for.

The price quoted is the only one that matters ...the price paid

Put in the perspective that if you are looking at houses locally and see a for sale sign and then use this to acess the sale price and can see if the garden is bigger or smaller than your own or whether it has a loft conversion it contains quite usefull information.

Fortunately if you live in an street that has very little property movement ,then in general that means your house will be worth a little more than the streets where houses are up left right and center.

The listing of this site was as an example of how easy it is to find information on property without having to treak to a fro .I am sure that for a small fee even more trustworthy ,informative or faster updated sites exist ...My intention was not to promote this site over any other .

dolce_vita

globalds wrote: »

I have been reading and enjoying this thread ...I just think that there is a bit of the puzzle being missed .
Property owners who own 2 homes either in the UK or overseas sit at the wealthier end of society .Yet any loss of value would hit them twice as hard .the efect on sentiment because of this could be enough to start the snowball rolling
I am thinking specifically here of people investing in Dubai or USA .both places have amassed a huge oversupply of developments and as we can see with the USA need cheap money to keep supply ongoing .
So What i'm saying is "I think a drop in prices in a few more places globally would be enough to start a knee jerk that would worry enough people in UK to stop people wanting to buy"
the unkown is whether there is still enough demand in UK to mop up this effect ....I think it is too close to call .
People with a steady income are in a much better position to talk to a bank than some poor s%d who has been made redundent.
Banks with a pile of bad debt from overseas investments are going to be more inclined to negotiate .
I would have to say if forced ..NO crash ..Just no more Rises ....Just stuck for 7-10 years .....Not very exciting I know ....I think maybe thats what the sytem wants.

"the system" ie the banks do not want stabilisation. Because stabilisations do not make big profits.

Boom and bust is the game.

Boom......then bust....boom.....then bust..............

we are witnessing a boom. gues what comes next.

You can talk about anecdotal evidence all you want but the fact of the matter is a crash is on its way.

globalds

I think the rules tend towards the policy that the more you have invested the more risk averse the tendency is .
boom and bust is allright when you have nothing to lose ...Look at the palestine or sierra leone for booms and busts
reality tends towards cartels monopolies and controlling markets ...a steady earner is worth far more than an irregular big pay off ....thats why mortage lenders offer it on a plate to a salary man ..and the self employed strugle to prove their worth...
So unfortunately im still tending towards a steady ...flatline ...for at least five years ...
Im sure that if this level stabalises it will give the opportunity of variation at some other (as yet )undiscovered level

MikeLondon_3

People say there is always a bust.

Is this not the same as saying someone is always going to die???

you know, as soon as you're born, you're going to die
the same applies, as soon as there is a boom, there's going to be a bust??

surely, you may then KNOW that there is going to be a bust, but not know WHEN there is going to be a bust, just that it is eventually inevitable.

Is that not like telling someone not to live their life for fear of being run over by a bus?

I'm probably chatting rubbish, but that's how it sounds to me.

btw, I'm a prospective first time buyer in Surrey. looking at nearly £250,000 for a 2 bed maisonette. I don't fancy it being worth £150,000 next year.