Effects of the European Referendum & (yet another) Scot Exit on the UK Economy

setmefree2

Regardless of whether you are going to vote yes or no - what do you think will happen to the UK economy in the lead up to the referendum?

Any thoughts on another Scottish referendum vote?

It would be great if you could link to any good articles you come across.

setmefree2

Longer term, though, markets are likely to be troubled by the landslide success of the Scottish National Party and the prospects of a second Scottish referendum. The promised EU referendum in 2017 is another uncertainty.
“We believe some of the positive sentiment may be short lived,” warned stock broker Killik after Friday’s rapid rally.
Many respected fund managers worry the market is in any case over-priced, thanks to the effects of “quantitative easing” or money-printing. Bruce Stout, manager of the £1.5bn Murray International investment trust, told Telegraph Money recently that “when the realisation comes that central banks have not saved the world, and British shares cannot grow into their valuations, the stock market will correct and it will not be pretty.”
The possibility of future referenda casts a similar, longer-term question mark over the value of the pound, which also shot up on Friday.
David Cameron has explicitly committed to keeping interest rates low – to the benefit of mortgage borrowers but the continued pain of depositors.
But the Conservatives’ pro-business policies should see rates rise as the economy and wages grow. “It is abundantly clear interest rates will rise for the right reason – namely because the recovery is continuing to gain strength,” said fund manager GLG.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/11593171/General-election-win-and-your-money-what-to-expect-in-the-next-five-years.html

setmefree2

There are five important political problems with FFA (Full Fiscal Autonomy) for Scotland.

http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=13071

setmefree2

Currently, polls indicate that the electorate favors remaining in the EU, with a poll by Survation for the Mail on Sunday over the weekend suggesting that 45 percent would vote to stay, and 38 percent would vote to leave.
Yet Thursday's election result – which came as a shock to most pollsters -- shows how unreliable polls can be.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102666350

Wheezy_2

There will be some heated discussion coming up shortly about who is eligible to vote in the EU referendum.
British nationals only?
Based on residence? (as in the Scottish referendum)
What about expats?
16-17 year old also?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/eu-referendum-europe-peers-young-vote

Pro-Europeans in the House of Lords are planning a major campaign to ensure that 16- and 17-year-olds – as well as British citizens living in other EU countries – are allowed to vote in the in/out referendum on the EU that David Cameron has promised by the end of 2017.

wellused

The effect on a Scottish exit from the UK or a UK exit from the Eu are complete unknowns there are too many variables to calculate but no doubt there would be a negative effect before any positives were felt.
As for who is eligible to vote on an in out EU referendum I would like to see all 16 year olds allowed to vote as it will have a greater affect on their futures than it would on the elderly, the over 70's could be barred from voting as an EU exit wouldn't affect them so much.

CLAPTON

wellused wrote: »

The effect on a Scottish exit from the UK or a UK exit from the Eu are complete unknowns there are too many variables to calculate but no doubt there would be a negative effect before any positives were felt.
As for who is eligible to vote on an in out EU referendum I would like to see all 16 year olds allowed to vote as it will have a greater affect on their futures than it would on the elderly, the over 70's could be barred from voting as an EU exit wouldn't affect them so much.

It have an even greater affect on the pre school age children.

Maybe we could a 'proportional' system : the younger you are the greater number of points your vote is assigned?

No need for knowledge, wisdom or experience in coming to a decision.

IveSeenTheLight

setmefree2 wrote: »

Any thoughts on another Scottish referendum vote?

There is no mandate for another Scottish referendum. I wish people would accept that and stop going over old ground.

The SNP have clearly said so.

That said, the SNP also said as an example,, if the Euro referendum returned a vote to leave from the UK, but Scotland portion voted to stay, it would need to be considered.

If the UK vote the same as the Scots, again there is no mandate for change.

IveSeenTheLight

wellused wrote: »

I would like to see all 16 year olds allowed to vote

I agree.
If you can work, pay taxes, join the armed forces etc, then you should be able to vote on who governs the country

CLAPTON

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

There is no mandate for another Scottish referendum. I wish people would accept that and stop going over old ground.

The SNP have clearly said so.

That said, the SNP also said as an example,, if the Euro referendum returned a vote to leave from the UK, but Scotland portion voted to stay, it would need to be considered.

If the UK vote the same as the Scots, again there is no mandate for change.

so the SNP have clearly said there will be (undefined) circumstances when they will demand a referendum.

so not old ground atall.

Graham_Devon

Wheezy wrote: »

There will be some heated discussion coming up shortly about who is eligible to vote in the EU referendum.
British nationals only?
Based on residence? (as in the Scottish referendum)
What about expats?
16-17 year old also?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/eu-referendum-europe-peers-young-vote

Didn't the Scots get it ripped out of them when they introduced 16/17 year old voting to "get the answer they wanted"?

Amusing that the same tactics are now be used to water down the older vote on the EU.

It will all start to unravel now. I see they are even bringing in the votes from those residing outside of the UK to ensure more "stay" votes.

The desperation will be endless and almost witty. The lengths they are going to go to to ensure as many people are captured to enginner a "no" will surprise us all.