The Election Section: Get Your Crystal Balls Out...

antrobus

BobQ wrote: »

The ICM assumption that undecided votes will return to the party they supported in 2010 is quite dubious ....

It is not an ICM assumption. It is a fairly standard opinion polling methodology to reallocate 'don't knows' on the basis of past voting.

Populus, for example, also do the same. And they do so because they have actual evidence to suggest that there is a good chance that undecided voters will return to the party they previously supported.

See: Spiral of Silence
http://www.populuslimited.com/polling.html

Shakethedisease

Moby wrote: »

Agree with every word. The parliamentary arithmetic will decide what happens next week. Political legitimacy will be looked at through the prism of your own political bias:)
Cameron may say I have first shout at forming a Govmt (say he gets 20 more seats than Labour)....but can he get his Queens speech through HoC? Another thing many people are concentrating on how the SNP are Labour's problem but surely if Cameron attempts to run a minority Govmt they will cause even more hell for him! You also make a good point about the future of the union. During future negotiations the parties cannot ignore what happens in Scotland surely?

I think the point is that Tories will 'delay' things for about a month before even trying to present a Queens Speech through. Even though they haven't a majority. Based on having the largest vote share/seats..

The Tories declare victory if they have the most seats, regardless of the parliamentary arithmetic. Key supportive newspapers endorse this line and pressure is put on the broadcasters to follow suit. The Tories begin publicly reassembling their coalition with the Lib Dems within hours of the polls closing, despite knowing they have no majority in parliament, in order to cement the image that they remain the legitimate government. In the run-up to the Queen’s Speech on 27 May – with David Cameron remaining as Prime Minister – the media campaign against the SNP will make the current onslaught look timid.

Amid political uncertainty, a falling stock market and the value of the pound are used to build an atmosphere of national emergency. A handful of right-wing Labour MPs – the likes of Rochdale’s Simon Danczuk, perhaps – are wheeled out on TV to echo the line of illegitimacy, helping to construct a narrative of growing Labour turmoil. Moves to depose Miliband are encouraged. The aim will be straightforward: to make it politically impossible for Labour to form a government even though left-of-centre parties have a parliamentary majority, and to pave the way for new elections against a backdrop of right-wing hysteria.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/owen-jones-if-tories-get-more-seats-labour-get-ready-very-british-coup

I really hope Owen Jones and others are wrong ( other outlets are starting to run with this ). It's all a bit ominous as he says. But I think the key point isn't if the Tories can get a QS through. It's the delay before Labour even get a chance to vote the Tory one down..

I hope it's all pie in the sky anyway. Will have to wait and see how the newspapers/media are playing it on Friday morning.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

Apart from the obvious "Natland rules the World" I really don't know what the SNP/Shakey expect to get from legitimacy, or even what they think the word means, so I asked her.

I can't help you out with that if you don't listen or take in what you read in the newspapers. Why don't you try that for a change instead of relying on me to spoonfeed you. The Tories are trying to say a Labour minority government is not 'legitimate'. How hard can it be to understand that ?

The warnings are a response to briefings coming from Downing Street that Labour will have no legitimacy to form a government if it has secured fewer seats than Cameron, and should let through a Tory Queen’s Speech possibly with the support of the Liberal Democrats.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/04/cameron-to-cling-onto-power-coalition-majority-lib-dem-tories

But Cameron is trying to rewrite the constitution on the fly. Osborne was on ITV last night claiming that the Tories would cling on in Downing Street until it was proven that another government could be formed. That might mean the Tories – if they lack a workable majority – putting down a Queen’s Speech with no expectation of passing it. Even though that’s clearly contrary to the rules set out by the cabinet manual.
The aim would be to put the Labour Party and any other party that might support them on the rack for the best part of a month (whilst a largely Tory-supporting media backs them to the hilt) in the hope that one of them cracks under pressure and then fails to vote down a Tory Queen’s speech.

http://labourlist.org/2015/05/cameron-is-trying-to-rewrite-the-constitution-to-become-a-downing-street-squatter/

TheBlueHorse

Conservative UKIP alliance would be the dream ticket. Very unlikely though.

Rinoa

Here's Ed stating PM has first go at forming a government.

https://youtu.be/ikgI09SpSFE

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

....The Tories are trying to say a Labour minority government is not 'legitimate'. How hard can it be to understand that ?

Not that difficult.

antrobus wrote: »

....

Half of all Britons say it would not be legitimate for the SNP to help Labour form a government, even if the Conservatives won the most MPs (50%). However, over a third (36%) say this would be legitimate.

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/daily-mail-itv-news-political-poll-29-april/

....

Shakethedisease

I was replying to string. Who asked me a question on another thread ( which has already been discussed since Theresa May played the 'legitimacy' card ). The came over here to state I didn't answer it within some sort of hypothetical timeframe he has in mind.

I wasn't outlining 'legitimacy' and what it means here, or opinion polls. I was posting about possible Tory strategy if they gain the largest number of seats, as per the prediction/title of this thread. Since they are signalling strongly, Cameron will remain in office for a while if this is the case.

chucknorris

TheBlueHorse wrote: »

Conservative UKIP alliance would be the dream ticket. Very unlikely though.

Taking a long term view, the short term pain of a labour party supported by the SNP might be my long term best result. Obviously horrendous in the short term, but it might convince most of the English voters that both us (Scotland and England/the rest of the UK) would be much happier and better off apart. Am I alone in thinking this?

.string.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I was replying to string. Who asked me a question on another thread ( which has already been discussed since Theresa May played the 'legitimacy' card ). The came over here to state I didn't answer it within some sort of hypothetical timeframe he has in mind. .

No I did not; if you read my post above and are referring to that, I was merely mentioning that I had asked the question; I wrote nothing about you not having replied - there had been no time for you to reply.

You are wrong on this Shakey.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

No I did not; if you read my post above and are referring to that, I was merely mentioning that I had asked the question; I wrote nothing about you not having replied - there had been no time for you to reply.

You are wrong on this Shakey.

so I asked her.

. . . . . . . .

What are the 'dots' indicating then ? And why even mention it on a separate thread if you knew I hadn't had time to reply yet anyway ? But I have no wish to get into a personal cross thread spat with you. Let's leave it there.