The Election Section: Get Your Crystal Balls Out...

BobQ

The ICM assumption that undecided votes will return to the party they supported in 2010 is quite dubious when you think that in 2010 Clegg was offering a new kind of politics and within days was calling up Cameron saying "Where's the ministerial car you promised me?"

There has been a tendency for Conservatives to support Clegg for months. This has now been helped by Clegg changing his party policy on a referendum before the election has even happened. He is now proposing to depart from his party's manifesto which states that they stand behind the European Union Act they passed stating that a referendum would be triggered by a change in EU treaties that passed additional power to Brussels.

But I can see why a Tory in Sheffield would vote for Clegg if Cameron wanted it. He is basically a Tory.

Masomnia

Mmm according to that where I am is 'very marginal', 3x the national average; in reality I don't think it will be as close this time around, swing to Labour.

buglawton

You're in a close marginal? Can you post the Ebay item number of your vote?

Shakethedisease

Moby wrote: »

I still don't understand how it was 'legitimate' for the tories to govern with the Lib Dems but not legitimate for Labour to govern with the SNP? The hypocrisy of the establishment is breathtaking! I know some say it is different because the purpose of the SNP is to break up the union but in answer to that we are where we are because for years Scotland has been ruled by a Govmt that has no legitimacy in Scotland.....I mean how many tory seats are there in Scotland again?

Well it looks like Dave is planning on squatting for a while anyway. On the basis that the SNP aren't legitimate enough for Labour to work with.

David Cameron is defying Ed Miliband to book removal vans. That is the logistical significance of Conservative signals at the weekend that Mr Cameron plans to stay in No 10 even if he has no overall majority. The political significance is that he is staking an advance claim on legitimacy, because that is what the post-election battle will be about...

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/leaders/article4429961.ece?CMP=Spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-thetimes-_-20150504-_-CommentandOpinion-_-176267146&linkId=13942490

mark55man

Interesting discussion on tactical voting - I still dont like it, and I have never done it, and websites that support it are undemocratic in that they allow undue influence from sources whose affiliation is unclear

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Well it looks like Dave is planning on squatting for a while anyway. On the basis that the SNP aren't legitimate enough for Labour to work with.

Nice little Wings over Scotland meme you've got there about the 'squatting' bit.

Every opinion poll on the subject shows very clearly that the majority of UK voters expect the party with the most seats to form the next government.

The reality is that the Conservatives are likely to have most seats, so under both parliamentary procedure and public opinion they should stay and form a minority govt or coalition and then, if outnumbered, dare the opposition to try and bring them down.

If a Labour opposition choose to do that, it may well be political suicide for them in England, as it is clearly a very unpopular move with most voters.

Up to them I suppose....

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Nice little Wings over Scotland meme you've got there about the 'squatting' bit.

It's not from Wings.. it's from the Times itself. It's twitter timeline today. They've missed a space out. Don't be so quick to jump.. sheesh.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/595241482560364544?lang=en-gb

Every opinion poll on the subject shows very clearly that the majority of UK voters expect the party with the most seats to form the next government.

The reality is that the Conservatives are likely to have most seats, so under both parliamentary procedure and public opinion they should stay and form a minority govt or coalition and then, if outnumbered, dare the opposition to try and bring them down.

If a Labour opposition choose to do that, it may well be political suicide for them in England, as it is clearly a very unpopular move with most voters.

Up to them I suppose....

Opinion polls aren't parliamentary protocol I'm afraid. We elect the MP's. It's the HOC that forms the government. There is NO getting around that.

However, Cameron will already have declared victory whatever, and then there will be weeks of anti-SNP hysterics in the newspapers. Clips of Miliband saying he'd rather lose than 'work with them' and Jim Murphy saying 'the biggest party forms the government'.

The Tories have already delayed a Queens speech until 27th May 'for some reason'. Its whether Miliband has the guts to take office in the face of it that's the question. If the Tories have more seats. Miliband has 14 days to form govt if Cameron can't ( because he really does need a majority ). But it looks like Cameron may try and delay things until the SNP are viewed as not democratic enough to accept in Westminster ( despite having had MP's there for decades )...through a concentrated 'firestorm' campaign whipping it all up.

This will not go down at all well in Scotland if it's electorate send a majority of democratically elected SNP MP's to Westminster in order to represent them. Just 8 months after voting to stay part of it.

I've already been through all this in my previous posts and my first prediction. And I did say that it all depends on seat numbers and other parties too. Will also depend on how the English electorate react. I'm not quite sure why you are 'smiling' ? The Tories if they go through with this strategy, are cutting ties with Scotland. Possibly damaging the union beyond repair.

Anyway, Miliband might defy it all. And he might get more seats anyway.

Moby

Agree with every word. The parliamentary arithmetic will decide what happens next week. Political legitimacy will be looked at through the prism of your own political bias:)
Cameron may say I have first shout at forming a Govmt (say he gets 20 more seats than Labour)....but can he get his Queens speech through HoC? Another thing many people are concentrating on how the SNP are Labour's problem but surely if Cameron attempts to run a minority Govmt they will cause even more hell for him! You also make a good point about the future of the union. During future negotiations the parties cannot ignore what happens in Scotland surely?

Generali

.string. wrote: »

... and, keeping to the "D" theme, I hale from and live in Dorset, which is part of the West Country and part of the ancient Kingdom of Wessex. Mind you, we don't dwell on that as much as some.

Am I to believe that my vote does not have the same value either?

There's this weird idea about that Scotland is uniquely disenfranchised if the majority of the seats in that part of the UK is different to the majority held at Westminster.

People in Surrey, Sussex and Kent are fairly reliable Tory voters but don't feel that democracy has failed them if Labour get in. They just realise that it's grim up North and that grimness must in some way turn you into a Labourist.

Then they just get on with wantonly ripping off the rest of the country with investment banking, advertising and very expensive parking.

.string. wrote: »

Mind you, now that Bournemouth are in the Premier League that should count for something.

AFC Bournemouth now hold the record for the most zimmer frames ever used in a pitch invasion. That's something I think all Cherries can be proud of. Shouldn't you be playing in Boscombe though?

.string.

Apart from the obvious "Natland rules the World" I really don't know what the SNP/Shakey expect to get from legitimacy, or even what they think the word means, so I asked her.

. . . . . . . .


The Pitch in Bournemouth is within spitting distance of the front row of Zimmer frames. A custom build.

Yes some local people still call the club Boscombe.

Bournemouth used to be in Hampshire, but Dorset has taken it over; we're aiming for Scotland as our next acquisition.:)

One of the top scorers is a Scot.