The Election Section: Get Your Crystal Balls Out...

antrobus

Moby wrote: »

I see you ignored my differentiation between a country and region. That is the problem in a nutshell....

I ignored nothing. Someone living in Devon has the same value as someone living in Dumfreesshire; it's asserting the contrary that is the problem in a nutshell.

Moby wrote: »

... Actually Labour is split on PR and your point above is saying the same thing in a different way.....

Yes, Labour split on PR. 99% don't want it.

Moby wrote: »

...I'm saying the tories lose out in seats re. their percentage vote because their vote is less efficiently distributed than Labours. They pile up majorities in certain areas.....

That certainly was the case between 1992 and 2010. It was not the case between 1945 and 1987 for example. It might or might not be the case in 2015. There is nothing inevitable about the Tories 'losing out in seats' - it's a product of a number of factors. Labour getting whipped in Scotland will of itself reduce that disparity by a significant margin.

Moby wrote: »

...The legitimacy question is an anti Labour red herring from the right wing media thrown out as a challenge to a Labour Queens speech. The rule is not seats and votes but who can command a majority in the Commons.

What is it about the statement "If the price of having a Labour government was coalition or a deal with the Scottish National Party, it's not going to happen" that you don't understand?

Why are you banging on about something that Ed Miliband has said will not happen?

.string.

antrobus wrote: »

I ignored nothing. Someone living in Devon has the same value as someone living in Dumfreesshire; it's asserting the contrary that is the problem in a nutshell.'ll

... and, keeping to the "D" theme, I hale from and live in Dorset, which is part of the West Country and part of the ancient Kingdom of Wessex. Mind you, we don't dwell on that as much as some.

Am I to believe that my vote does not have the same value either?

Mind you, now that Bournemouth are in the Premier League that should count for something.

.string.

An interesting development.

'Breathtaking' surge of Tory tactical votes to save Nick Clegg in Hallam – poll

mark55man

.string. wrote: »

An interesting development.

'Breathtaking' surge of Tory tactical votes to save Nick Clegg in Hallam – poll

Don't believe a word of it - suggest you consider which paper this story was printed in and who they support


Although entirely aligned with the depths to which the lib dems have sunk

.string.

A thought.

When people vote tactically and not for their preferred candidate, they need to be sure that they are not damaging their own candidate; I.e. if their own candidate was vying for 1st place you would not vote tactically, I suggest.

Relying on the result of the last election would be to crude a source of information to make the decision to vote tactically, so this is where constituency polls get into the act, potentially in this election in a big way.

We will see.

buglawton

Precisely.
So enter you postcode here to start
http://m.voterpower.org.uk/

michaels

buglawton wrote: »

Precisely.
So enter you postcode here to start
http://m.voterpower.org.uk/

This is based on 2010 results though which for instance show my constituency being much more marginal than near by Stevenage, in fact the opposite is true.

.string.

Thanks buglawton & michaels - it seems like the tools are in place if they are married to constituency polling.

If this (tactical voting) was common, it could result in a voting pattern similar to a debased form of PR - a bit like that scheme the LibDems came up with which tended to favour most people's second choice. (IMHO)

TickersPlaysPop

Election pledges are useless when we are heading towards a coalition?

buglawton

michaels wrote: »

This is based on 2010 results though which for instance show my constituency being much more marginal than near by Stevenage, in fact the opposite is true.

Um, yes, the voterpower site had some technical difficulty with basing the marginality rating on the 2015 result.