The Election Section: Get Your Crystal Balls Out...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

A bit of fun....

And I'll preface this with the admission that I've put very little time into thinking about it, and had a few glasses of a rather tasty single malt this evening, so my Crystal Ball may be a tad foggy.....

But on May 8th I think the likeliest outcome as of today is that Cameron will still be PM.

Here's why....

1) There are still more undecided voters now than in any election for a long time. Between 30% and 40% of potential voters. A poll last week found that 90%+ of them view the economy as the most important factor. These are the all important swing voters from previous elections, and to date, by pandering to their base on the far left and far right both major parties have left them uncomfortable. But the Conservatives score better than Labour by almost a factor of three in these voters assessment of who is more likely to achieve economic growth. So I think they'll break Tory at the last minute.

2) UKIP support has been declining slowly since the European elections, and continues to do so in almost all the polls. When push comes to shove, many people currently polling for UKIP will likely realise there is only a choice between two PM's - and UKIP have pulled twice as many voters from the Tories as from Labour. As much as the ex-tory Kippers dislike Cameron, they despise Miliband more. Some of them will return to the fold at the last minute.

3) The SNP will not get a clean sweep of Scotland.... I'm guessing high 40's, both in terms of voter share and number of seats. Labour are going to get a kicking... but there will be enough tactical voting to save a handful of Lib Dem and Tory seats.

4) Parliamentary procedure. The tories as largest party will get the first shot at government, and only a no confidence vote or end of 5 year term can expel them. Labour won't risk a no confidence vote and another election they'd certainly lose. They'll judge it more prudent to have an informal grand coalition where they force enough concessions from the Tories to get the essentials through, while spending years promoting themselves, sniping from opposition, and rebuilding their election war chest.

I could be totally wrong of course, and this time next week we might have the Millipede in Number 10 with Salmond and Sturgeon flying down from the Socialist Republic of Glaswegistan in Air Farce One....

But if so there's always emigration.

Jason74

I would have to agree wirth much of this, and largely for the exact reasons you describe. The only other factor that I think might come into play is how much SNP support might drop away at the last minute as left leaning SNP voters realise that an SNP vote might actuallyhelp keep Cameron in power. Actually being in Scotland, you're probably be better placed than me to judge what will happen there.

I think that the most likely outcome is a continuation of the current coalition, but with the Lib Dems getting more concessions from the Tories this time round despite having less seats. And even as someone who is generally left leaning, and who supports the bulk of the programme that Milliband is proposing, I don't think that's by any means the worst possible result. Compared either to a majority Tory Government with its programme to demonise the poorest in society and take from them to give to those who already have the most (an outcome that would imho eventually see civil disorder on a scale that makes 2011 look like a walk in the park), or a government propped up by a party whos aim is the break up of the UK, the current coalition looks like quite a good bet, esp. if the Lib Dem voice is a bit stronger than last time around.

Out of interest, there's a good piece in the Telegraph today, giving a slightly more academic explanation for the arguments you put forward.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11573434/David-Cameron-is-still-on-course-for-Downing-Street.html

padington

50 - 1 for a Cameron, Clegg, 'Fatage et twois' at paddy power ...

buglawton

Finally got round to watching leaders Question Time that was aired a couple of nights ago. BBC iPlayer shows it near top of most popular, not sure if that means there's a high rate of catch up viewing of this.

The critics I'd seen commenting on their performances seemed to have downplayed Cameron's rather solid performance. I suspect he got a couple of marginals based on that alone.

padington

buglawton wrote: »

Finally got round to watching leaders Question Time that was aired a couple of nights ago. BBC iPlayer shows it near top of most popular, not sure if that means there's a high rate of catch up viewing of this.

The critics I'd seen commenting on their performances seemed to have downplayed Cameron's rather solid performance. I suspect he got a couple of marginals based on that alone.

Clegg's the one that's coming through consistently well if you ask me. He might even get my vote, which frankly, I'm amazed about.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Jason74 wrote: »

I would have to agree wirth much of this, and largely for the exact reasons you describe.

Thanks, it'll be interesting anyway.

The only other factor that I think might come into play is how much SNP support might drop away at the last minute as left leaning SNP voters realise that an SNP vote might actually help keep Cameron in power. Actually being in Scotland, you're probably be better placed than me to judge what will happen there.

Unfortunately not.

Don't get me wrong, the SNP will likely not do as well on the day as current polls, the media and many of their supporters are expecting, but I think it won't be the far left that pulls back from them it'll be the middle ground.

There is a concerted tactical campaign at the far left, where Scottish Greens, Socialists, and others are being urged to lend their vote to the new crop of very young and very far left SNP candidates.

There is also a concerted tactical campaign going on amongst the three opposition Unionist parties (who between them are still a majority in most places), to shift support temporarily to whatever candidate is most likely to beat the SNP.

There are a great number of Unionist swing voters in the middle ground that may just about feel comfortable enough with the previous assurances that another Indyref is off the table for a generation to send a protest vote message to Westminster as is happening elsewhere. But a lot of them are also uncomfortable with the hard left swing the party is taking.

They loved Salmond's triangulation approach, but are massively turned off by some of Sturgeon's new found socialist backers. And they genuinely dislike the aggressive shenanigans of the far left radical indy movement, although, many have stuck their heads in the sand and remain in denial that they are now firmly associated with it if they vote SNP.

And then there is the surprisingly diverse core SNP supporters, who range quite dramatically from the ex-Labour socialists in the central belt working classes that are Nicola Sturgeons core base, to the Tartan Tories of the North and East that are Alex Salmond's base. A lot of the latter in particular voted No in the indyref last year, but will return to the fold now for the GE. But they may have a turnout problem both in the housing schemes in the Central cities and in the rural North....

It's remarkably hard to call it in Scotland as the picture is just so confusing.

We'll see in a week I guess....

I think that the most likely outcome is a continuation of the current coalition

I'd agree, and I'd also agree it's been a pretty good middle ground compared to the alternatives.

Out of interest, there's a good piece in the Telegraph today, giving a slightly more academic explanation for the arguments you put forward.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11573434/David-Cameron-is-still-on-course-for-Downing-Street.html

Very interesting piece, thanks for that.

It reckons a current 2-3 point lead, plus a boost from UKIP and Undecideds of another 3-4 points, for somewhere around a 6 point Tory lead on the day.

I suspect that due to concentration of vote that'll still only result in a coalition, but I'd not be unhappy about that result if we get it....

kabayiri

padington wrote: »

Clegg's the one that's coming through consistently well if you ask me. He might even get my vote, which frankly, I'm amazed about.

Personally, I think the student loans issue was overplayed by public and media.

Clegg had to make a call at the last election. You are always going to upset someone.

This is preferable to a "Red line issue over Trident" which could paralyse discussion on defence budgetary spend. How can a party potentially representing just a few percent of the voterbase have a Red line issue and hold sway over the other 95%?

I think Politicians forget they work for us sometimes.
"Politicians. Know your place!"

Moby

It's all speculation but here goes. I predict a series of little battles all over the country with uncertain outcomes. Swing is not going to be uniform. Most polling suggests a 4% Con-Lab swing nationally – higher in London and the North-West, lower in the Midlands, West Country, etc. A swing of that order brings Labour’s top 59 target seats into play. Ashcrofts marginal polling is helpful here.

From the point of view of the parliamentary arithmetic, it makes sense to focus only on Coalition-held seats, i.e. to exclude either Green/PC-held seats or likely losses to SNP – as these will in any case form part of an anti-Tory bloc. There are 4 of these, leaving 55.
Ashcroft polls, collective informed non-partisan opinion on UKPR, etc., suggests Labour are favourites in 39 of these 55. “Favourites” here ranges from nailed-on gains to solid prospects: seats Labour can reasonably be optimistic of gaining.
Another 8 seem possible Lab gains, but too close to call (Thurrock, Plymouth S, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Nuneaton, Northampton N, Bury N, S Swindon, Stevenage). Let’s assume Labour win half of these: 4.
8 appear lost causes (Pudsey, Gloucester, Kingswood, Blackpool N, Worcester, Loughborough, Warwick & Leamington, Pendle).
Giving us a total of 43 prospective gains.

Beyond this point, again surveying the polling evidence and informed opinion, Labour’s prospects drop off sharply (suggesting the 4% C-L swing figure is broadly accurate). Labour can claim to be favourites in only 3 of the 39 Coalition seats between 60-100 on their target list, all Lib Dem-held (Redcar, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cardiff Central). They seem to have a shout, of varying degrees of plausibility, in only 10 other seats in this tranche, all Con-held. Let’s give them 2 of these.
Giving a total of 48 gains from the coalition. Adding these to Labour’s starting-point of 256 and subtracting the maximal 40 losses to the SNP gives us 264.
[There may be other LD outliers, including of course Sheffield Hallam . But not factoring these in here.]

So the notional Labour-allied/supporting bloc (Lab 264 + SNP 55 + SDLP 3 + PC 3 + Green 1 + Respect 1) comes in at 327. (Plus possibly NI Alliance 1 & NI Independent 1.)
Bearing in mind the 5 Sinn Fein absentees + the speaker, it’s daylight – just – over any conceivable Tory-led bloc (and arguably more ideologically homogeneous,:beer: though that’s another matter). It also shows (a) the “legitimacy gap”, about which we can expect to hear a good deal from the Tories and their press allies come May 8th, would be pretty slim. See Dan Hodges Telegraph article above. Why does he hate Miliband so much! (Of course those of us in the know won't say too much about how Dan used to be in the Labour Party but came to a rather sticky end and then started writing for the Torygraph;) )–

On these figures, the Tories would be looking at 278 seats (that’s assuming 27 LDs), just 14 more than Labour; (b) how tight the margins are: how even a small shift in the polls to the Tories in the final few days could make a big difference in the outcome but don't forget in 2010 the swing in the last few days was towards Labour.

Whatever the result Ed has had a great campaign and he has made sure that it will be tight enough to give Cameron major problems in getting his programme through

kabayiri

padington wrote: »

50 - 1 for a Cameron, Clegg, 'Fatage et twois' at paddy power ...

Lemme see...

Cameron - to call the shots.

Clegg - to present the moderate view.

Farage - to act as 'attack dog' when it comes to fronting up with the Eurozone crowd.

What's not to like?

Moby

kabayiri wrote: »

Lemme see...

Cameron - to call the shots.

Clegg - to present the moderate view.

Farage - to act as 'attack dog' when it comes to fronting up with the Eurozone crowd.

What's not to like?

Let me tell you...... Farage may not get elected if you look at Ashcrofts latest poll in Thanet. Clegg is also currently a point behind in Hallam....but let's assume he get's back. What support do you think there will be for him within his own ranks to go back into a coalition with a sweaty lipped used car salesman who uses his own son's illness as a prop to show his genuine concern for the future of the NHS? Cameron really can't hide what he is can he! Yesterday a slip of the tongue led to his 'career defining' slip and he refers to the poor sod's drafted in to listen to his drivel as Chaps and Chapesses!

vivatifosi

kabayiri wrote: »

Lemme see...

Cameron - to call the shots.

Clegg - to present the moderate view.

Farage - to act as 'attack dog' when it comes to fronting up with the Eurozone crowd.

What's not to like?

I think this is a likely scenario as an alliance. I do wonder though how Clegg and Farage will manage as their views on pretty much everything pull in opposite directions.