The Election Section: Get Your Crystal Balls Out...

BobQ

Moby wrote: »

Every current poll of poll and resultant projection gives Cameron only a minority rule option: if the rest decide not to vote him down. I don’t think ‘the rest’ will let him hang on- particularly if Labour plus SNP have enough. If things improve enough for him to have a small majority with or without LD support (and they would have to improve quite drastically on current polling- with 5 days to go…) then he will merely become John Major part two.
Why would he want to do that?? Why would he want to limp along held hostage by his paleo-right?? After 5 years as leader and 5 years as PM with- at least on his own terms if not others- a moderately successful record.
He’s already said he does not want to serve another term. Surely he’d rather depart the stage just as the manure tips all over it- and somebody else’s head?

He has already indicated he will not stick around for another campaign. If by some miracle he ends up with a 30 seat majority. I suspect he will do his duty and soldier own. But with a minority government, I suspect he will go within a year. As he said the other day people need to understand that this election is "career changing". So reassuring that he is more worried about his career.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

mark88man wrote: »

Financial illiteracy is saying that two incomes of £45K get to keep all child benefit whereas one income of £70K and one of £20K don't get a sausage

Financial illiteracy is thinking the country can afford to pay benefits to anyone on 70K a year.

Or anyone on 45K for that matter, but I guess the line had to be drawn somewhere.

BobQ

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No, I think the Tories are planning for a second election in October. Nothing to do with Grand Coalitions. If they think the SNP/UKIP are PITA to work with.. can you imagine what they think about 240-280 angry Labour MP's ?

I think the Fixed Term Parliament Act will prevent that. Under what circumstances can you see no grouping being able to survive a vote of confidence?

BobQ

In discussing the issue of which grouping will have the confidence of Parliament, much has been made of the fact that Sinn Fein never attend the Commons.

Have their been any statements recently to confirm the position as it is not in their manifesto. Could it be that they would attend if it made a difference?

Generali

BobQ wrote: »

The undecided

Clearly any undecided voter might make a decision but not sure you can be that confident that this will see a late swing. The only real example of this happening is in 1992 which was a time when Labour were all over the place after years of Thatcher policies. The economy may well be important but people may regard the continuing austerity or the rising inequality as a factor just as much as the Cameron argument of hang on to Nanny for fear of something worse.

Falling UKIP.
Yes this may be a factor. Apparently there is statistical evidence that the online polls suggest a higher UKIP but lower Tory vote than the telephone polls. Nobody knows why this is but it is a factor in whether the polls conclude a small Tory lead or neck and neck outcome. But there is always the risk that some will return to the fold but what matters is whether this happens in seats where this has an effect.

SNP and tactical voting. Yes there could be some but so can there be tactical voting in the rest of UK. It could benefit Labour of course. Ashcroft has suggested that Conservative and Lib Dem Unionists may be voting Labour to stop the SNP from having as much influence.

Parliament - I agree Cameron will have first shot but I think Labour, SNP and those to the left would lose al credibility if they did not vote against a Queens Speech that contained the policies in their manifesto. You may be right that Labour would not force a vote of no confidence but what would they do if the SNP did? It is not clear that the Lib Dems would support Cameron. Clegg is desperate, he has even unilaterally changed LibDem policy on an EU Referendum in an effort to get some UKIP/ Con voters to support him in Sheffield (Cable is apparently livid).

I believe the Conservatives may well do better as the phone polls suggest and some UKIP supporters return home. But the real uncertainty will be tactical voting across the UK. I have heard more people speculate on doing that than ever before.

The bit that everyone seems to be missing is that the vote doesn't have to be Aye or Nay. You can simply pass through both lobbies which is the Parliamentary equivalent (these days) of abstaining. Alternatively you could just leave the Chamber before the division bell is rung.

It would be quite reasonable for the smaller party of Lab or Cons to say, "We don't support this Queen's Speech but we support a functioning Government for the United Kingdom. Therefore we refuse to support or reject the speech but will instead work with [despised other lot] in order to facilitate the smooth continuance of Government in this country".

You'd keep the current budget and then probably mostly just move spending along with inflation/GDP growth. Get the deficit down a little bit perhaps by increasing spending closer to CPI than GDP growth. There'd be plenty of political posturing for the cameras but it could be made to work well enough.

Hell, Belgium went without a Government for over a year. If they can with their racial divisions, I'm sure that Lab and Cons can.

Generali

BobQ wrote: »

In discussing the issue of which grouping will have the confidence of Parliament, much has been made of the fact that Sinn Fein never attend the Commons.

Have their been any statements recently to confirm the position as it is not in their manifesto. Could it be that they would attend if it made a difference?

Of course if Sinn Fein are prepared to swear the oath of allegiance:

"I...swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth, her heirs and successors, according to law. So help me God."

Then they are welcome to take their seats. As the Good Friday Agreement seems pretty well bedded in then I think it is perfectly plausible that one day they will.

Traditionally, left wing Labour MPs used to swear the Oath with their fingers crossed behind their backs!

http://www.sinnfein.ie/files/2015/Westminster_Manifesto_2015_web.pdf

They don't actually say that they won't take up their seats but they kinda imply it I guess in this bit of the manifesto:

Sinn F!in will be relentless in seeking the best deal for all our people. We have achieved more in direct negotiations with the British Government than other parties have in decades on the back benches at Westminster.

This election is an opportunity to take a stand against the Westminster politics of austerity and for a vision of a united, prosperous, equal and inclusive Ireland.

The Sinn Fein manifesto basically reads like a mini-me version of the SNP one only with references to a united Ireland. They are quite cunning when talking about spending. As NI is such a tiny part of the UK, ending 'austerity' in NI would be incredibly cheap. They quite reasonably state that the extra £1.5bn they are looking for isn't even a rounding error of GDP (I paraphrase).

mark55man

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Financial illiteracy is thinking the country can afford to pay benefits to anyone on 70K a year.

Or anyone on 45K for that matter, but I guess the line had to be drawn somewhere.

I don't entirely disagree, although the child benefit is one of the most fundamental benefits - and whether its right or fair for a family (where most children are) to receive support with a family income of £90K or £70K or whatever - its definitely unfair that the division of such earnings between man and wife should make a difference of over £2k a year in post tax income

Kind of makes the numbers bandied around in the press about £1k worse off over 5 years. I will be £10k worse off thanks to the coalition. So that's why I am voting against the Tories

oh yes, and Gove - my children are not only deprived relative to previous regimes but gove has so seriously mucked about the education system that are disadvantaged against the cohorts above and below

oh yes and IDS - heartless !!!!!!

oh yes and Cledd - lying bustard

buglawton

So will Wiliam and Kate now be claiming extra child benefit?

CLAPTON

mark88man wrote: »

Kind of makes the numbers bandied around in the press about £1k worse off over 5 years. I will be £10k worse off thanks to the coalition. So that's why I am voting against the Tories

truly a Thatcherite child of our times

oh yes and IDS - heartless !!!!!!

oh yes and Cledd - lying bustard

one is in awe of the finely argued, logical analysis of these complicated issues.

One is forced to admit the pre Gove education was a model of learning and erudition.

Rinoa

Should Labour prevail, it's comforting to know the country's finances will be in safe hands.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3065618/Exposed-Ed-Balls-cheque-bouncer-wants-run-Britain-s-finances-just-six-months-ago-couldn-t-write-good-cheque-150-glazier-TWICE.html

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl: