Stock Market crash-not if but when?

System

If we knew when it was going to crash we would all be millionaires, but time is definitely running out.

Its pretty difficult to put your money into safe assets (excluding cash) as the outlook for bonds is pretty grim.

edinburgher

Its pretty difficult to put your money into safe assets (excluding cash) as the outlook for bonds is pretty grim.

Or we accept that peaks and troughs are inevitable and stick to our investing strategies, avoiding chasing the stupid money into 'safe' assets that under perform.

Unfortunately I think central banks can keep this particular bubble inflated for a while yet.

kidmugsy

kingmonkey wrote: »

5th August 2015 10:43am BST

Nah. Sept-Oct more likely.

Jsscmm

kidmugsy wrote: »

Nah. Sept-Oct more likely.

One analyst being interviewed on morning star last week suggested that U.S. Fed rate rises were likely to be either June or September this year. Only one analyst but they have to go up at some point and whilst each year has been 'the one' for a while, the strength of the U.S. Economy would suggest that this timeline is plausible.

Doesn't mean a crash of course, but would suggest a correction, especially in bonds I would guess.

agent69

masonic wrote: »

But I doubt the S&P 500 or many other world markets will be affected much by what happens on this small island.

But they are affected by what happens in Greece?

masonic

agent69 wrote: »

But they are affected by what happens in Greece?

Are you asking me or telling me? I don't think the majority of world markets will be affected by what happens in Greece either. Although something that affects the whole of Europe will be more influential than a domestic UK issue. On Greece, UK and European markets will be significantly affected, but US, Asian and emerging markets won't. That's the point of global diversification.

Aretnap

agent69 wrote: »

But they are affected by what happens in Greece?

The two situations aren't really comparable.

Greece is a basket case which is (or was) about to default on a large number of bonds, potentially making a number or Europe's banks immediately insolvent. That's the sort of thing that could have caused a big worldwide shock. The risk is (allegedly) better contained these days, so a Greek default and Euro-exit might now not have as big an effect on the markets as you might think.

Under a Labour government Britain might see somewhat lower growth, somewhat higher inflation and/or somewhat lower company profits for a while. That's no big deal from a global perspective. Election rhetoric aside, we're a long way from the Greek scenario.

In any event there are three possible outcomes to the UK election - a Conservative-led coalition and the possibility of an EU exit, a Labour-led coalition with higher taxes and borroowing and a bit of anti-business rhetoric, or an unstable minority government. All three outcomes are rather unfavourable from a business perspective, so an unfavourable result is (or at least should be) priced into the markets already.

dealer_wins

Crashes are great for the majority of long term regular investers, pension funds etc

Can be bad for someone approaching retirement who wasnt wise enough to gradulally reduce exposure to the market over the preceeding 5 years or so though!

Personally I dont see a huge crash coming in the next 2 years. Even if Labour win they normally take 4 years to set the UK back 10 years financially lol

mike88

There will be a crash; there always is but when is the question we would all like answers to but never will. A crash is the time for inexperienced investors to offload and for wise investors to pile in.

tejero23f

"Sell in May and go away; don't come back till St Leger day (14th September)

There could be even a bigger reason this time to heed the old adage,
The General election could see international investors sell UK assets, and an interest rate rise in America (after the fed meets in June) could trigger a market slide. This could prove a long hot summer for stock Markets-

You won't hear this from fund managers though keen to receive commission.

When the successful investor Nathan Mayer Rothschild was asked how he got to be so rich, he said:

"I always sold too soon".