Vanguard LifeStrategy....

Gadfium

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

So I'm looking to Asia and Emerging Markets ... A tracker may perform reasonably well for you, but there is the potential to do much better while these regions are opening up (as many US investors did in the early-mid 20th century)

There's the rub. "..there's potential to do much better" (bolding mine, to emphasise the important word...). Of course there is the potential, but the difficulty is trying to spot that in advance. If only we could spot that then we'd have all our money in the fund that grew 98% last year. I'm guessing that you didn't? I know that I certainly didn't.

Similarly, if only I could identify the winner of the 3:30 at Chepstow before the race is run, then I'd make a fortune.

TheTracker

Latest in my series of Ryan Futuristic's incompatible conflicting statements.

Jan 26th 2015:

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

My Kotak India Mid-Cap's up 98% in 12 months

Dec 18th 2014:

Ryan_Futuristics wrote:

India's got great prospects, but I wouldn't be tempted to invest directly in India myself as the growth is looking quite well priced in (and it's just had a period as the strongest performing region)

ChopperST

Ryan I think its time you posted your asset allocation and performance on here to back up some of your claims. You do seem to fluctuate wildly in some of your posts and I have never seen you post a loser.

To help legitimise your claims why don't you post up a thread with your current portfolio and up date it say quarterly to demonstrate your performance - that would help add some credibility to your claims?

You are clearly very anti passive investing and specifically Tim Hale. The reason his book is held in high regard, as is Vanguard's work is the fact that it is backed up with empirical evidence over the long term. It doesn't profess to be the best strategy out there, indeed it professes to be the average, most people can't afford to take the chance of losing money so they adopt his approach to lose the fewest points along a bumpy journey.

You clearly feel you have the skills to beat the market, using CAPE, momentum investing etc. etc. so help us all out and start a blog akin the monevator slow and steady passive portfolio and update it a few times a year.

It would help us all see you are indeed putting your money where your mouth is and would be an excellent comparison for new investors and those of us who have been at it a while to be able to evaluate the difference in performance, because at the moment you just seem to cherry pick the best performers and illustrate how you are consistently beating the market.

Personally I think you make some good points and have said many times I agree with you regarding bonds and the use of P2P as an alternative. However as the Tracker has highlighted above you may just be a very clever troll with two directly conflicting posts within a month of each other.

InvestInPoker

TheTracker wrote: »

Latest in my series of Ryan Futuristic's incompatible conflicting statements.

Jan 26th 2015:



Dec 18th 2014:

Archi_Bald

ChopperST wrote: »

You clearly feel you have the skills to beat the market, using CAPE, momentum investing etc. etc. so help us all out and start a blog akin the monevator slow and steady passive portfolio and update it a few times a year.

It's somehow amazing that somebody with skills like Ryan hangs out on the MSE forum. Instead of making huge amounts of money as the founder and owner of a multi-fund management firm.

ChopperST

Archi_Bald wrote: »

It's somehow amazing that somebody with skills like Ryan hangs out on the MSE forum. Instead of making huge amounts of money as the founder and owner of a multi-fund management firm.

He may well have, I think its fair to give him the opportunity to prove his skills. I'd be happy to post my strategy but I'm accepting I'm going to be Mr Average and am not expecting stellar returns, simply to try and beat inflation and add a little extra on top.

TheTracker

ChopperST wrote: »

Ryan I think its time you posted your asset allocation and performance on here to back up some of your claims. You do seem to fluctuate wildly in some of your posts and I have never seen you post a loser.

To help legitimise your claims why don't you post up a thread with your current portfolio and up date it say quarterly to demonstrate your performance - that would help add some credibility to your claims?

I'll take a stab at what we have learnt.

He holds 50%+ in Cash / Fixed Income. In November 2014 he said he is "Moving 10%" of his portfolio into FundingCircle, yet in January 2015 he said his fixed income is "all P2P". That sounds inconsistent to me unless he means 40% cash and 10% P2P. Either way, he gets around 7% from his P2P.

On equities, he has said he has 20+ holdings. He recently declared
* Woodford (up 6% for RF in 2014, 12% of his portfolio)
* JPM New Europe (down 7.5%)
* Sanditon Europe (up 1%)
* First State Asia Pacific leaders (up 26%, "my best performer")

He has also declared holdings in
* Fidelity Global Property
* L&G UK Property PAIF
* BioTech Growth Trust
* AXA BioTech
* Neptune European Opps
* Lazard Emerging Markets
* M&G Global Emerging
* Vanguard Equity Income (yes really)
* Kotak India Mid Cap
* FirstState Infrastructure

As of September 2014 his "largest holdings" were
* Murray International ("core holding", 20% holding in October 2014)
* Edinburgh Trust (Woodford plus Edin was 40% in October 2014, but later said Woodford was 12%)

He often "favours" or "likes" or is "tempted by" or "contemplating" or "considering" funds without saying if he has any, including
* Newton Asian Income
* Slater Growth

A lot of it just doesn't add up. While has said he is 50%+ in fixed income in January, in October he said 40% in funds "like" Woodford and Edin, 20% in trusts "like" Edin, and 25% in global value sub-portfolio, whatever that is, with "the rest" being in Asia. Perhaps that's a split of his equities.

In October 2014 he said his portfolio was "98% equities" with "the rest In property" that he was "selling off", but later he declared he holds two different property funds within that 2%. Another inconsistency, potentially explained by talking about different portfolios such as ISA S&S and others.

He says 70% of his holdings are "good income payers".

Somehow from there he expects "10-12% above inflation is a realistic aim for my portfolio" which seems ambitious given the above information. He has said "the only income I'm earning this tax year will be from investments (and unless Russia stages its comeback early, that shouldn't put me in the higher rate tax band), so including C- lending bands shouldn't be a problem", which leads one to assume a portfolio of less than £500k.

While he doesn't have a job, he comes from a maths/computing background. He hopes to start a film production company. Finally, he has volunteered that he drives a car that costs 18k/year to insure and maintain.


But he seems to make trades more often than I tie my shoelaces, so who really knows....

Ryan_Futuristics

Gadfium wrote: »

There's the rub. "..there's potential to do much better" (bolding mine, to emphasise the important word...). Of course there is the potential, but the difficulty is trying to spot that in advance. If only we could spot that then we'd have all our money in the fund that grew 98% last year. I'm guessing that you didn't? I know that I certainly didn't.

Similarly, if only I could identify the winner of the 3:30 at Chepstow before the race is run, then I'd make a fortune.

Yeah but it gets much easier as soon as you take a step outside the US markets

For example, in this study they found simply picking an Emerging Markets fund on past performance is enough to predict an average 2-4% long-term outperformance (and, with compounding, 3% outperformance is night-and-day)

http://www.robeco.com/images/on-the-performance-of-active-versus-passive-emerging-marke.pdf


It's easier in the UK ... Simply picking funds from Hargreaves' Wealth 150 list would've put the odds well in your favour since it launched in 2003 (in the case of UK smaller companies, giving you almost 50% greater returns)

http://www.hl.co.uk/news/investment-times/2014/11/150-ways-to-make-more-of-your-money


Even in the over-invested US, simply pick a Vanguard active fund (because it at least guarantees low fund charges) and you'll put the odd in your favour of outperforming their own trackers




etc etc

Ryan_Futuristics

TheTracker wrote: »

Latest in my series of Ryan Futuristic's incompatible conflicting statements.

Jan 26th 2015:

Dec 18th 2014:

Inspector Crusoe over here!

My investment portfolio's all weighted towards value - which India's not ... Investing is basically holding a long position, because you don't expect it to crash or underperform in the foreseeable future

However I do trade India (and the US) - and the holdings of my trading portfolio are:

Kotak Indian Mid-Caps
AXA BioTech
Fidelity Global Property
FirstState Infrastructure

But they change and switch around - and I haven't held India for a whole year, but the half a year I've held it has seen most of those 98% gains


EDIT:

As for portfolio shape - I do switch between talking about my S&S portfolio (which is 98% S&S, 1% property), and my overall assets (of which S&S typically occupy between 25 and 50%)

Hang on ...

edinburgher

Surely he means Clouseau? :rotfl: