Vanguard LifeStrategy....

Ryan_Futuristics

enthusiasticsaver wrote: »

Goodness that is a good return and I have read that Asia is doing well. I am researching some satellite funds at the moment to invest in alongside my VG LS60 so shall look at that one.

What do you think about Japan? Their economy has been in the doldrums for so long but I have been reading that it has started to pick up now.

TCA wrote: »

Look at it of course, but you want to be picking the winner for the next 12 months, not the last 12 months. I don't have any knowledge of the Indian stock market, but just because it had its best year since 2009, doesn't mean it'll have another one.

Yeah, chasing past performance is generally the first big mistake most investors make - to some extent it's a better bet going with the worst performers (i.e. better being at the bottom of a market that's going to rise than top of one about to fall)

Although Richard Driehaus famously said "far more money is made buying high and selling at even higher prices" - but he's a momentum investor so follows slightly different principles

A lot of funds are overweight India this year, and it could well be a top performer for another 12 months, but it's getting expensive

http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation?SortBy=Shiller_PE

Ideally you want the regions that come up cheap AND growing ... But otherwise a good Asia Pacific fund (for me) would balance out the US and developed bias in the Vanguard funds

black_taxi_2

after charges costs

up £11.10 since the 16th

Ryan_Futuristics

Oh yeah, Japan

Well a lot of investors think it's one of the most undervalued regions, and that Abe's going to do whatever's necessary to get the economy moving again

Valuations are mixed - it can look very cheap or quite expensive ... My bigger long-term concern is the rapidly ageing demographics - they're shipping in South Americans by the boat-load to try and avoid the country becoming an old people's home

And this may be a glimpse at what's soon to come in the UK and US, as birthrates drop and people live longer (and it's one reason there's such a rush into BioTech shares - people want to profit from this ageing demographic, when many other sectors are likely to be negatively impacted by it)

So I'm not as sold on Japan as others are as a long-term investment - I prefer regions like China, Singapore, India

I am buying Japan at the moment, while markets are rising, but with a plan to exit as soon as there's any uncertainty

Most my longer-term exposure to Asia is via Newton Asian Income and First State Asia Pacific Leaders (the later I particularly like for its conservative approach, and investment in very high quality global companies)

Borrowedtune

I have had 0% Japan in my portfolio for a few years now. The sound-bite that always sticks in my mind about Japan is that adult diapers is a bigger market there than babies' nappies, which doesn't bode well for the long-term.


Like some others I'm a big fan of NAI and FSAPL. I also have a decent serving of Aberdeen Asian Smaller.

Gadfium

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

But I always think the Tim Hale approach is almost depressingly resigned to that - and taken as a religious tenet, resigns you to rather modest returns and potentially not learning as much as you could

But not everyone has your ability to pick winners, or indeed, your fascination with Mr Woodford . I know that I certainly don't have your skill and abilities, so in my case, I am happy to get a return >than cash and with a minimal injection of effort.

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

My Kotak India Mid-Cap's up 98% in 12 months

Real growth's to be found in Asia - the world's all shifting East

Lest you be accused of cherry-picking your data (after all, it's easy, in hindsight, to pick the one that you did get right and use that as an example to support your claim, whilst ignoring the ones that dont), I do wonder why you didn't have ALL your money in this fund? The you would have doubled it. Of course, you will have diversified, which means that other parts of your portfolio hasn't returned such amazing gains. Which leads us back, in a way, to the central tenant of Hales' book- that it is virtually impossible to pick the winners all the time, and that on average, its nigh-on impossible to beat the market on a long-term.

I did hold some Asian Small Caps for a while. It declined by 15% or so, and stayed there.

edinburgher

I don't have a view on whether this is good or bad, but from posting histories on here it does at least seem to be happening.

I'd say it's generally a bad thing, because none of us are Mr Woodford, Buffett etc.

The 'maturity' path for investing seems to be performing a bit of a Benjamin Button. People start out relatively fearful and taking advice from sensible sources who back up their arguments with data, they end up their days taking advice from newspaper headlines and railing against conspiracies :rotfl:

So, should I be investing in oil/gold/mule carriers?

ColdIron

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

I have the LS 60/40 mix. Can't remember when I invested but it's up by just over 11%.

While this may not be stellar performance I am pleased none the less.

I like this investment

I seem to remember you grizzling about it over a year ago saying it was the worst performing of your investments (mostly shares IIRC), I thought you had sold up

In_For_A_Penny_2

ColdIron wrote: »

I seem to remember you grizzling about it over a year ago saying it was the worst performing of your investments (mostly shares IIRC), I thought you had sold up

Remember that too -

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

I hold the much cliched and acclaimed Vanguard Life Strategy fund on here and it's the worst performer in my portfolio. A total doozie.

It has languished at a loss of -4% for ages - now sitting at -0.13%

Broken_Biscuits

takesyourchances wrote: »

My VLS 60% in my ISA is at 15% gain. I have satellite funds around it, EM, Small Caps, Asia etc and other investments in other accounts, but equally pleased with the VLS, I won't be selling but holding onto all of my holdings for the long term.

its probably the easiest way to get started in investing. Its got a fair mix in its allocation and agree that you can top up any areas you consider it to be weak in.

i know a number of people through work who would be too scared to invest if not for vanguard's lifestrategy.

as for selling it now. You could. But its more of a drip and hold fund... Perhaps for life?

Ryan_Futuristics

Gadfium wrote: »

But not everyone has your ability to pick winners, or indeed, your fascination with Mr Woodford . I know that I certainly don't have your skill and abilities, so in my case, I am happy to get a return >than cash and with a minimal injection of effort.



Lest you be accused of cherry-picking your data (after all, it's easy, in hindsight, to pick the one that you did get right and use that as an example to support your claim, whilst ignoring the ones that dont), I do wonder why you didn't have ALL your money in this fund? The you would have doubled it. Of course, you will have diversified, which means that other parts of your portfolio hasn't returned such amazing gains. Which leads us back, in a way, to the central tenant of Hales' book- that it is virtually impossible to pick the winners all the time, and that on average, its nigh-on impossible to beat the market on a long-term.

I did hold some Asian Small Caps for a while. It declined by 15% or so, and stayed there.

Well the thing you've got to realise with the "Efficient Market" lot is the research really comes from the US stock market

The S&P500's so heavily analysed and traded, it's very hard to beat (and cap-weighted indexes do no better than those weighted on how many board members wear bow-ties - in fact on average slightly worse, because cap-weighted's more heavily invested)

But if you'd been in France, for example, investing in the CAC40, you'd have done much worse - you'd probably done better in a completely different asset class for decades

Now think of every different stock market as a fund ... The fact the S&P500's performed well in the past doesn't mean it's going to perform equally well in the future

In fact it would be very unlikely, because the real growth now is coming from the East

But as soon as we leave the US markets, we're in totally different territory ... We're in under-invested markets; markets lacking data; markets that misreport their own fundamentals, markets that are difficult to access - and these are far from efficient

These are countries like India, where most the population don't even have a bank account yet ... They're a LONG way from a 1950s America, where the husband gets home from work with a bouquet of flowers for his wife because all his stocks are up


My concern is that the steam may have run out of developed markets quite a while ago - the level of QE we've needed to inflate asset prices is unprecedented

So I'm looking to Asia and Emerging Markets ... A tracker may perform reasonably well for you, but there is the potential to do much better while these regions are opening up (as many US investors did in the early-mid 20th century)