Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

The deficit can sustainably grow at the same rate as GDP as ultimately that output will support future interest payments on that debt.

As Scottish GDP is about £170,000,000,000 and growth in real GDP is about 2%, Scotland can sustain a deficit of something like £3,500,000,000 per year.

Of course as the SNP wants to build a Sovereign Wealth Fund, the deficit would have to be eliminated entirely and a surplus introduced instead. To have a SWF growing at the rate of £1 a year would require cuts in Government spending of £15,000,000,000 for the year of the last GERS. The next one is looking like the deficit is going to be significantly worse due to the continuing lows in the oil price.

Given the way that the deficit is falling across the UK but rising as measured in Scotland it is possible that Scotland's deficit will equal the UK's by the time of the next election!

None of that is likely to change significantly while Scotland remains within the UK. And to perfectly honest, logically while the state of the Scottish economy is the only thing now keeping Scotland in the union. There will never really be any incentive in helping fix it. Not from any UK Govt who wish Scotland to remain in the UK anyway.

I think we can safely put a SWF on the back burner given oil prices at the moment. So I wouldn't waste any more of your time listing it as something that would eat into a brand new iScotland budget for a while.

But there are a lot of question marks to be answered over the next 3 months still aren't there before both Scotland AND the UK know where we all stand politically.

Tim MontgomerieVerified account@montie

Telegraph's #Brexit poll: Remain on 47%, Leave on 48% but Leave ahead by 52% to 44%, adjusted for likelihood to vote http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12193963/EU-referendum-Exclusive-Telegraph-poll-says-Leave-campaign-most-likely-to-win-in-June.html …

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

None of that is likely to change significantly while Scotland remains within the UK. And to perfectly honest, logically while the state of the Scottish economy is the only thing now keeping Scotland in the union. There will never really be any incentive in helping fix it. Not from any UK Govt who wish Scotland to remain in the UK anyway.

I think we can safely put a SWF on the back burner given oil prices at the moment. So I wouldn't waste any more of your time listing it as something that would eat into a brand new iScotland budget for a while.

TBH, reducing a deficit by £12 billion or £15 billion for Scotland is basically the same thing anyway so it makes no difference.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

But there are a lot of question marks to be answered over the next 3 months still aren't there before both Scotland AND the UK know where we all stand politically.

Ah yes, the secret referendum. You Gov had 40-37 from its last poll in favour of remain (5th March).

Interesting that polls put the Tories in with a shout of being the second party in Scotland:

https://twitter.com/Election_UK/status/708664937124601856

SNP: 69 (-)
CON: 25 (+10)
LAB: 20 (-17)
GRN: 9 (+7)
LD: 5 (-)

elantan

Yeah that one interests me as well Gen, I did wonder if it's the recognition by the yoons that labour are useless and won't get anywhere so they are turning towards Tory

wotsthat

The narrative has now developed....

If anyone in Scotland had realised an EU referendum was on the cards they'd have voted to leave the UK. And, if the SNP had all the levers the SNP could implement their secret master plan which would see the deficit cleared in short order.

It's funny how when otherwise perfectly intelligent people put the independence goggles on they can't smell BS anymore.

Generali

elantan wrote: »

Yeah that one interests me as well Gen, I did wonder if it's the recognition by the yoons that labour are useless and won't get anywhere so they are turning towards Tory

My suspicion is that Labour have treated so much of Scotland as their personal fief for so long that Scots have simply gotten fed up with them.

elantan

Generali wrote: »

My suspicion is that Labour have treated so much of Scotland as their personal fief for so long that Scots have simply gotten fed up with them.

Yes i think that is also a contributing factor .. and whilst i think the SNP have a bit of a while to go ... they need to ensure they don't do the same thing

Ruth also plays down her negative side to good effect

Generali

elantan wrote: »

Yes i think that is also a contributing factor .. and whilst i think the SNP have a bit of a while to go ... they need to ensure they don't do the same thing

Ruth also plays down her negative side to good effect

At some point the SNP will become unpopular, it's a necessary part of being in office. Either you become slovenly and take the electorate for granted like Labour appears to have done in Scotland or you end up having made so many decisions each of which upset a chunk of the electorate that they kick you out like Thatcher/Major.

It'll be interesting to see where they defect. I wonder exactly how toxic Labour is in Scotland? Very I suspect.

As for the Tories, the Poll Tax fiasco was now 25 years ago and that is a very long time. The very youngest people to have paid it are now 43.

elantan

I remember paying it ... I remember them Coming to my door to do a poinding ....

I remember during I dy ref talking to people about Thatcher and how Cameron was worse and people scoffing saying... nah we won't get a Tory government it will be labour and then dismiss what I had to say ... Oh how I laughed on May 5th at the irony

Generali

elantan wrote: »

I remember paying it ... I remember them Coming to my door to do a poinding ....

I remember during I dy ref talking to people about Thatcher and how Cameron was worse and people scoffing saying... nah we won't get a Tory government it will be labour and then dismiss what I had to say ... Oh how I laughed on May 5th at the irony

Plenty don't.

I imagine that many people vowed never to vote Labour after being ruined by the forced conversion of war debt in the 1940s or the privatisations done opportunistically on the cheap. Or would vote Tory for giving the colonies away. None of those things are part of the political memory now, not really.

CLAPTON

elantan wrote: »

I remember paying it ... I remember them Coming to my door to do a poinding ....

I remember during I dy ref talking to people about Thatcher and how Cameron was worse and people scoffing saying... nah we won't get a Tory government it will be labour and then dismiss what I had to say ... Oh how I laughed on May 5th at the irony

of course everyone in the UK paid pole tax
only the scots still have that chip on their shoulder : comes with living in intellectual isolation in scotland, I guess