Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

CLAPTON

It would seem to me that the SNP will do very well and may well squeeze some more unfair and inequitable advantage from the post May situation

However it is less clear whether Labour, depending upon the SNP to hold power, may be holding a poisoned chalice for their future.
Having lost the Scottish voters they can ill afford to lose English ones by appearing to appease the SNP.

elantan

As ive said several times, it's all exciting just now

MumOf2

elantan wrote: »

As ive said several times, it's all exciting just now

Just proves that one person's excitement is another's nightmare.

elantan

MumOf2 wrote: »

Just proves that one person's excitement is another's nightmare.

This is very true ... The UK needs change though

Generali

elantan wrote: »

This is very true ... The UK needs change though

Nothing a little less Socialism couldn't fix.

elantan

In your opinion

Generali

elantan wrote: »

In your opinion

Plenty of empirical evidence to back it up.

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

Nothing a little less Socialism couldn't fix.

Hamish illustrated very well why we need a period of moderate political control, coupled with financial stability. We have at least another term of grinding austerity to endure.

I've not seen any workable alternatives to fiscal tightening put forward by the SNP. They just want to drive the best deal for one specific region, at the risk of undermining other parts of the UK.

All the recent discussion Shakey puts forward is essentially politicking. When all is said and done, the politicians will have to step aside and allow people and business to secure our future.

We need an era of smaller state / less grandstanding from the politicians.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

They will if they get the votes predicted. Whether they get the votes or not is another question entirely.

The problem when a party has a big change in support as the SNP seems to is that it throws out the methodology of the polling companies. I would estimate that the SNP could quite easily get 10 percentage points more or fewer votes than predicted just because of the way that the polling companies try to control the sample to reduce sampling error.

The polling companies try to make sure that they have a representative sample of voters by asking people how they voted at the last election and then lining up the poll so they get the same proportion of people that voted for each party at the last election in their sample. The problem the pollsters face is that people are very bad at remembering who they voted for (seriously!) and are hugely likely to be swayed by their current voting intention. That could mean that SNP voters are being hugely under- or over-represented in the polling sample. Or that the sample is really good.

A lot of polling companies now use 2011 Holyrood weighting for Scotland, as using the GE of 2010 has proved notoriously bad. However, it does have to be said that ALL the polls have been consistent since October in trends. This isn't just a rogue poll or two showing a Yes vote ahead. It's been months now.

As people have said before, there's only one poll that matters in the end. However what is clear is that Labour have to start doing a lot better in England if they are going to have a hope of forming a coalition with the SNP. If we take it as read that the SNP would prop up a Labour Government in one way or another, if the SNP takes a seat off Labour then they're not adding to the sum of seats required to form a Government, they're just shuffling them around.

If Labour can't get their act together in England and the SNP won't work with the Tories, there'll be no SNP in the next UK Government. That's just maths.

And if the other two don't get anywhere near a majority ? For example..

Tory 285 seats + others still short of 326 ( or 323 )

If the SNP hadn't happened.. Labour 285 seats + 41 seats in Scotland. = 326 Labour Maj.

With the SNP rise in support Labour 285 seats + 41 SNP seats = 326 Labour/SNP .. ( Plaid, Greens and possibly Lib Dems also in play. Plaid and Greens are already on board with the SNP ).

It's the Tories that need to do much better. And they may still do. I reckon a lot of UKIP voters will come 'home' on the day.

Don't forget that while a majority is handy, it isn't a pre-requisite for forming a Government. To keep a Government going all you need to be able to do is maintain supply, pass a budget and avoid a no confidence defeat. It may be that enough Tories would support a Labour minority Government or Labour a Tory minority Government to make a minority Government a possibility for a while, say a year or even just a few months. If there's a minority Government in place it would be pretty simple for the 2 major parties (UK-wide not Scotland only, Scotland clearly has a third main party) to engineer an Election-triggering vote in the HoC.

The UK was Governed by a National Government from 1931 - 1945 perfectly well.

Labour pretty much ruled any govt of national unity out at their one day Scottish conference 2 days ago. But Caroline Flint, Margaret Curran refused to rule out one with the SNP yesterday on various politics shows. As did Jim Murphy at the Scottish Labour conference.

So I wouldn't be getting your hopes up too much for that one. Milliband and various MP's not ruling it out is why all the newspapers have gone a bit barmy the last few days.

Anything's possible though.

Shakethedisease

wotsthat wrote: »

Why not?

I can't see why either Labour or the Tories would form a coalition with a minor party if the price is 5 years of the Union being chipped away and a focus on Scotland beyond their representation in parliament.

In the example above we'd have a Tory PM and an agreement with Labour. You underestimate the ability of politicians to do the 'right thing' when required.

Ruled out as 'ludicrous' 2 days ago by Labour. Sorry.