Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I think that might be more down to the fact that a lot of people had trust in Labour at the time. And thought Labour would be in power. That's all changed now. No trust. No Labour in power.

Not according to the YouGov research. 10% of Yes voters did so to get rid of the Tories.

As for the SNP voting against the Scotland Bill, well that was always going to happen.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I thought you'd say that. But it wasn't really what most people thought they meant by 'better off'.

Eh?

It was communicated very clearly.

We'd be massively worse off under Indy than as part of the Union.

And now the Scotland Bill seems to be hovering on the brink making them worse off anyway within the UK. Worse off out of the union, worse off in. Fabulous.

So if the £9bn annual Westminster subsidy to Scotland falls by a few hundred million, thanks to SNP ineptitude in asking for more control over Scottish finances, we'd be a teeny tiny little bit worse off.

If we left the Union and lost the entire £9bn annual subsidy we'd be a giant whopping huge amount worse off.

Of course we could have not started interfering in the funding and finances and just left Barnett the way it was....

But that wasn't good enough for you lot, so now we'll be a little worse off, but nowhere near as worse off as we'd be with Indy.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I thought you'd say that. But it wasn't really what most people thought they meant by 'better off'. And now the Scotland Bill seems to be hovering on the brink making them worse off anyway within the UK. Worse off out of the union, worse off in. Fabulous.

Did you catch this on tv this morning ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35454450

Lets hope those face to face polls are more accurate than the online one's eh. Worrying. :eek:

January 31, 2016. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN0V90UQ

LOL, of course you don't post the other poll that is out this weekend:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9615

Finally Ipsos MORI also released EU referendum figures (part of the monthly Political Monitor survey I wrote about earlier in the week). Their latest figures are REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 38%, DK 12%.

As with the polls for the Scottish referendum, polling for a one-off vote is an inexact science as there is no data to show who is likely to come out and who isn't. Key to the failings of polling for the 2015 General Election was predicting which of the voters spoken to would actually vote.

With the Scottish referendum, if No had failed to get the vote out in substantial numbers Yes would have won it. The fact was that both sides were effective at getting supporters to vote.

It happened that polling for the referendum was pretty accurate. I would argue that was mostly down to luck.

skintmacflint

Shakethedisease wrote: »

. What do you feel the Scottish Conservative approach should be re prescription charges, council taxes and tuition fees ? And where do you feel Scottish Labour are going wrong ? Also, do you think there's a chance of the Tories coming in second ?

After all, you're not voting SNP. So it would be good to hear from someone else's perspective why they are voting for other parties. ( And I do mean that genuinely ). Hear about something else rather than the SNP for a change.

Can't see a situation where Conservatives will become the 2nd party yet in Scotland. However RD is fielding several new young candidates this time. Looks like they could gain a couple of seats, if polling is correct.

Been wondering what voter percentage turnout will be this year?

You've mentioned most Ruth Davidson has previously floated a graduation fee instead of universal free uni tuition, re instating prescription fees, and council tax increases, lower tax rate if affordable. She has also spoken out against the Named guardian scheme , is pro Union, in favour of more local government decision and control of funding. She seems genuine enough and willing to stand by her principles, even when it goes against central conservative policy. That will do for me just now.

I do think it's time we re-evaluated the cost of all the universal 'extras ' Scotland enjoys. Our additional Barnett , per capita income is supposed to offset the cost of providing vital services for a smaller population across a large geographical spread. To improve and modernise infrastructure in order to make Scotland more attractive to business with increased employment opportunities. Instead it's been diverted , as a short term vote sweetener. Seems a real wasted opportunity to me.

I'm not against the principle of universal benefits or services. Or in favour of every service/ benefit being means tested. It can cause resentment and social divides, and result in poverty traps. But few countries if any, including Scotland can afford them.

Labour can only start afresh. With the imminent removal of the next layer of several MSPS. Once the deadwood is gone, and with some new energetic hopeful fresh faces, willing to get out the office and into their constituencies , I hope they manage to rebuild their party support.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

Not according to the YouGov research. 10% of Yes voters did so to get rid of the Tories.

As for the SNP voting against the Scotland Bill, well that was always going to happen.

I think the Treasury might be blinking first.

Treasury to revise devolution fiscal framework offer

The UK Treasury is to make a revised offer to the Scottish government in an effort to secure a deal over new tax powers for Holyrood.
Talks have stalled over the fiscal framework which would govern the level of spending available to Holyrood.
The offer is expected to emerge at the latest round of negotiations in London.

Brian Taylor, the BBC Scottish political editor thinks some sort of deal will go ahead.

More talking to come, beyond today, I suspect. But, despite those exit strategies, despite the tough negotiations, I still expect a deal to emerge.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35458650

And the graph on trust was conducted over many years, also when Labour when in power in Holyrood. Scots simply trust Holyrood rather than Westminster more to do things better in their interests. They also tend to trust the fact and figures from there rather than Westminster. Now that ( unionist ) Labour is no longer dominant, and a pro-indy party is, this is now translating into more pro indy support. And even less trust in Westminster.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

LOL, of course you don't post the other poll that is out this weekend:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9615

I did, kind of.

Lets hope those face to face polls are more accurate than the online one's eh. Worrying.

As you know there's big gap between online and face to face/phone pollsters. The online one's put leave ahead or things neck and neck currently. The more traditional methods, have Remain in the lead by a good margin.

As with the polls for the Scottish referendum, polling for a one-off vote is an inexact science as there is no data to show who is likely to come out and who isn't. Key to the failings of polling for the 2015 General Election was predicting which of the voters spoken to would actually vote.

With the Scottish referendum, if No had failed to get the vote out in substantial numbers Yes would have won it. The fact was that both sides were effective at getting supporters to vote.

It happened that polling for the referendum was pretty accurate. I would argue that was mostly down to luck.

There was only one poll ever put Yes ahead for the entire 3 years. The fact that some pollsters have Leave in such a strong position, before even a date has been announced, or any official campaigning period has started. Must indeed be worrying for Cameron and any other pro-Eu campaigners.

That's what I meant by worrying. I'm not particularly keen on the thought of a Scottish referendum coming off the back of a Brexit one. But it is a possibility.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

That's what I meant by worrying. I'm not particularly keen on the thought of a Scottish referendum coming off the back of a Brexit one. But it is a possibility.

the SNP will call for a new referendum when they are confident they will win.
The excuse (like BREXIT) will be completely irrelevant : the ONLY criteria will be the (near) certainty of winning.

Shakethedisease

skintmacflint wrote: »

Can't see a situation where Conservatives will become the 2nd party yet in Scotland. However RD is fielding several new young candidates this time. Looks like they could gain a couple of seats, if polling is correct.

Been wondering what voter percentage turnout will be this year?

You've mentioned most Ruth Davidson has previously floated a graduation fee instead of universal free uni tuition, re instating prescription fees, and council tax increases, lower tax rate if affordable. She has also spoken out against the Named guardian scheme , is pro Union, in favour of more local government decision and control of funding. She seems genuine enough and willing to stand by her principles, even when it goes against central conservative policy. That will do for me just now.

Do you think that the Scottish Conservative party would do better as a stand alone party, splitting from the larger Uk party ( the sort of thing some in Labour are suggesting for Scottish Labour ) ?

I do think it's time we re-evaluated the cost of all the universal 'extras ' Scotland enjoys. Our additional Barnett , per capita income is supposed to offset the cost of providing vital services for a smaller population across a large geographical spread. To improve and modernise infrastructure in order to make Scotland more attractive to business with increased employment opportunities. Instead it's been diverted , as a short term vote sweetener. Seems a real wasted opportunity to me.

I'm not against the principle of universal benefits or services. Or in favour of every service/ benefit being means tested. It can cause resentment and social divides, and result in poverty traps. But few countries if any, including Scotland can afford them.

Most countries in Europe have free or nominal fee education. And I can see the logic behind the prescription fees. Council tax I think will be re-evaluated soon. The Conservatives didn't seem very keen on reform last year though. Perhaps there was an election in the offing.

THE Scottish Tories have snubbed a cross-party commission to find a fairer alternative to the council tax, the Sunday Herald can reveal. Nicola Sturgeon announced the commission in November, as part of her first programme for government as Scotland's new First Minister. Mirroring the recent Smith Commission on more devolution, it is meant to include nominees put forward by all the Holyrood parties.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13201721.Tories_boycott_cross_party_Scottish_effort_to_replace_Council_Tax/

Labour can only start afresh. With the imminent removal of the next layer of several MSPS. Once the deadwood is gone, and with some new energetic hopeful fresh faces, willing to get out the office and into their constituencies , I hope they manage to rebuild their party support.

They need to start defining themselves again. At the moment no one knows what they stand for and the difference at Uk/Scottish and Left/Right are confusing for everyone. I don't think they will be able to move on until both are resolved.

Turnout will probably be lower that the referendum (84.59% ), and the General Election (71.1%), but a bit higher than in 2011 (50.7% ). There are still a lot of people strongly politically engaged after the referendum. As such, I expect SNP voters will be the most motivated looking for a second overall majority.

Shakethedisease

CLAPTON wrote: »

the SNP will call for a new referendum when they are confident they will win.
The excuse (like BREXIT) will be completely irrelevant : the ONLY criteria will be the (near) certainty of winning.

Well, quite.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Well, quite.

some-one has to keep it simple, brief and honest