Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

Mistermeaner

dktreesea wrote: »

if the fracking projects actually start to produce gas, which will likely pollute underground water wherever it is carried out

Why will that be likely?

Also can you explain to me how putting bleach and sh it etc in huge quantities daily into water does not pollute my drinking water. I've never understood that.

Thrugelmir

Generali wrote: »

Getting rid of Reading?

You would have to dam the Thames higher up. Around Goring \ Streatley to be effective.

Generali

Thrugelmir wrote: »

You would have to dam the Thames higher up. Around Goring \ Streatley to be effective.

By Any. Means. Necessary.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

Maybe you're right about economics trailing behind politics in a new Scottish referendum but the SNP did their best to put economics centre stage last time (and then made an utter hash of it by flip flopping on the currency).

The massive win in Holyrood 2011 was unexpected. Labour were far and away leading the polls just 8 weeks before the vote. Still, kudos for getting so far. It's only taken 5 years to get to the point where half the country want to leave.

Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes: 49.2% No: 50.8% (Survation, 8 -12 January 2016

And there's no signs of going backwards as yet. Within that poll also, it seems that there are a great many No voters which would now vote yes. But very few the other way round. Women are also for the first time more pro indy than men. And Glasgow is upwards of 60%.

Tables here :- http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Final-Scomnibus-I-Tables-DR-1c0d2h9-51.pdf

Be clear, a new referendum means asking the Scots to vote for decades of impoverishment to get rid of the English unless oil returns to and remains at all time highs. At least you now accept that there simply isn't an economic argument to be made in favour of independence STD. I wonder how well the message is going to go down on the doorsteps as you tell the eager voters that you'll be closing the local school and hospital because you won't be able to afford them but at least you're free.

It's a terrible price to rid yourself of the English.

Also be clear. That any future referendum won't be framed round oil prices. Imo. It's likely to be framed in a much more simple and straightforward matter... in other words something along the lines of ....look folks, we know the economy is a bit crap, and it's crap when the Tories are running things, and independence might make things crap for a while too... but at the end of the day.... "Who would you rather trust running the Scottish economy ? A Scottish Govt, or a Tory one ? Holyrood or Westminster ? ".

That sort of narrative is simple to understand, and appeals to even wavery No voters ( who aren't keen on the Conservatives either ). Expect every single welfare sanction, bedroom tax injustice, renewable subsidy cancelled, derogatory posters of SNP MP's, EVEL voting in HOC, Trident renewal, and every single bad quote any Conservative MP has ever made about 'scrounging jocks' or 'subsidy junkies' etc etc etc to be pointed out and magnified greatly. Because even Scottish Labour won't argue with ANY of those.

From a starting point of 50/50 or thereabouts next time. It won't be the minutiae and endless bogged down over complicated, intricate, and sometimes baffling to the ordinary voter economic arguments about currency and oil next. It will simply come down to who Scots trust to run the economy long term. Which after all, is the point really.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Nothings permanent though. The SNP aren't a new party. Founded 1934. So easily could skip back into oblivion if they fail to deliver.

Scottish GDP figures this week didn't look good.

Labour dominated in Scotland for 40 or 50 years. Even when the rest of the UK were happy voting for Thatcher. I'd hold off popping the champagne corks for now.

Nor did the news of Council tax rises.

Keep up. That is a Conservative led council that's proposing those. To much laughter as the election leaflets plop through doorways with Ruth Davidson promising no tax rises. Unfortunate timing. But little to do with the SNP.

Many challenges ahead that cannot be laid at the door of Westminster!

And many that can ! Cuts coming from Westminster, mean cuts in Scotland. Swinney might be good, but he's not mastered the miracle of the five loaves and two fishes yet. And what's more, no one seriously expects him to. ( well apart from Scottish Labour but they're clutching at straws at the moment ).

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Cuts coming from Westminster, mean cuts in Scotland.

Nope.

Scottish Executive's budget has risen above inflation for 2015/16



Any cuts this year are entirely down to SNP mismanagement.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The massive win in Holyrood 2011 was unexpected. Labour were far and away leading the polls just 8 weeks before the vote. Still, kudos for getting so far. It's only taken 5 years to get to the point where half the country want to leave.

And there's no signs of going backwards as yet. Within that poll also, it seems that there are a great many No voters which would now vote yes. But very few the other way round. Women are also for the first time more pro indy than men. And Glasgow is upwards of 60%.

Tables here :- http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Final-Scomnibus-I-Tables-DR-1c0d2h9-51.pdf

Also be clear. That any future referendum won't be framed round oil prices. Imo. It's likely to be framed in a much more simple and straightforward matter... in other words something along the lines of ....look folks, we know the economy is a bit crap, and it's crap when the Tories are running things, and independence might make things crap for a while too... but at the end of the day.... "Who would you rather trust running the Scottish economy ? A Scottish Govt, or a Tory one ? Holyrood or Westminster ? ".

That sort of narrative is simple to understand, and appeals to even wavery No voters ( who aren't keen on the Conservatives either ). Expect every single welfare sanction, bedroom tax injustice, renewable subsidy cancelled, derogatory posters of SNP MP's, EVEL voting in HOC, Trident renewal, and every single bad quote any Conservative MP has ever made about 'scrounging jocks' or 'subsidy junkies' etc etc etc to be pointed out and magnified greatly. Because even Scottish Labour won't argue with ANY of those.

From a starting point of 50/50 or thereabouts next time. It won't be the minutiae and endless bogged down over complicated, intricate, and sometimes baffling to the ordinary voter economic arguments about currency and oil next. It will simply come down to who Scots trust to run the economy long term. Which after all, is the point really.

Don't let's pretend that independence means anything other than grinding poverty for decades for the average Scot. A 20% cut in budget for Scotland's Government overnight isn't going to mean a little tinkering around the edges.

If the SNP can sell a vision of a independent Scotland, gloriously free of English interference that would be somehow better than being in the UK then so be it. I don't see any proposal that would make Scotland enough of a better place to give up proper healthcare for or to end the welfare state for though.

This is the Government spending pie chart for Scotland:



You need to cut 20% out of it. Getting rid of all state spending would do it as would stopping spending on basically everything other than pensions, health, education and welfare. It's up to you really but that would be the reality of the choices faced by an independent Scotland. If Scotland could grow by an extra 0.5% a year over England (highly unlikely in the face of such austerity but still) it would take about 45 years to make back the gap between the countries.

If the Scots really want shot of the English that much then so be it but be under no illusions of the size of the task at hand.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Actually lets take a look at this more closely.

This pie chart includes UK government spending directly in Scotland, does not include defence, nor any of the other spending an Indy Scotland would have to do, such as run a duplicate version of embassies overseas, create new central government functions to duplicate UK ones, etc, etc.



And this chart shows clearly that government spending has risen in Scotland every year since 2005.



So what 'Tory cuts' is she talking about?

Mistermeaner

Yes but polls. Nearly as many people might vote for independence as voted in the first series of big brother.

Scottish people are engaged and informed. Just look on Twitter.

The time is right for independence as maybe around half of Scots might support it.

Money is just about numbers and as we all know numbers, especially ones about the economy don't really matter.

What does matter to the Scottish people is that they are ruled by someone who has a similar accent to them as they will understand Scottish issues far better.

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Actually lets take a look at this more closely.

This pie chart includes UK government spending directly in Scotland, does not include defence, nor any of the other spending an Indy Scotland would have to do, such as run a duplicate version of embassies overseas, create new central government functions to duplicate UK ones, etc, etc.



And this chart shows clearly that government spending has risen in Scotland every year since 2005.



So what 'Tory cuts' is she talking about?

Been through this before. I guess as an economist you have no idea what 'austerity' means. Weird. Scottish budget has been cut. Unless you're trying to say Scotland is unique. Andrew Neil got a bit of a red face for saying the Scottish budget hadn't been cut not long ago... and incidentally, he was quoting Kevin Hague.