Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Anyway... Back to oil revenues.

As has been discussed on here many times, there are two components to oil revenues, the price of oil and the volume of production.

We've all seen the oil price graphs, but here's one for production, which might as well be titled "Why Indy Is Doomed"...



Even with record oil prices, we just can't pump enough of the stuff out of the dwindling oil fields to be financially independent with anything like current spending levels.

There is currently much excitement in Natland about a minor 7% uptick in the 2015 production volume figures following years of expensive drilling through the price boom.

But that's wholly inconsequential compared to the estimated 140 wells that are due to come offline in the next decade having reached the end of their productive lives.

And those expensive drilling rigs that were going 24/7 for the last few years trying to squeeze the last drops out of the North Sea, are now mothballed, with a dozen cold stacked in the Cromarty Firth alone...

Savage Cuts and Austerity Max beyond anything the Tories could dream of are the only options for FFA or Indy.

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Anyway... Back to oil revenues.

As has been discussed on here many times, there are two components to oil revenues, the price of oil and the volume of production.

We've all seen the oil price graphs, but here's one for production, which might as well be titled "Why Indy Is Doomed"...



Even with record oil prices, we just can't pump enough of the stuff out of the dwindling oil fields to be financially independent with anything like current spending levels.

Savage Cuts and Austerity Max beyond anything the Tories could dream of are the only options for FFA or Indy.

Offshore takes time to ramp up and down. I would expect another pretty big step down from a couple of years' time when lower cost developments displace investment in North Sea oil (I expect the Norwegians' economic model to go the way of the Crescent of Prosperity as an inspiration to SNP politicians and supporters).

Then there is the news that the US is allowing oil exports to recommence after many years.

The SNP had their chance. If the SNP can't get independence with oil prices at $100 then they never will. The only hope left for them is to screw as much subsidy out of Londoners as possible and hope that southerners don't realise that the reason that SE London is such a mess is because the Scottish middle class get free uni places for their kids.

Fingers crossed fellas....

princeofpounds

Savage Cuts and Austerity Max beyond anything the Tories could dream of are the only options for FFA or Indy.

Or the other way of squaring the circle would be capital controls, forced conversion into a Scottish pound, which is then promptly massively devalued. Likely accompanied by national bankruptcy and default.


To be honest, given the current fiscal state of Scotland, austerity wouldn't work; they have gone too far to be able to grow and pay their way out of their debt. It might have been possible at previous oil prices - if they had the right government (and they don't).


Scotland might end up a competitive and dynamic economy after all that. Only with all imported goods costing ~50% more, pre-independence savings crushed, and 4-7 years of inevitable declining living standards and political turmoil.


Funnily enough, it would probably beat the socialism out of the country finally. Being forced to pay our own bills tends to do that.

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

While the rest of us just watch with incredulity as you metaphorically gorge yourself on the Westminster subsidy and also continuously try to bite that hand that feeds you.

Give it a rest for heavens sake.

Every person in Scotland is subsidised by the English to the tune of £1700 a year. I don't much care if you like that fact, or whether or not it hurts your pride, but it's reality.

And that's on top of the amount we'd have to borrow as a nation to keep our deficit to the same level as rUK.

If you want to get your chequebook out and cough up £1700 for each member of your household, so £6800 for a family of four, every year from now on then feel free.

But as at least half the country don't want to pay that price for independence then I suggest you figure out how to pay their extra costs as well...

You say you're angry, well guess what, so am I.

Your lot seem determined to cost us all an absolute fortune, and it appears most of you are completely ignorant of the consequences, being so wrapped up in senseless Nationalist pride and vanity you have no idea what a disaster it would be.

When I see you write a cheque to Westminster returning that subsidy each and every year then I'll let you moan about it in this thread without comment.

Until then, show a bit of humility, even if the gratitude you should be feeling is beyond your comprehension.

I think you know what's on the cards Hamish. That's why you're angry. The political union is just about over bar the shouting. Labour imploding north and south of the border will make sure of that.

For someone who supports the party of aspiration and standing on one's own two feet.. you seem remarkably reluctant to accept that for Scotland, aspiration and standing on one's own two feet have been dominating politics for the last few years.

You'd rather stay dependent and grateful for 'handouts' ? A bit sad really, but there you go. But it's only one side of the coin isn't it.

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Anyway... Back to oil revenues.

As has been discussed on here many times, there are two components to oil revenues, the price of oil and the volume of production.

We've all seen the oil price graphs, but here's one for production, which might as well be titled "Why Indy Is Doomed"...



Even with record oil prices, we just can't pump enough of the stuff out of the dwindling oil fields to be financially independent with anything like current spending levels.

There is currently much excitement in Natland about a minor 7% uptick in the 2015 production volume figures following years of expensive drilling through the price boom.

But that's wholly inconsequential compared to the estimated 140 wells that are due to come offline in the next decade having reached the end of their productive lives.

And those expensive drilling rigs that were going 24/7 for the last few years trying to squeeze the last drops out of the North Sea, are now mothballed, with a dozen cold stacked in the Cromarty Firth alone...

Savage Cuts and Austerity Max beyond anything the Tories could dream of are the only options for FFA or Indy.

In other words... OMG production has gone back up. Saudi and Iran and making things look 'volatile' prices up and down over the last few days. So better start shoehorning in 'dwindling supplies' and 'last few drops' back into the narrative...just in case.

I don’t buy that. Just as fast as crudes prices have fallen over the past year or so, they could easily spring back again. One reason is that these recent drops reflect supply patterns that are driven almost entirely by geo-politics – and geo-politics can quickly shift. It’s also axiomatically true that a collapse of the crude price, from an average of $94 a barrel in 2014 to $49 so far this year, entirely contradicts the long-term fundamentals of ever-rising global oil demand and the geological and logistic constraints on future increases in supply.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/12047399/Why-it-wont-be-long-before-oil-prices-rise-again.html

Ms Michie said: "Government data for the first ten months of 2015 shows that the total volume of oil and gas produced on the UK continental shelf (UKCS) was up 8.6% compared with 2014, with the production of liquids up 10.6% and gas up 6.1%."Output in November and December tends historically to be more stable, but even so, Oil & Gas UK now expects year end production for the full year of 2015 to be seven to eight per cent higher than last year....
...."For example, only last week, oil company Taqa announced first production from the Cladhan field north-east of Shetland, estimated to produce 10,000 barrels of oil a day from the UK's waters."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-35222629

Is always risky to base Scottish independence debate soley on just oil prices isn't it. If they start looking good again, over the next few years.. that's the last bastion of BetterTogether/Generali/Hamish speak totally snookered.

Ps I've been on Twitter/Facebook a few times during today. I haven't seen much 'excitement'. And I've probably got far more 'nat' friends than you there.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I think you know what's on the cards Hamish. That's why you're angry. The political union is just about over bar the shouting. Labour imploding north and south of the border will make sure of that.

For someone who supports the party of aspiration and standing on one's own two feet.. you seem remarkably reluctant to accept that for Scotland, aspiration and standing on one's own two feet have been dominating politics for the last few years.

You'd rather stay dependent and grateful for 'handouts' ? A bit sad really, but there you go. But it's only one side of the coin isn't it.

wow

that's impressive
an independent scotland could have had everyone on benefits

but not long now: always assuming that the other 55% want to stand on their own feet.

controversy

The answer to the problem is proportional representation and a end to the 2 party system. Its about time our country reflected the peoples will and not ills of tactical voting.

CLAPTON

controversy wrote: »

The answer to the problem is proportional representation and a end to the 2 party system. Its about time our country reflected the peoples will and not ills of tactical voting.

you think the advantages outweigh the disadvantages?

how would it make any difference in the Iscotland vote?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

But it's only one side of the coin isn't it.

Nope.

Not unless you have a time machine to go back to the 80's.....


Fire Up The Quattro - Shakey's going back to the 80's


Back in the current timeline however, Scotland's economic reality without UK subsidy is grimmer than a mixtape of Depeche Mode's most miserable hits...





Pooling and Sharing Shakey..... Pooling and Sharing.

Scotland was subsidised for centuries, had a wee blip for a few decades, and is now being subsidised again.

We've only paid our way, ie, kept our deficit to the same or smaller than the UK's, for 3 years of the last 15 years.

I'd bet we won't see another year for many decades to come.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

For example, only last week, oil company Taqa announced first production from the Cladhan field north-east of Shetland, estimated to produce 10,000 barrels of oil a day from the UK's waters.".

Holy Cow!

A new field producing 10,000 barrels a day.

Crikey.

Well that changes everything....

We "only" need to find another 2000 oil fields like that to replace the 2 million barrels a day of production lost since 2005 alone.:rotfl: