Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

Shakethedisease

I forgot this.. re 60% opinion polls and independence. Most thought Labour were in with a good shout in May 15. If it looks like they aren't in 2020.... Wonder where the below 7% will go next time if it looks like a Tory win ? Definite scope there for few points added to get to that 60%. Though I suspect if they pull the trigger it will be at nearer 55%.

Opinion polls also asked for attitudes in various hypothetical situations, such as if how would voters would view the referendum if they believed that the Conservatives or Labour were likely to win the 2015 UK general election.[30][31]

An ICM poll in April 2014 found that the no lead would be 8 points (44–36) if voters thought Labour would win, while the no lead would be 1 point (42–41) if they thought the Conservatives would win.[31]

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

That's the truth I and about 1.6 million others, faced up to long, long time ago independence wise. Is it a deal breaker ? No...And that's the truth I'm afraid you yourself are going to have to face up to at some point.

Again you conflate a risk free vote for the SNP in an election or a willingness to tell a pollster that they'll vote yes in an indyref with the all together different scenario of actually voting yes in a real referendum, where if yes wins the result is irreversible.
It's the unquestioning SNP acolytes like you that needs to face up to the fact that unless the economic case for a independent Scotland is made in a honest and 'warts an all' fashion then independence is but a pipe dream for you.

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

Again you conflate a risk free vote for the SNP in an election or a willingness to tell a pollster that they'll vote yes in an indyref with the all together different scenario of actually voting yes in a real referendum, where if yes wins the result is irreversible.
It's the unquestioning SNP acolytes like you that needs to face up to the fact that unless the economic case for a independent Scotland is made in a honest and 'warts an all' fashion then independence is but a pipe dream for you.

No. The political argument needs to be met too. Where we're already seeing the 'warts and all'. Imo it's far more likely that the political reality of a Conservative Govt in power for the next decade.. will override any economic questions that still linger, or where the oil prices are at.

You've framed almost the entire economic argument in terms of oil, increasingly, in terms of price ( when prices were high, it was all about that it wasn't going to last long )... Prices going back up, and I'm not saying they will.. but if they do is going to be a very, very bad thing for the Union. People have been sneering so long at 'hey how about that oil price SNP'... the reverse will happen when/if it starts rising. That Scotland voting for independence means being 'out of the EU'... is now a laughable argument, and in terms of currency. It's generally accepted that there will have to be a new one. Fringe meetings on currency at the SNP conference were by all accounts standing room only. They're working on that.

But the biggest danger by FAR. Is Scottish Labour stalwarts, and ex-Labour No voters. Many of whom thought Miliband would be in power by now, dishing out Gordon Brown's vague version of 'Home Rule'.. ( and certainly never in their wildest dreams imagining a Tory majority going by Sept 14 polls )... Simply giving up on UK Westminster politics altogether in the face of permanent, or so it seems, Conservative Governments. Deciding that just mabye, Holyrood might do things better. At least there, there's a very good chance of a Labour First Minister again.

Few years yet though. And Corbyn or whoever follows him, might still pull things back.

mystic_trev

At least the SNP can't blame Westminster for Craig Joubert.

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No. The political argument needs to be met too. Where we're already seeing the 'warts and all'. Imo it's far more likely that the political reality of a Conservative Govt in power for the next decade.. will override any economic questions that still linger, or where the oil prices are at.

I don't see it!
I know you're on the ground and I respect that, but the perpetual Tory government thing is overblown in my view, and could bite the SNP on the backside if (even in Scotland!) the Tories becomes the natural home for the Unionist. Politics in Scotlland will become a binary choice in the future, Nationalist or Unionist.
In my opinion the pooling of resources and the sharing of risk trumps any political or economic argument the SNP can make.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Few years yet though. And Corbyn or whoever follows him, might still pull things back.

David Milliband I suspect will garner a far broader appeal to those that happily sit in the middle ground.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No. The political argument needs to be met too. Where we're already seeing the 'warts and all'. Imo it's far more likely that the political reality of a Conservative Govt in power for the next decade.. will override any economic questions that still linger, or where the oil prices are at.

A significant % of Scots don't want a Tory govt because they believe in greater spending on welfare from the state.

Indy would lead to forced Austerity-Max that would make Tory cuts seem like a picnic.

Scotland has only run a lesser % of deficit than the UK in 3 years of the last 15.

And at current oil prices and spending levels it's catastrophically bad.

A bankrupt state within 3-4 years without UK subsidy.

The economics are everything for Indy.

You can try to dodge the bullet with meaningless talk of 'politics' til the cows come home, but it makes no difference.

Scotland without Uk subsidy now is like Greece. A failed State.

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

A significant % of Scots don't want a Tory govt because they believe in greater spending on welfare from the state.

Indy would lead to forced Austerity-Max that would make Tory cuts seem like a picnic.

Scotland has only run a lesser % of deficit than the UK in 3 years of the last 15.

And at current oil prices and spending levels it's catastrophically bad.

A bankrupt state within 3-4 years without UK subsidy.

The economics are everything for Indy.

You can try to dodge the bullet with meaningless talk of 'politics' til the cows come home, but it makes no difference.

Scotland without Uk subsidy now is like Greece. A failed State.

Ironic that 45% of Scots voted for independence, apparently at least in part on the assumption that it meant permanently higher Government spending despite the fact that it would mean a huge reduction in the quantum of Government spending if not the proportion of GDP spent.

No wonder the SNP have gone a little cool on another vote.

LABMAN

Is it true St. Nic. wants the rugby game replayed...another ref. of course?

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

I don't see it!
I know you're on the ground and I respect that, but the perpetual Tory government thing is overblown in my view, and could bite the SNP on the backside if (even in Scotland!) the Tories becomes the natural home for the Unionist. Politics in Scotlland will become a binary choice in the future, Nationalist or Unionist.
In my opinion the pooling of resources and the sharing of risk trumps any political or economic argument the SNP can make.

No it's not overblown. It's how it is. Just how long do think Scots voters, both SNP and Labour leaning, are going to go along with the fact that Conservative Governments are in power... it has to be said, and I am sorry.. because English votes keep putting them there ? There's no way mathematically around that. However, there is one politically/constitutionally.

You're also correct, that there are signs that staunchly unionist voters are starting to shift towards the Conservatives in Scotland. They're catching up with Labour. However, most of those who voted No last year thinking that Miliband/Labour would be in by now.. aren't staunchly unionist enough ever, ever to vote Tory. In general, these voters are at the older side of the age scale, and have voted Labour all their lives. Which is why they voted No like Labour advocated. <

---

These core Labour voters are more or less now all Labour have left in Scotland. Which is why, they now find themselves on par with core Tory voters in Scotland. Fighting for a poor second placing to the SNP.

If enough of those voters are hit with things like tax credit cuts, to themselves, or their children.. among other things. And there's no hope of a UK Labour government. Then they'll rethink their votes next time. And I seriously doubt it will be for another 5 or 10/15 years of Conservatives in power, with EVEL and constituency border changes making it all the more likely. And far less likely Labour will be in power UK wise for a long time.