Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

They're not through yet. And Harman is only temporarily in charge, back pedaling like mad over her pronouncements last week. And you forgot...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/18/the-snps-westminster-mps-canny-targeted-and-on-their-toes

The parliament is only 10 weeks old. I'd say the Tories are having a few problems already. More to come. Cameron and Fallon seem to be a in a bit of a fix already re Syria/bombing.. Not good.

So the SNP might be able to help Labour block one policy of the Tories' policies (the SNP can't block anything alone let us not forget).

The other three seem just to be shuffles of Parliamentary timetables.

That, of course, is the advantage of being in Government rather than sniping from the sidelines: you get to set and change the timetable.

Shakethedisease

skintmacflint wrote: »

From an SNP marketing spin perspective, yes I think it does matter. Which makes it unlikely they will ever be revealed. But reading several pro Yes social media pages during and immediately after the Referendum, there were loads of ex pats and people from Catalonia etc etc proudly announcing they'd just joined SNP.

25,000 to 115,000 members in a few short months wasn't it ?

On considering SNPs new tactics to get involved over the border, perhaps they should take a moment to remember Mdme Sturgeons SNP conference Friends, Delegates. Members lend SNP your vote speech. Where she announced a vote for SNP would lock the bad Tories out of power. With the more quietly announced exclusion of as long as there were more anti Tory MPs elected . Made it all sound so easy she did.

Which resulted in a Tory majority. That's twice in less than a year SNP have got 2 major outcomes wrong.

Everyone got the predictions wrong.

So this new strategy sounds like yet more SNP empty rhetoric, nothing more. Maybe they don't have enough to do to keep themselves busy.

Sounds a good strategy to me. Independence aside, there are many who will welcome MP's who sit in parliament listening to concerns and issues common throughout the UK.

Not sure some of these MPs constituents will be best pleased to see their MP allocating chunks of their working time on behalf of another constituency with it's own MP. PartIcularly in deprived areas . Keeping social media up to date issuing SNP central controlled rhetoric isn't going to cut in the longer term.

Its the summer recess. MP's are on 'holiday' and fee to do what they wish.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

And lest we forget, the SNP and Labour need pretty much everyone else to vote with them plus quite a few Tories to overturn anything.

The SNP's power, such as it is, is largely due to being able to piggy back onto Labour, a Unionist party which may have been trounced in Scotland but is still the second largest party a very long way ahead of the SNP.

The SNP can be an annoyance to the Government if they can keep Labour on side and persuade some Tories to abstain. If the Conservatives vote as a group then they can pass whatever laws they like within the confines of the constitution.

Problem being that thus far, acting as a group for the Tories, hasn't been much in evidence. Labour can't abstain forever either. Depends on their new leader I suppose, how they'll jump. So it's difficult to predict just how much trouble or not Labour is going to cause the Tories in 'passing what they like'. 12 of a majority isn't wonderful for them (as previous Tory leaders have found ) over the next five years, if it even remains at that.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Everyone got the predictions wrong.

I didn't. I said that Yes would lose, I said the SNP would easily carry Scotland and I said that the Tories would do far better than the polls predicted.

You didn't even believe the polls for Scotland but they were so consistent that it was obvious that the SNP was going to win pretty much every seat.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

So the SNP might be able to help Labour block one policy of the Tories' policies (the SNP can't block anything alone let us not forget).

The other three seem just to be shuffles of Parliamentary timetables.

That, of course, is the advantage of being in Government rather than sniping from the sidelines: you get to set and change the timetable.

No, they've been 'shuffled' and withdrawn because the Tories can't be sure they'll pass. Too many rebels in the ranks on stuff like EVEL. They don't want a defeat too early in the parliament. But that doesn't mean it won't be defeated anyway further down the line. Time and Labour will tell.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

I didn't. I said that Yes would lose, I said the SNP would easily carry Scotland and I said that the Tories would do far better than the polls predicted.

Fabulous. However, none of the official pollsters predicted a Tory majority. And mcskinflint was alluding to the fact only the SNP 'got things wrong' which is clearly nonsense.

You didn't even believe the polls for Scotland but they were so consistent that it was obvious that the SNP was going to win pretty much every seat.

That, was the opposite way round. The pollsters were correct in their Scottish polling. But it was hard for anyone up here to believe that those massive Labour majorities would be overturned in some areas. Least of all breaking the swingometers doing so. In 2010, not a single seat changed hands despite the SNP being in government in Scotland for the previous 3 years.

But am glad those predictions were right all the same.

kabayiri

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Problem being that thus far, acting as a group for the Tories, hasn't been much in evidence.
...

Err, i guess you were away when the budget happened then.

The Tories have been able to act so much as a group that they absolutely stuffed the budget full of content. There was much more than we were led to believe even at the GE. Clearly they have been very busy themselves.

The response from the opposition was frankly shambolic; full of the usual rhetoric on unfairness.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Problem being that thus far, acting as a group for the Tories, hasn't been much in evidence. Labour can't abstain forever either. Depends on their new leader I suppose, how they'll jump. So it's difficult to predict just how much trouble or not Labour is going to cause the Tories in 'passing what they like'. 12 of a majority isn't wonderful for them (as previous Tory leaders have found ) over the next five years, if it even remains at that.

The Tories have a majority of 12 so Labour need to carry the SNP and all the other parties plus a few Tories to overturn anything.

Fox hunting was a free vote so you can forget that. It wasn't Government business, it was given Government time.

Cameron has largely neutered the anti-EU mob by giving them what they want: a referendum. The B@st@rds have been thrown their bone and Cameron will have to deal with the consequences of the popular vote. It's hard to see where the Euro skeptics can go if the vote is against leaving. If the vote is to leave then the Government will have to deal with that, I suspect trying to get cross bench support for the next move.

It's hard to see what apart from Europe is going to split the Tory party enough that a small majority is a problem. Given the way Labour appear to be moving Tory policies are in the ascendance.

What other Tory policies are going to split the Tory party realistically?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

There was an interesting poll by Survation last week on Scots attitudes to tax and welfare that spells trouble ahead for the SNP socialist ideal....

- 31% of Scots want welfare payments kept the same across the UK

- 18% favour reducing welfare payments

- 33% want them increased

So only 1/3 of Scots want to see higher welfare payments while 2/3rds want them to stay the same as the Uk or reduce.

On tax, the picture is even bleaker for the SNP, as just 9% of Scots want income taxes to rise....

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

There was an interesting poll by Survation last week on Scots attitudes to tax and welfare that spells trouble ahead for the SNP socialist ideal....

- 31% of Scots want welfare payments kept the same across the UK

- 18% favour reducing welfare payments

- 33% want them increased

So only 1/3 of Scots want to see higher welfare payments while 2/3rds want them to stay the same as the Uk or reduce.

On tax, the picture is even bleaker for the SNP, as just 9% of Scots want income taxes to rise....

very interesting statistics but broadly what would be expected.

This is why the SNP will do very little in Scotland but concentrate on trying to create an illusion of activity at Westminster.
We can expect endless faux issues, claims of insults, unrealistic demands (designed to be rejected to faux outrage) etc.

Once they have a clean sweep of the holyrood elections they will demand a new referendum ; probably holding unofficial one when Cameron refuses a formal one.

If the Scots fall for the propaganda we could be separate within a couple of years.