Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

Shakethedisease

Seems there may have been a leak of the Ashcroft polling.. all unconfirmed, we'll have to wait till 11am tomorrow to see. But the leak is showing out of 15 seats polled.. the SNP are ahead in 14 of them.

1. Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 15 mins15 minutes ago
   According to the leaked polls, fifteen seats have been polled and fourteen have the SNP ahead.
2. Amongst the polled (leaked) constituencies big names look set to lose their seats: Douglas Alexander, Danny Alexander and Margaret Curran.

Leanne I forgot to offer some virtual popcorn to you too earlier. Apologies, I know you're just as much of a poll watcher as I am. If this leak is true, I think we might need a bigger box for tomorrow's headlines. :eek: Also explain's Gordon Brown's sudden reappearance too.. Still, will wait until tomorrow to see if this is confirmed.

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, the former Scottish Secretary Michael Moore, and current Shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran are expected to be among the high-profile politicians forecast to lose their Westminster seats by new polling data published today.

The highly-anticipated analysis of Scottish constituencies by Lord Ashcroft, the former Conservative deputy chairman, will back up recent polls which point to a major rewrite of Scotland’s political map. Labour’s 56 year dominance of general elections north of the border is forecast to end with a historic shift to the nationalists in May. The new poll predicts the demise of the frontline careers of many of Scotland’s current big-hitting pro-union politicians.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/new-polling-data-points-to-bloodletting-of-big-names-from-scottish-political-life-10021796.html

Leanne1812

Wow! Just wow!

I had a look on Twitter and it appears my MP is to be ousted too. The SNP candidate hasn't even been confirmed yet.

This is going to be a very tough pill for labour to swallow. I wonder what they'll offer next, another referendum if we vote for them!!

Still can't be complacent, there's work to be done. This is fantastic news though. Our tiny nation feels nothing like the minor entity it's painted to be

Shakethedisease

Confirmed I think. Ashcroft has just released his commentary a bit earlier than he'd have liked...:o

I found the SNP ahead in fifteen of these sixteen seats. In the Labour-held constituencies the overall swing to the SNP was 25.4%. This ranged from 21% in Airdrie & Shotts to 27% in Dundee West and Motherwell & Wishaw. Among these seats only Glasgow North East would stay in Labour hands if these results were to be repeated at the election, with the party’s majority in the constituency down from 54 points to just seven.
Douglas Alexander, Labour’s campaign manager and the Shadow Foreign Secretary, would lose his Paisley & Renfrewshire South seat with a swing to the SNP of 25%. Elsewhere, Salmond would be back in Westminster with a comfortable majority over the Lib Dems, and Chief Secretary Danny Alexander would lose by 29 points.
In the Labour-held seats, only 60% of those who voted Labour in 2010 said they would do so again this year; more than one third (35%) said they would support the SNP. While the Conservative vote (such as it was) has held up in these seats well, the Lib Dems have collapsed: only 12% of the party’s 2010 supporters said they would vote Lib Dem again; nearly half (47%) said they would switch to the SNP.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/scottish-battleground/#more-7456

Traditional Labour heartlands demolished, ( which he concentrated on ) rather than an out and out entire Scottish rout predicted.. But still... those were Labour 'weigh the ballots' rather than count areas for decades.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

It makes the chances of Labour winning the election look rather slimmer.

I think things look a lot like 1992 where people don't really want to admit that they want to vote Tory to the pollsters but doing so in the polling booth.

I suspect that the Tory offer of a referendum on Europe will be enough to persuade a lot of wavering right wing kippers to vote Tory. Vote UKIP, get Labour is a pretty easy sell to the electorate IMHO. The rise of the SNP in Scotland could quite easily result in the Tories forming a new Government which might, quite possibly, dissuade Scots from voting for the SNP in future.

I think Scottish Labour might want to come up with some actual policies first ? SNP = baaad isn't one of them.

Tories getting in again in Westminster is likely to strengthen SNP support in future, not weaken it. Again, UK Labour need to look much less like 'Tory-lite' in order to re-claim some ground. Voting through austerity measures, Trident renewal and fracking ( with some tweaks ) isn't going to do it. Yesterday's yougov poll asked voters who they think would be more likely to gain powers, or act in Scotland's best interests ? The SNP were ahead by a mile. Even with Scottish Tory voters.

There's a meme going round saying 'Scottish Labour abstaining for Scotland'.. and that's about the size of it at the moment. It's about all Scottish Labour MP's do these days.. too scared to vote against the party whip.. but too scared of their own constituents to vote FOR the motion proposed. Yet still take to twitter to proclaim they've did this or that.. completely disregarding the fact that anyone now can check within 30 secs how they voted.

Scotland may be lost. Especially if the Tories get in. An EU referendum and EVEL will just exacerbate matters further. Labour should be keeping everything crossed that English/Welsh voters are seeing them through different eyes and vote for them regardless as 'the best of a bad bunch'.

skintmacflint

elantan wrote: »

I think you will find that if the people of Scotland want to be independent and are denied another referendum then that would be to the detriment of the rest of the UK

Élan tan from some of your posts I'm beginning to think you're a wind up merchant having a bit of fun on this thread.

I live in Scotland and don't hear everyone talking politics when I'm out and about in the shops. And I've a few friends who are SNP, one of whom who is a local councillor. They are also experiencing some problems within SNP in managing things just now.

Certainly there are people who got caught up in the flag waving, bagpipes and the nationalistic dream, which was sold to them like a kipper, who like to relive the memory of fun crowded days out for the family in the sunshine with face painting and stalls.

But the country isn't full of them unless you live in one of a couple of minority areas. Even that fellow Lodi can't remember his name ( it's an age thing) who is an Indy rapper commented the grassroots campaign didn't achieve that much, had lots of problems and was paraded like a veil by the SNP. The party of the coat of many colours.

Try not to get so carried away with yourself in future., as you're giving your game away.

elantan

I have stated many times two things ...

I'm sitting watching it all whilst eating popcorn ... so yes i do not take it seriously at all, i did my serious campaigning up until 10pm Sep 18th ... after that i stopped, now i observe and share my observations

The SNP have a tricky time just now and need to be careful it isnt all going their way.

I personally live in a very very unionist part of Scotland... and even i hear it up my main street, its generally a recognised its inevitable but we dont know when it will happen type of conversation, i do hear talk about it at least 3-4 times per week, i also didnt say it was all people talked about ... sometimes we even talk about the weather .. we obviously live in a different place and thats ok but due to us living in a different place we have different experiences, i still walk into the supermarket and hear discussions for example, one day at work i was stunned at the conversation that took place, i was asked my opinion and stated i dont talk politics whilst in uniform ( as i dont believe i should) so it was assumed i voted no, this then lead to digging and questioning etc but i remained firm and didnt talk politics whilst in uniform, the conversation however did leave me speechless.

Loki whilst a great rapper and a no bad wee talker is also quite ...hmmm not sure how to say it without offending and i dont want to offend him as he is an ok guy, Loki allowed himself to be used in many ways ( so did a lot of us myself included)

The grass roots movement failed ... its job was to get independence ... it failed in its role, it did however set down the frame work for further work to better the future of Scotland, many grass roots people are now connected to many other groups, Wfi , Ric, Cw etc ...

One thing i noticed during the ref was that when i attended meetings generally i would see many of the same faces, i noticed this as it started swelling in numbers more and pointed it out to the group i was involved with, we all agreed this was concerning.

So yes i can agree with some of what you say, but not all ... hope that helps

ruggedtoast

elantan wrote: »

no they have time and time again stated they have accepted the result.... They have also stated that it will be up the the people of Scotland when they choose to go for another referendum ... something which i personally find both insulting and annoying

They can state whatever they like but it isn't up to the people of Scotland. Another referendum would need to be ratified by Westminster. That would be decades away if ever.

The independence lot had a great chance for independence, which they fluffed. It is gone.

elantan

hey listen i am annoyed as you about that bit ... its up to the people to decide gets my back up no end

zagubov

skintmacflint wrote: »

Élan tan from some of your posts I'm beginning to think you're a wind up merchant having a bit of fun on this thread.

What! In this sober debating chamber?:eek:

Moderators! To your stations!

CLAPTON

The conservative did of course try to change the election boundaries so that they were more equal in terms of voters per MP.

Labour of course opposed this fairness as it wasn't to their electoral advantage
and the LibDem in their usual venal childish way stamped their foot about something or other.

Interesting to speculate what the differences would have been, had the reforms gone through