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Estate agent Haart shows drop of 14% in south-west London in November
Comments
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Damik there will be no 'crash' in London despite the wobble we are seeing right now. A drop in asking prices from insane levels is not a crash.
Next phase - negative interest rates :T:rotfl:
1/ The economical cycles can not stopped. The current London gross rental yield is 3%, Sheffield is 11%.
2/ The BoE made it clear that they will increase the rates in 2015. They do not care to burn London if rest of England is flat. What it is ...0 -
Damik there will be no 'crash' in London despite the wobble we are seeing right now. A drop in asking prices from insane levels is not a crash.
The places which are seeing the most dramatic cuts in asking prices have just experienced between 25 to 50% HPI in the last 18 months. Of course there is going to be some coming back down to reality after that kind of mania. But don't mistake this for a crash or a correction.
IF there is a correction of some sort, for it to mean anything there has to be supply for you to actually buy a house at the lower prices. People will just pull their houses from the market if they think it's a falling market - interest rates are going to be low until at least 2016, unemployment is on the decline and wages are finally starting to catch up - there is no pressure for people to sell their houses at lower prices. Sure you will get the odd divorcee etc. but these people are a tiny part of the market.
The housing market should have corrected long ago, it's insane that there has been so much government meddling. No one on here is going to deny that our housing market has been propped up to the high heavens. But this very fact is the reason you will not see a HPC for a good number of years (IMO 10+ years). People on HPC have very short memories as they are willing on a Labour win in 2015. Have they forgotten that it was Brown who started all this off? There is too much riding on the housing market, no politician is going to allow it to crash on their watch if they can do anything about it, and boy can they do a lot.
Next phase - negative interest rates :T:rotfl:
The market has only been held up as a consequence of saving the banks, and banks don`t make money from fat old pensioners sitting in houses they paid the mortgage on years ago, banks make money from increased lending volumes, so there has to be a crash if banks ever hope to get lending going again. The props will be removed after the election. George has messed around with stamp duty and taxes and already we have the 14% drop, there is PLENTY they can do to CAUSE a crash that benefits the banks.0 -
1/ The economical cycles can not stopped. The current London gross rental yield is 3%, Sheffield is 11%.
Are you being serious?
The housing market has defied all logic for donkeys years, helped by our rulers who are deep !!!! in BTL.
Forget cycles when billions of taxpayers money is being used to manipulate a market.
2/ The BoE made it clear that they will increase the rates in 2015. They do not care to burn London if rest of England is flat. What it is ...
Do you remember Carney saying he will raise rates when GDP gets going? Do you remember Carney saying he will raise rates when unemployment falls?
Interest rates are not going anywhere for a good 2 years, there might be 0.25% movements here and there but you won't be seeing 4% base rates for a loooooong time my friend.
Plus the slump in oil prices which no one saw coming may push us further towards deflation, especially in the Eurozone, so with that backdrop the BoE would be seen as crazy to hike rates.0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »The market has only been held up as a consequence of saving the banks, and banks don`t make money from fat old pensioners sitting in houses they paid the mortgage on years ago, banks make money from increased lending volumes, so there has to be a crash if banks ever hope to get lending going again. The props will be removed after the election. George has messed around with stamp duty and taxes and already we have the 14% drop, there is PLENTY they can do to CAUSE a crash that benefits the banks.
What king of logic is this? Banks want to lend more therefore want a house price crash?
Err one small problem, the assets against which they have lent billions of pounds also drop in value as a consequence. :rotfl::rotfl:
Banks do not want a house price crash. Pfftttt this is so painful.0 -
Are you being serious?
The housing market has defied all logic for donkeys years, helped by our rulers who are deep !!!! in BTL.
Forget cycles when billions of taxpayers money is being used to manipulate a market.
Do you remember Carney saying he will raise rates when GDP gets going? Do you remember Carney saying he will raise rates when unemployment falls?
Interest rates are not going anywhere for a good 2 years, there might be 0.25% movements here and there but you won't be seeing 4% base rates for a loooooong time my friend.
Plus the slump in oil prices which no one saw coming may push us further towards deflation, especially in the Eurozone, so with that backdrop the BoE would be seen as crazy to hike rates.
Slump in oil prices will destroy the Aberdeen housing market, this will in turn impact sentiment in the rest of Scotland which is back at 2004 prices anyway, so that is that sorted. London will be popping from early next year and a UKIP surge and imminent break up of the EZ will finish the job there and in any bits of England/Wales that haven`t already slipped back ten years in price. We needn`t mention NI on a HPI hungry forum :rotfl: so that about clears it up. Oh, the UK will raise rates when the US tells it to, not before, not after, and we don`t need rates up for the crash that the title of this thread tells us may have started anyway.0 -
What king of logic is this? Banks want to lend more therefore want a house price crash?
Err one small problem, the assets against which they have lent billions of pounds also drop in value as a consequence. :rotfl::rotfl:
Banks do not want a house price crash. Pfftttt this is so painful.
Do you know how many people have a mortgage as opposed to owning outright? Do you know how many people rent?0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »Do you know how many people have a mortgage as opposed to owning outright? Do you know how many people rent?
I do, actually, as I read HPC.co.uk. I am just not allowed to post on there because I am banned.
Even if only 1% of all property were mortgaged, the only figure that matters is not the 99% of property which are not mortgaged but rather ther aggregate value of the 1% of properties which are mortgaged.
Property debt is close to one TRILLION POUNDS:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/was/wealth-in-great-britain-wave-2/the-burden-of-property-debt-in-great-britain/sty-household-debt--for-theme-page-.html0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »Slump in oil prices will destroy the Aberdeen housing market, this will in turn impact sentiment in the rest of Scotland which is back at 2004 prices anyway, so that is that sorted. London will be popping from early next year and a UKIP surge and imminent break up of the EZ will finish the job there and in any bits of England/Wales that haven`t already slipped back ten years in price. We needn`t mention NI on a HPI hungry forum :rotfl: so that about clears it up. Oh, the UK will raise rates when the US tells it to, not before, not after, and we don`t need rates up for the crash that the title of this thread tells us may have started anyway.
This is just so full of crap it's not worth replying to with a serious response. UKIP will be lucky to get 3 seats in May and pigs will fly before the UK is allowed to leave the EU.0 -
I do, actually, as I read HPC.co.uk. I am just not allowed to post on there because I am banned.
Even if only 1% of all property were mortgaged, the only figure that matters is not the 99% of property which are not mortgaged but rather ther aggregate value of the 1% of properties which are mortgaged.
Property debt is close to one TRILLION POUNDS:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/was/wealth-in-great-britain-wave-2/the-burden-of-property-debt-in-great-britain/sty-household-debt--for-theme-page-.html
Did you get banned for posting charts that were years out of date? The UK banks survived a GLOBAL economic meltdown, many other countries have already had their property crashes, do you expect us to believe that with all the QE and other nonsense that UK banks can`t appear solvent through a UK property correction? They will do MASSIVE mortgage business and offset their losses with even a 40% correction.0 -
This is just so full of crap it's not worth replying to with a serious response. UKIP will be lucky to get 3 seats in May and pigs will fly before the UK is allowed to leave the EU.
The EZ will break up, the UK won`t have any option but to leave
:rotfl: It would be like trying to continue with a party in a house that has just had a gas explosion :rotfl:0
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