Estate agent Haart shows drop of 14% in south-west London in November

kinger101

DRP wrote: »

They want new customers, not ones that have just bought a house!

Sounds like you there are plenty of bargains to be had in the London market - I'm heading straight down to Haart!!

And don't forget, the streets are paved with gold there too!

Crashy_Time

kinger101 wrote: »

Fewer data points. For example, you can't tell if a dice is loaded by rolling it six times. You could if you rolled it 1,000.

You might be right about the managing expectations. It makes more sense for an estate agent to sell 10 houses at £250K than 8 at £260K (figures for illustration only). They're more interested in a quick sale than the highest price. But their motivation for the press release doesn't alter the fact that they can not know until they have credible data.

A Martian landing and taking a quick look at Halifax data for example would think that UK house prices were rising, but in most of the country they are not? An estate agent saying that achievable prices are dropping is just as credible for me. Most people seemed to find it credible when EA`s said prices will rise by X or Y next year?

kinger101

Crashy_Time wrote: »

A Martian landing and taking a quick look at Halifax data for example would think that UK house prices were rising, but in most of the country they are not? An estate agent saying that achievable prices are dropping is just as credible for me. Most people seemed to find it credible when EA`s said prices will rise by X or Y next year?

OK, at this point, I've given up an trying to explain the importance of sample size in statistics.

Crashy_Time

kinger101 wrote: »

OK, at this point, I've given up an trying to explain the importance of sample size in statistics.

Large drops in London won`t be "smoothed out" by the nationwide figures, they will drag the nationwide figures down.

kinger101

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Large drops in London won`t be "smoothed out" by the nationwide figures, they will drag the nationwide figures down.

I see you left the bullish bits of the press release out:

Despite the signs of a marked London slowdown, Haart said it was confident prices nationally would rise again in 2015, with 11 buyers chasing each property for sale. “We are optimistic for 2015 and while we may not see the market reach the giddy heights of the first half of this year, which is no bad thing, we predict that property price growth will remain strong and confidence will continue to ride a high as we approach the next election.”

I should have guessed from your name that you are heavily prone to confirmation bias.

Crashy_Time

kinger101 wrote: »

I see you left the bullish bits of the press release out:

Despite the signs of a marked London slowdown, Haart said it was confident prices nationally would rise again in 2015, with 11 buyers chasing each property for sale. “We are optimistic for 2015 and while we may not see the market reach the giddy heights of the first half of this year, which is no bad thing, we predict that property price growth will remain strong and confidence will continue to ride a high as we approach the next election.”

I should have guessed from your name that you are heavily prone to confirmation bias.

Of course, as you said - "But their motivation for the press release doesn't alter the fact that they can not know until they have credible data"


I should have guessed from your unwillingness to engage with the size of the drops that you are heavily invested in prices continuing to go up? Of course with nonsense like "11 buyers chasing each property for sale" I am now inclined to just ignore the whole thing as well :rotfl:

Crashy_Time

DRP wrote: »

They want new customers, not ones that have just bought a house!

Sounds like you there are plenty of bargains to be had in the London market - I'm heading straight down to Haart!!

Yep, the EA doesn`t really care what happens to your house price once you have paid their commission, same way as the banks don`t really care how much your house is worth if you have paid off your mortgage, that doesn`t affect their accounts at all.

kinger101

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Of course, as you said - "But their motivation for the press release doesn't alter the fact that they can not know until they have credible data"


I should have guessed from your unwillingness to engage with the size of the drops that you are heavily invested in prices continuing to go up? Of course with nonsense like "11 buyers chasing each property for sale" I am now inclined to just ignore the whole thing as well :rotfl:

So now you agree the press release is rubbish (when it says something you dislike). FYI, I have no interest in property prices increasing.

Crashy_Time

kinger101 wrote: »

So now you agree the press release is rubbish (when it says something you dislike). FYI, I have no interest in property prices increasing.

When was the last time you saw a press release talking about 14% drops? 2008? 1989? That in itself is significant IMO.

tkane

damik wrote: »

Survey by estate agent Haart shows drop of 14% in south-west London in November, compared with 1.9% for capital as whole

Haart said prices in north London fell by 6.7% last month alone, while in south-west London, stretching from Richmond to Streatham, prices were now down 14% over the past year. “House prices in this postcode area have been particularly ‘frothy’ in the good times over the past few years, so will naturally see a more significant dip during the ‘cooling off’ period,” said Haart.

The Guardian, Monday 22 December 2014

Damik there will be no 'crash' in London despite the wobble we are seeing right now. A drop in asking prices from insane levels is not a crash.

The places which are seeing the most dramatic cuts in asking prices have just experienced between 25 to 50% HPI in the last 18 months. Of course there is going to be some coming back down to reality after that kind of mania. But don't mistake this for a crash or a correction.

IF there is a correction of some sort, for it to mean anything there has to be supply for you to actually buy a house at the lower prices. People will just pull their houses from the market if they think it's a falling market - interest rates are going to be low until at least 2016, unemployment is on the decline and wages are finally starting to catch up - there is no pressure for people to sell their houses at lower prices. Sure you will get the odd divorcee etc. but these people are a tiny part of the market.

The housing market should have corrected long ago, it's insane that there has been so much government meddling. No one on here is going to deny that our housing market has been propped up to the high heavens. But this very fact is the reason you will not see a HPC for a good number of years (IMO 10+ years). People on HPC have very short memories as they are willing on a Labour win in 2015. Have they forgotten that it was Brown who started all this off? There is too much riding on the housing market, no politician is going to allow it to crash on their watch if they can do anything about it, and boy can they do a lot.

Next phase - negative interest rates :T:rotfl: