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Estate agent Haart shows drop of 14% in south-west London in November
Comments
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Crashy_Time wrote: »How many people lapped up the EA`s pronouncements when the market was climbing though? Did people do their own due diligence then?
I don't know. I'm not for lapping up anything dished up as a press release. I know how press officers work. You hand them the facts, and they change them as they see fit."Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance" - Confucius0 -
I don't know. I'm not for lapping up anything dished up as a press release. I know how press officers work. You hand them the facts, and they change them as they see fit.
Are you saying that the EA`s are trying to manage seller expectations so that they (the EA`s) can get more business?0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »That report is now out of date though, and this new data contradicts it?
No, because it's one months data from one estate agent, which might only be based on asking price in any event. Wait for the Q4 data from someone who knows how to compile and analyse the data."Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance" - Confucius0 -
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The EA's don't have even a basic grasp of statistics though. The three reliable indices are Nationwide, Halifax, and most importantly, the land registry. This last one is always a few months behind the others though.
One estate agent's data for one month is pointless. You cannot infer anything from it. There's too little data, and too much variation in the underlying assets. Not all three bed semis are equal for example.
Last LR data for Kensington and Chelsea -> about 3% down
And it is 3 months old ...0 -
No, because it's one months data from one estate agent, which might only be based on asking price in any event. Wait for the Q4 data from someone who knows how to compile and analyse the data.
Even if it is asking price, the drops are quite large? Why shouldn`t an agent on the ground be just as credible as stats which are compiled using different methods depending on the body producing them. Most property outside London and the SE is at 2004 prices, if that, yet until recently we were told that according to statistics "UK property prices are rising"?0 -
For clarify, I'm not arguing whether prices are going up or down. Personally, it would benefit me if they do come down (softly). I'm just saying get the data from a reliable source, and ignore whatever spin someone tries to put on it."Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance" - Confucius0
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For clarify, I'm not arguing whether prices are going up or down. Personally, it would benefit me if they do come down (softly). I'm just saying get the data from a reliable source, and ignore whatever spin someone tries to put on it.
The question I am asking is why would a London EA want to spin sizeable drops in asking/selling prices? If I had just bought a house in SW London I would be concerned by that headline.0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »Even if it is asking price, the drops are quite large? Why shouldn`t an agent on the ground be just as credible as stats which are compiled using different methods depending on the body producing them. Most property outside London and the SE is at 2004 prices, if that, yet until recently we were told that according to statistics "UK property prices are rising"?
Fewer data points. For example, you can't tell if a dice is loaded by rolling it six times. You could if you rolled it 1,000.
You might be right about the managing expectations. It makes more sense for an estate agent to sell 10 houses at £250K than 8 at £260K (figures for illustration only). They're more interested in a quick sale than the highest price. But their motivation for the press release doesn't alter the fact that they can not know until they have credible data."Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance" - Confucius0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »The question I am asking is why would a London EA want to spin sizeable drops in asking/selling prices? If I had just bought a house in SW London I would be concerned by that headline.
They want new customers, not ones that have just bought a house!
Sounds like you there are plenty of bargains to be had in the London market - I'm heading straight down to Haart!!0
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