Economists Urge Scotland to Vote No......

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

It would seem to me, that if the voters of Scotland will it, they could be independent within 10 years.


Depends upon events of course.

They only just got asked and said no.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

They only just got asked and said no.

indeed so


but who can say how the views of the voters of Scotland will evolve
if it were like Quebec then they would lose interest
but the situation in the UK is very different.
The SNP seem to be in a fairly strong position to capitalise on a already decent position.


In any event, my point is that if the Scots really want independence they will not be denied by UK major parties and 10 years is a feasible timescale.

chewmylegoff

CLAPTON wrote: »

indeed so


but who can say how the views of the voters of Scotland will evolve
if it were like Quebec then they would lose interest
but the situation in the UK is very different.
The SNP seem to be in a fairly strong position to capitalise on a already decent position.


In any event, my point is that if the Scots really want independence they will not be denied by UK major parties and 10 years is a feasible timescale.

Well yes, but the recent referendum suggests that the Scots don't really want independence and that those calling for independence are just a particularly vocal minority.

If the Scots now vote in a load of SNP MPs that doesn't change that it simply means that they voted in a load of SNP MPs who will have no democratic mandate to pursue an independence agenda given the recent referendum result.

Of course if there is a massive groundswell in favour of independence then things may change but it seems unlikely that will happen anytime soon as the SNP couldn't sell independence to the electorate on the basis that it would be an economic triumph and everyone would be richer - now that, due to falling oil prices, their own economic projections will show that independence would make Scotland worse off all they will have is the 'Braveheart' card which will be rather trumped by the fact that they will have* to admit that everyone will be worse off.


*= alright they won't admit it, they will still claim everyone will be better off by claiming that Scottish whiskey generates 71/70ths of UK GDP and "Westminster" is stealing all of the proceeds.

purch

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Well yes, but the recent referendum suggests that the Scots don't really want independence and that those calling for independence are just a particularly vocal minority.

No, the Scots don't actually want independence, but they do want to able to choose not to have it, rather than be told they can't have it.

Tromking

I always thought it was a bit canny of the Scots to vote SNP for Holyrood and then vote Labour for Westminster, one decision seemed to be a useful foil for the other IMO. I can`t help but think that the more Scotland abandons the UK Unionist parties coupled with the fact that there wont be a referendum for 15/20 years will make them broadly speaking increasingly irrelevant in UK wide politics. If Scotland ceases to be part of the UK political battlefield, who cares what they think.

padington

Here's a great book about the beginning of this story ...

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Great-Terrible-King-Forging-Britain/dp/0099481758

Still in a plain coffin to this day, turning and turning.

If you follow his family tree down from one of his kids, I'm twenty generations below.

Don't tell the scots.

CLAPTON

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Well yes, but the recent referendum suggests that the Scots don't really want independence and that those calling for independence are just a particularly vocal minority.

If the Scots now vote in a load of SNP MPs that doesn't change that it simply means that they voted in a load of SNP MPs who will have no democratic mandate to pursue an independence agenda given the recent referendum result.

Of course if there is a massive groundswell in favour of independence then things may change but it seems unlikely that will happen anytime soon as the SNP couldn't sell independence to the electorate on the basis that it would be an economic triumph and everyone would be richer - now that, due to falling oil prices, their own economic projections will show that independence would make Scotland worse off all they will have is the 'Braveheart' card which will be rather trumped by the fact that they will have* to admit that everyone will be worse off.


*= alright they won't admit it, they will still claim everyone will be better off by claiming that Scottish whiskey generates 71/70ths of UK GDP and "Westminster" is stealing all of the proceeds.

I think you over estimate the intelligence of the Scottish electorate : any electorate that could be influenced by all the faux rubbish about the English NHS but doesn't question the failings of their own doesn't inspire confidence in their decision making.

Tromking

CLAPTON wrote: »

I think you over estimate the intelligence of the Scottish electorate : any electorate that could be influenced by all the faux rubbish about the English NHS but doesn't question the failings of their own doesn't inspire confidence in their decision making.

I agree.
There does seem to be an arrogance with some Nationalists who think that somehow the Scottish electorate are on a different intellectual plane than the rest of the UK.
They seem to have bought hook, line and sinker the SNP tactic that any opinion contrary to a populist English one (eg. Euro-scepticism) somehow makes them appear more intellectual and outward looking than the English. Couple that with the myth that Scots are to their core more socially progressive than the English, when in truth having the English block grant to spend has created and fostered that culture, then the idea that the Scots electorate are in anyway more sophisticated than anywhere else is a false one.

ruggedtoast

It's pretty unlikely any of the major parties will agree to a power sharing coalition with a group of Scottish nationalists who are almost universally disliked in the rest of the UK, and have set themselves in opposition to the existence of a union.

Scotland really doesn't need to be led by the Pushme-Pullyou of Sturgeon and the SNP. I hope they find a better government to vote for.

ruggedtoast

Tromking wrote: »

I agree.
There does seem to be an arrogance with some Nationalists who think that somehow the Scottish electorate are on a different intellectual plane than the rest of the UK.
They seem to have bought hook, line and sinker the SNP tactic that any opinion contrary to a populist English one (eg. Euro-scepticism) somehow makes them appear more intellectual and outward looking than the English. Couple that with the myth that Scots are to their core more socially progressive than the English, when in truth having the English block grant to spend has created and fostered that culture, then the idea that the Scots electorate are in anyway more sophisticated than anywhere else is a false one.

An assumption of exceptionalism is the cornerstone of racism.

As Generali said once, you'll never convince a racist that they arent a member of the master race.