Economists Urge Scotland to Vote No......

Generali

ruggedtoast wrote: »

There has been a novel, and rather febrile environment, for the last couple off years where much of our politics has been seem through the prism of Scotland's referendum.

Scotland has had its say, it voted for the status quo

It seems that the SNP want to push on ahead with independence regardless:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/salmond-independence-can-happen-without-referendum.25385478

or perhaps push for the Neverendum that many Unionists predicted would be SNP's plan B:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11230833/Nicola-Sturgeon-puts-second-referendum-at-top-of-agenda.html

Of course with oil prices tumbling, an independent Scotland would have to slash spending as they would no longer have the stabilisation inherent in being part of a large Union with a highly diverse revenue stream.

It seems that Scotland pretty much pays its way in the Union with oil prices at $110/bbl. It looks like it'll be a long time before that happens again.

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

It seems that the SNP want to push on ahead with independence regardless:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/salmond-independence-can-happen-without-referendum.25385478

or perhaps push for the Neverendum that many Unionists predicted would be SNP's plan B:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11230833/Nicola-Sturgeon-puts-second-referendum-at-top-of-agenda.html

Of course with oil prices tumbling, an independent Scotland would have to slash spending as they would no longer have the stabilisation inherent in being part of a large Union with a highly diverse revenue stream.

It seems that Scotland pretty much pays its way in the Union with oil prices at $110/bbl. It looks like it'll be a long time before that happens again.

I guess if the Scots are silly enough to vote to remain in the Union, then also vote for a regional government that will perpetually undermine their place within it, then that is their lookout?

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

It seems that the SNP want to push on ahead with independence regardless:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/salmond-independence-can-happen-without-referendum.25385478

or perhaps push for the Neverendum that many Unionists predicted would be SNP's plan B:

That headline and story is from months ago. The Herald do like clinging to this Indyref2 type headline. But usually when you read the whole article the quote from Alex or Nicola will something like 'an Eu out vote may trigger another call for a referendum' or something along those lines. But as far as I've read, neither have come out with an outright demand for a re-run asap. Just that it's a possibility in the future depending on circumstances and events. Same with Nicola in the Telegraph article. She's not actually calling for another referendum right now.

“But that will only happen when a majority of our fellow citizens vote for that in a referendum so our task remains as it has always been, not to impose our will, not to berate those who disagree with us, but to persuade.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11230833/Nicola-Sturgeon-puts-second-referendum-at-top-of-agenda.html

And anyway, it's the Scots electorate themselves that will dictate where things go. Not the SNP.

Of course with oil prices tumbling, an independent Scotland would have to slash spending as they would no longer have the stabilisation inherent in being part of a large Union with a highly diverse revenue stream.

It seems that Scotland pretty much pays its way in the Union with oil prices at $110/bbl. It looks like it'll be a long time before that happens again.

Out of interest what was George Osborne's oil price prediction for basing his finances on for this and next year ?

You're still fighting/debating a referendum campaign Generali. We all need to move on. Though I have no doubt the SNP will be the subject of a few more discussions and debates over the next few months. While independence is of course one of their main aims.. they haven't been outright calling for another referendum. Newspaper headlines and other news outlets will no doubt take a load of suckers in again on that one in the run up till May ( in fact it's already started ).

They're much more interested more powers at the present time. The media is only just waking up to just how much they could/may achieve.. after wasting acres of column inches and Question Time coverage worrying about Farage. Salmond once again, must be keeping Milliband and Cameron up at night..

The SNP is on course to hold the balance of power in Westminster after the next election as a poll revealed almost half of all Scottish voters plan to back the party.

A staggering collapse in Labour's appeal north of the border will see the Nationalists win 54 of the 59 Scottish constituencies and play a central role in any Coalition negotiations, pollsters found.

The predictions raise the prospect of Alex Salmond, the SNP's former First Minister who is running for Parliament, becoming a minister in the next UK Government – a scenario unimaginable six months ago when he led the campaign to break up the Union with Scottish independence.

The poll also reveals the depth of Labour's problem in Scotland and reveals the challenge Jim Murphy faces in turning around the party's fortunes after becoming Scottish Labour leader.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11307543/SNP-on-course-to-hold-balance-of-power-in-Westminster-according-to-new-poll-showing-depth-of-Labours-collapse.html

Generali

Well actually my main point is that Nationalists seemed very keen to take control of Scottish finances when oil was $110/bbl but are less so at $60/bbl.

You don't seem willing to address the implications of that.

elantan

nope i disagree ,,, if say Wm turned round to Holyrood right now and said tell you what you can be independent tomorrow, no string attached they would jump at it ... i know i would...

If they were to be offered Devo max instead of independence they would jump at that till independence happened ...

ruggedtoast

Shakethedisease wrote: »

That headline and story is from months ago. The Herald do like clinging to this Indyref2 type headline. But usually when you read the whole article the quote from Alex or Nicola will something like 'an Eu out vote may trigger another call for a referendum' or something along those lines. But as far as I've read, neither have come out with an outright demand for a re-run asap. Just that it's a possibility in the future depending on circumstances and events. Same with Nicola in the Telegraph article. She's not actually calling for another referendum right now.

It isn't a possibility in any future that exists on planet earth in our lifetimes.

You and your SNP buddies had your chance and you blew it.

With years of preparation, misusing the civil service to print lies, lotto loungers funding you, a legion of bitter and vengeful cyber bullies on the net and another army of radical leftists and doleites on the streets, you failed to win a referendum against a hated Tory government in your own backyard.

You are never, ever, getting independence. Just acclimatise yourself to that fact and move on.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Out of interest what was George Osborne's oil price prediction for basing his finances on for this and next year ?

GO doesn't forecast the oil price.

Good article in the FT today.

Scotland’s North Sea revenues would have slumped to one fifth of Holyrood’s preferred forecasts in its first year of independence if Scots had voted Yes in September, according to an Office for Budget Responsibility simulation using current oil prices.
The OBR projections, which take into account a dramatically lower oil price than the one used in Scottish government forecasts, highlight how the nation could have been saved from a crisis in its public finances by voting No in the referendum.
Had Scotland voted Yes to independence, it would now be looking at oil revenues of £1.25bn instead of £6.9bn in 2016-17 — its first year as a new country — while facing a deficit of close to 6 per cent of national income, compared with a UK forecast of 2.1 per cent.

zagubov

Thrugelmir wrote: »

GO doesn't forecast the oil price.

Good article in the FT today.

Interesting way to spend money for an outfit calling itself the Office for Budget Responsibility.Not the taxpayers money surely?

Oh wait a moment, they're civil servants funded by the English, Northern Irish, Welsh and ...... the Scots.

Was that another example of Scotland's money well spent by the UK establishment? Come on, Westminster, up your game!

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

Well actually my main point is that Nationalists seemed very keen to take control of Scottish finances when oil was $110/bbl but are less so at $60/bbl.

You don't seem willing to address the implications of that.

There are no implications. Scotland voted No. And even if they had voted Yes, Scotland wouldn't have been independent until at least, March 2016.

Why would you or anyone else want to delve deep into very volatile oil prices, that are probably being kept artificially low by Saudi/USA game playing re Russia/Iran etc.. It's volatile and that's the way oil prices always are and always have been. Implications in UK politics at the moment. Nil.

Why don't you think about the very possible implications of a Labour/SNP deal in Westminster in May 2015 in power for a fixed 5 years.. in terms of UK economics and anti-austerity policies ?

You won ! It really is time to start acting like it. And boring on about potential implications of oil prices for a fantasy independent Scotland in 2014 when they wouldn't have even been independent until 2016 certainly isn't accepting the referendum result.

There are NO implications. So no-one on the Yes side is 'avoiding' anything. Suits the media though ( like FT ) to keep harping on about it. Saves them from panicing about about what might happen in May 2015 instead.

Shakethedisease

ruggedtoast wrote: »

It isn't a possibility in any future that exists on planet earth in our lifetimes.

You and your SNP buddies had your chance and you blew it.

With years of preparation, misusing the civil service to print lies, lotto loungers funding you, a legion of bitter and vengeful cyber bullies on the net and another army of radical leftists and doleites on the streets, you failed to win a referendum against a hated Tory government in your own backyard.

You are never, ever, getting independence. Just acclimatise yourself to that fact and move on.

I bow to you your most 'oracleness' of politics. I pointed out months ago the delicious thought of a No vote that would result in the balance of power in Westminster being held by the SNP. And backed it up with polls as well. The SNP surge hasn't been caused by the referendum. It has been bubbling up over the last few years.

At the end of the day, Independence was a leap too far.. fair do's. But in terms of a choice between Milliband/Murphy and Sturgeon/Hosie/Salmond/Robertson as to who will act in the best interests of Scotland ? We'll see.. and they're bringing the fight to you this time. Am sure you're looking forward to Salmond back wall to wall on your tv screens as much as I am !

And a Tory government in our 'own backyard' ? What are you on about petal ? Tories are a complete irrelevance in Scotland. Labour is heading that way too. Actually, so are the Lib Dems... That's possibly the problem in a nutshell to be honest <--- Hmm after typing that, yes, that's probably it. Labour was once a 'movement' with a political arm. SNP is a political arm, that somehow, seems to have become an all encompassing 'independence movement' over the last year. Even for groups and other parties who don't agree with the SNP on everything, or even anything much. I don't think it's a common goal that's going to be stoppable any time soon. In fact it seems to be gathering momentum again.

It might not be an immediate thing. But I wouldn't discount an independent Scotland ever. How mad lol !

I wish you and everyone here a wonderful Xmas and New Year. I've had a great time debating, highs and lows re the Scottish ref over the last year especially. I'm sure there is much more we can debate on, coming up to May and well beyond. But heartfelt best wishes to everyone here.