London Has Peaked

Bubble_and_Squeak

happylucky wrote: »

"I keep my distance but you still catch my eye"

If I were you I would watch the market very carefully and hold off until Q3 2015.

is that bull sarcasm?
if not could you put some meat on the bones?

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i don't know if it will happen in two years
if QE is the only tool they will use i think two years is about the time it will kick off
but
i have previously underestimated the ability of the powers that be to come up with new ways to keep the show on the road
as george michael once said "once bitten, twice shy"
what would you do in my situation?

Bought in as early as possible then pay the mortgage off as soon as possible:T

happylucky

Not being sarcastic in the slightest, recent research from cebr (I think it was them) forecast 8.5% drop in London between Q3 2014 and Q3 2015.

There's a lag of almost 6 months between offers being verbally agreed and when sales data hits the land registry....sufficient data to determine a big down turn or not is only coming in now based on sales agreed in July. Only when this data is really confirming a downturn will sellers either withdraw or be genuinely motivated to reduce asking prices en masse.

Just my humble opinion. Good luck to you.

System

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

what would you do in my situation?

Build a time machine and buy 12 months ago.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i don't know if it will happen in two years

I'd guessed that.

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

what would you do in my situation?

The best time to buy is when you need/ want to, have found a place you like, can afford it and have the finance.

If I needed/ wanted to buy in October '13 and was able I'd already have a nice 3 bed in the stow for c£280k. Pre-internet you'd be in the same position.

However, that ship has sailed for you. Given your stop/ start house hunting I wonder if you really want to buy. I also wonder how you'd cope if prices fell just after completion.

Houses look really expensive to me right now (especially in London) and wouldn't be surprised if they fell a bit but I've probably been having that very thought for over two decades now.

Bubble_and_Squeak

happylucky wrote: »

Not being sarcastic in the slightest, recent research from cebr (I think it was them) forecast 8.5% drop in London between Q3 2014 and Q3 2015.

There's a lag of almost 6 months between offers being verbally agreed and when sales data hits the land registry....sufficient data to determine a big down turn or not is only coming in now based on sales agreed in July. Only when this data is really confirming a downturn will sellers either withdraw or be genuinely motivated to reduce asking prices en masse.

Just my humble opinion. Good luck to you.

its interesting how people have a different perception of how long this time lag is. i'm of the opinion that its 3-4 months. the consensus of the bulls on here seems to be 2-3 months, with the exception of danny, who thinks its 2-3 weeks

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

I'd guessed that.



The best time to buy is when you need/ want to, have found a place you like, can afford it and have the finance.

If I needed/ wanted to buy in October '13 and was able I'd already have a nice 3 bed in the stow for c£280k. Pre-internet you'd be in the same position.

However, that ship has sailed for you. Given your stop/ start house hunting I wonder if you really want to buy. I also wonder how you'd cope if prices fell just after completion.

Houses look really expensive to me right now (especially in London) and wouldn't be surprised if they fell a bit but I've probably been having that very thought for over two decades now.

well, i only viewed one property that i actually liked during october, november, december 2013. that was the very first one i viewed. with the benefit of hindsight i should have bought it but at that point in time i wanted to see what else was out there.
i've already told you how i would cope if prices fall after i complete.

wotsthat

happylucky wrote: »

There's a lag of almost 6 months between offers being verbally agreed and when sales data hits the land registry....sufficient data to determine a big down turn or not is only coming in now based on sales agreed in July.

There's a flaw in the logic.

1) The latest sold data available is from the end of November (only six weeks ago) and they might have received an offer 4 weeks before. That's 10 weeks total.

2) I make an offer on a place, turn up to exchange contracts a couple of weeks before completion and notice the neighbours are selling the same house for £50k less. Why would I exchange contracts?

It doesn't matter when the verbal offer was made. The price isn't agreed until the exchange of contracts. If the contracts are exchanged it's because both parties still agree that the price is correct.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

its interesting how people have a different perception of how long this time lag is. i'm of the opinion that its 3-4 months. the consensus of the bulls on here seems to be 2-3 months, with the exception of danny, who thinks its 2-3 weeks

Well as you can see from latest sold data it's about 6 weeks from completion to seeing it on Land Reg.

However, Land Reg data for, say, November represents completions for November and so the price (at exchange of contracts) will have been agreed only a few weeks before.

Verbal price agreements mean nothing as I've explained. If the perceived difference is small between verbal and exchange then usually the parties have too much time invested to argue about it. If the perceived changes are significant then one of the parties would be made to proceed.

happylucky

Let's say an offer is verbally agreed end July. Typical time to exchange is say 6 weeks (brings us to mid Sept.) Add on 2 weeks for completion (start Oct) then 6 week lag minimum before that sale is published (end Nov.)

That's 4 months already and I'd guess those timeframes are overly optimistic for anything other than chain-free sales...