London Has Peaked

lisyloo

he is going to negotiate a 75% discount to asking price when he buys so will be crash proof

What's the definitely of crash then?
Looks like it's <25%.

Bubble_and_Squeak

i've never said there will be an imminent crash- merely a correction.
i believe a crash will occur in about 2 years, after several waves of QE by us, the US, the EU and japan as well as several dozen new props to keep things going until then.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

if there is a crash just after i buy i'll invite you all over to say i told you so!

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i've never said there will be an imminent crash.

Yeah, OK Squeaky......

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i've never said there will be an imminent crash- merely a correction.
i believe a crash will occur in about 2 years, after several waves of QE by us, the US, the EU and japan as well as several dozen new props to keep things going until then.

So you're going to buy a house in one of the most expensive cities in the world confident there will be a correction shortly after and a crash in two years?

I can't see the logic in buying a £300k house given your certainty it'll be worth £150k or less in two years.

cells

wotsthat wrote: »

So you're going to buy a house in one of the most expensive cities in the world confident there will be a correction shortly after and a crash in two years?

I can't see the logic in buying a £300k house given your certainty it'll be worth £150k or less in two years.

One of the factors seldom discussed is that UK homes are more expensive to build than say americanr french or german homes. As a result there is a floor which is mucj higher in the UK than elsewhere.

In france or germany they seem to be abke to build 120 sqm homes for 150 euros and sell at a profit. The UK builders literally cant do that with current policy. Policy which effectively acts as a big tax on new himes but rather than the tax going to gov it goes to whoever converted the agri land to development land (also some goes to the council via s106 or its derivatives)

Bubble_and_Squeak

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Yeah, OK Squeaky......

the crash statement was said in jest

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

So you're going to buy a house in one of the most expensive cities in the world confident there will be a correction shortly after and a crash in two years?

I can't see the logic in buying a £300k house given your certainty it'll be worth £150k or less in two years.

i believe the correction is currently underway
therefore i intend to buy while the market is correcting.
as for the crash, if the market is left to its own devices it will happen now. if the only additional tool they use to kick it into the long grass is QE it may happen in a couple of years. if they come up with something else who knows. i can wait a few months for the market to cool (which i have done) or i can sit around waiting.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i believe the correction is currently underway
therefore i intend to buy while the market is correcting.
as for the crash, if the market is left to its own devices it will happen now. if the only additional tool they use to kick it into the long grass is QE it may happen in a couple of years. if they come up with something else who knows. i can wait a few months for the market to cool (which i have done) or i can sit around waiting.

You're willing to buy now despite having absolute faith in your belief system which predicts a crash between now and the next couple of years. You must be on a wind-up - if you truly believed your scenario was going to play out your plans should appear nonsensical even to you.

You could 'sit around waiting' and in two years buy today's £600k house in the 'stow for 50% off. Instead you're planning on buying an unpleasant £300k 2 bed today that'll seem even grimmer when it's worth £150k in 2017.

This has all the hallmarks of a forum exit strategy. 'Yes, I'm buying but there's definitely a crash coming - seeya'.

Are BOMAD throwing you out - what's the rush?

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

You're willing to buy now despite having absolute faith in your belief system which predicts a crash between now and the next couple of years. You must be on a wind-up - if you truly believed your scenario was going to play out your plans should appear nonsensical even to you.

You could 'sit around waiting' and in two years buy today's £600k house in the 'stow for 50% off. Instead you're planning on buying an unpleasant £300k 2 bed today that'll seem even grimmer when it's worth £150k in 2017.

This has all the hallmarks of a forum exit strategy. 'Yes, I'm buying but there's definitely a crash coming - seeya'.

Are BOMAD throwing you out - what's the rush?

i don't know if it will happen in two years
if QE is the only tool they will use i think two years is about the time it will kick off
but
i have previously underestimated the ability of the powers that be to come up with new ways to keep the show on the road
as george michael once said "once bitten, twice shy"
what would you do in my situation?

happylucky

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

as george michael once said "once bitten, twice shy"
what would you do in my situation?

"I keep my distance but you still catch my eye"

If I were you I would watch the market very carefully and hold off until Q3 2015.