London Has Peaked

Bubble_and_Squeak

padington wrote: »

I don't recal anyone saying that prices would go down last year, oh hang on, yes there might have been one or two people that spectacularly got it wrong.

as jim kelly said to shih kien "wasn't me!"

Bubble_and_Squeak

lisyloo wrote: »

No, because the link you posted is merely the froth being blown off. It's not a significant crash down to 1997 prices. You're orders of magnitude out.
In the real world (people who don't talk about house prices every day) there is little concern and a belief that London and house prices in general will rise long term.

You've interpreted that as - everyone will wait.
I'm saying people will buy when it's sensible for them/their business - so for example for me that would be when buying becomes cheaper than renting.
Therefore my belief is London prices will find support pretty quickly.

In line with earning growth.

Is it?
It's not obvious to me with increasing population and not enough supply.
Why do you think that and why isn't increasing population, under supply and recovering economy enough?

we've just had possibly the biggest bubble ever in london on the back of zero earnings growth.

it doesn't matter how much the population grows by. if they haven't got access to credit they can't buy property (unless you expect the growth to be only rich people)

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

No, because the link you posted is merely the froth being blown off. It's not a significant crash down to 1997 prices. You're orders of magnitude out.
In the real world (people who don't talk about house prices every day) there is little concern and a belief that London and house prices in general will rise long term.

You've interpreted that as - everyone will wait.
I'm saying people will buy when it's sensible for them/their business - so for example for me that would be when buying becomes cheaper than renting.
Therefore my belief is London prices will find support pretty quickly.

In line with earning growth.

Is it?
It's not obvious to me with increasing population and not enough supply.
Why do you think that and why isn't increasing population, under supply and recovering economy enough?

Was there rioting and looting in Japan when it all went Pear Shaped?

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

No, because the link you posted is merely the froth being blown off. It's not a significant crash down to 1997 prices. You're orders of magnitude out.
In the real world (people who don't talk about house prices every day) there is little concern and a belief that London and house prices in general will rise long term.

You've interpreted that as - everyone will wait.
I'm saying people will buy when it's sensible for them/their business - so for example for me that would be when buying becomes cheaper than renting.
Therefore my belief is London prices will find support pretty quickly.

In line with earning growth.

Is it?
It's not obvious to me with increasing population and not enough supply.
Why do you think that and why isn't increasing population, under supply and recovering economy enough?

Because prices are dropping, and there are still emergency measures in place to prop up the market and wider economy?

cells

As long as london builds below 50k homes a yeary prices won't fall bar extremely unlikely events that any and all sane people would discount to zero. Eg things like an ebola type bug killing half the population would sure crash proces but thr chances of that happening is 0.000000000000000000.....0000000.000001%

Crashy_Time

cells wrote: »

As long as london builds below 50k homes a yeary prices won't fall bar extremely unlikely events that any and all sane people would discount to zero. Eg things like an ebola type bug killing half the population would sure crash proces but thr chances of that happening is 0.000000000000000000.....0000000.000001%

Prices are falling. The recent bubble on a bubble is QE money, overseas money, and should know better BOMAD/Previous equity money IMO. A lot of people have just seen their wealth drop with the oil price, and a lot of people can`t get credit like they used to. That is not insignificant for the London market. Don`t forget that people also leave the country as well, that is the reason we don`t see hundreds of thousands of homeless people marching to demand that someone build them a house to buy at bubble prices :rotfl:

Crashy_Time

padington wrote: »

Says the man who has been taken all his own advice for years and effectively lost a fortune from doing so.

Yes, your property is your fortune...just ask Fergus :rotfl:

lisyloo

Don`t forget that people also leave the country as well

I don't quite get your point here. We have net immigration i.e there are more people coming in than leaving and recently the figure went UP.

that is the reason we don`t see hundreds of thousands of homeless people marching to demand that someone build them a house to buy at bubble prices

I agree there isn't a big increase in homelessness.
Thankfully that state is still reserved for those who have fallen through the safety net or have problems like addiction.
There are definitely are more people in the country though and not enough housing to keep the occupancy levels ideal. This means people are sharing or staying with mum & dad for longer for longer.
Some immigrants are almost certainly sleeping in offices, garages, hotels and fishing boats.

There has been some complaining but there are a variety of reason they are not doing so.
When I was at uni I was having a great time and completely oblivoious to the economic situation outside my personal situation. I'm not sure many young people understand whether they are being shortchanged or not.

padington

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i don't recall any out of the ordinary predictions last year, apart from the usual prices will rise because they will stuff.
do they give any reason as to why prices will increase in 2015 or are they just talking up the market?

So why can't you see any out of the ordinary predications last year when you believe these pundits talk 'up the market' ?

Think about what you are saying.

cells

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Prices are falling. The recent bubble on a bubble is QE money, overseas money, and should know better BOMAD/Previous equity money IMO. A lot of people have just seen their wealth drop with the oil price, and a lot of people can`t get credit like they used to. That is not insignificant for the London market. Don`t forget that people also leave the country as well, that is the reason we don`t see hundreds of thousands of homeless people marching to demand that someone build them a house to buy at bubble prices :rotfl:

I don't know you but I know you aren't half as smart as you think you are