London Has Peaked

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

Totally agree Jason.
To spell it out. There would be looting and violence on the streets.

I can see a correction especially in London but I can't see a full on crash now things (unemployment, wages) are improving.
There are simply too many people that want a home or investment.
Most aren't going to attempt to catch a falling knife.

Surely that is why, when it crashes it is going to crash really hard. All the absolute morons must be in by now?

padington

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Surely that is why, when it crashes it is going to crash really hard. All the absolute morons must be in by now?

17 people are still chasing each house in London. Five year predictions are saying up by a third again. How else can you easily leverage your money tax free, save five years rent, build five years equity and possibly gain 33% capital appreciation ?

The problem with you crashists is more prices go down, more you don't want to buy AND more prices go up, more you don't want to buy either.

So you just keep renting.

Crashy_Time

padington wrote: »

17 people are still chasing each house in London. Five year predictions are saying up by a third again. How else can you easily leverage your money tax free, save five years rent, build five years equity and possibly gain 33% capital appreciation ?

The problem with you crashists is more prices go down, more you don't want to buy AND more prices go up, more you don't want to buy either.

So you just keep renting.

:rotfl: They are obviously not chasing hard enough.

padington

Crashy_Time wrote: »

:rotfl: They are obviously not chasing hard enough.

Oh yes they are, Greater London predicted up again for 2015 on almost all predications across the board ...

http://www.primeresi.com/forecasts-2015-a-review-of-property-market-predictions/49548/#axzz3MpIhyftl

Don't confuse prime central with greater London, two different markets now.

Bubble_and_Squeak

padington wrote: »

17 people are still chasing each house in London. Five year predictions are saying up by a third again. How else can you easily leverage your money tax free, save five years rent, build five years equity and possibly gain 33% capital appreciation ?

The problem with you crashists is more prices go down, more you don't want to buy AND more prices go up, more you don't want to buy either.

So you just keep renting.

and yet transactions are falling
i think we need to look at the methodology they use in coming up with these stats. i rang an EA the other day to inquire about a property in stratford. i suspect that my inquiry alone means that i'm one of the 17 "chasing" the property, along with the rest of the 16 that are not buying it.

Bubble_and_Squeak

padington wrote: »

Oh yes they are, Greater London predicted up again for 2015 on almost all predications across the board ...

http://www.primeresi.com/forecasts-2015-a-review-of-property-market-predictions/49548/#axzz3MpIhyftl

Don't confuse prime central with greater London, two different markets now.

predictions are meaningless
how many predicted the madness we saw this summer?

padington

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

predictions are meaningless
how many predicted the madness we saw this summer?

All of them predicted a big rise this year and everyone bar one is predicting a rise again.

Just saying.

Bubble_and_Squeak

padington wrote: »

All of them predictred a big rise this year and everyone bar one is predicting a rise again.

Just saying.

i don't recall any out of the ordinary predictions last year, apart from the usual prices will rise because they will stuff.
do they give any reason as to why prices will increase in 2015 or are they just talking up the market?
its obvious we will need another prop to even sustain these levels.

padington

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i don't recall any out of the ordinary predictions last year, apart from the usual prices will rise because they will stuff.
do they give any reason as to why prices will increase in 2015 or are they just talking up the market?
its obvious we will need another prop to even sustain these levels.

I don't recal anyone saying that prices would go down last year, oh hang on, yes there might have been one or two people that spectacularly got it wrong.

lisyloo

Are they looting and rioting in the streets down there yet

No, because the link you posted is merely the froth being blown off. It's not a significant crash down to 1997 prices. You're orders of magnitude out.
In the real world (people who don't talk about house prices every day) there is little concern and a belief that London and house prices in general will rise long term.

Surely that is why, when it crashes it is going to crash really hard. All the absolute morons must be in by now?

You've interpreted that as - everyone will wait.
I'm saying people will buy when it's sensible for them/their business - so for example for me that would be when buying becomes cheaper than renting.
Therefore my belief is London prices will find support pretty quickly.

do they give any reason as to why prices will increase in 2015 or are they just talking up the market?

In line with earning growth.

its obvious we will need another prop to even sustain these levels.

Is it?
It's not obvious to me with increasing population and not enough supply.
Why do you think that and why isn't increasing population, under supply and recovering economy enough?