London Has Peaked

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

your health, my dear chucks, your health

No! My dog's health and well being (strictly speaking I can't class my wife as an asset).

Bubble_and_Squeak

chucknorris wrote: »

No! My dog's health and well being (strictly speaking I can't class my wife as an asset).

ha!
you should look up the evolutionary history of dogs
very interesting

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

ha!
you should look up the evolutionary history of dogs
very interesting

I don't need to, they evolved from wolves. Obviously you are not married then, saying as you put yourself first.

Bubble_and_Squeak

chucknorris wrote: »

I don't need to, they evolved from wolves. Obviously you are not married then, saying as you put yourself first.

its the manner of the evolution that is interesting

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

hpi stops
bulls get offensive
so predictable

HPI has not stopped in London, it went up last year, it went up the year before. I anticipate that it will go up next year, but even if it doesn't at some point in the next 5 years it will be higher than it is now. You bears take these short term corrections/dips so seriously don't you.

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

its the manner of the evolution that is interesting

Whatever spin you put on it, it suited both species, I have not googled this but I believe that wolf cubs were taken and raised as working dogs. Then over the years, it became a beneficial relationship to both.


It makes perfect sense, dogs can help to hunt, guard and most of all provide meaningful companionship (although that come much later).


EDIT: I don't know if you have had dogs before but I can tell you that no matter how much you love your dog or are devoted to it, it will almost certainly love you more.

tkane

chucknorris wrote: »

HPI has not stopped in London, it went up last year, it went up the year before. I anticipate that it will go up next year, but even if it doesn't at some point in the next 5 years it will be higher than it is now. You bears take these short term corrections/dips so seriously don't you.

London zone 4/5 is still very active and prices still going up. Prime London going down from megal bubble territory was always going to happen but this is not a crash.

I would be gombsacked if a reasonably priced 3 bed terraced house anywhere in zone 4/5 in London takes more than a month to sell. By reasonably priced I mean at market value.

cells

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

increasing population needs money to buy
why is this concept so difficult for you to grasp?

biggest bubble in history while funding for lending cash was flowing and foreign money was pouring in

foreign money declining
probably will decline further with falling oil price

Its very simple

Any investment value is determined by its return and the economies interest rate whichy is both artifical and natural (also you need to factor in risk but for housing we can assume its close to zero risk as depopulation is close to zero risk and an alternative method of shelter being invented and popular is close to zero risk)

Then we simply have the return (rent) and the interest rate (about 4%) and we can figure out a value for housing.

In inner London the rents for 3 bed places are around £25k pa. With an interest rate of 4% such an investment is worth circa £625k and that's roughly the true ratios in London.


The only way for London to crash in price is if either rents crash or interest rates go up. Neither is likely. Rents don't move rapidly and for decades have been positive modest growth. As for interest rates they should naturally fall as an economy matures and develops and that has been pretty much true the 80s when the market was liberated.


in short London can get a lot more expensive as rates tend towards 3% and rents continue to go uo 3-5% a year.

the only way to ease pressure is to slow/stop rent price growth. Build 75k homes a year in London and rent price inflation may fall to zero or turn slightly negative and that will be a drag on hpi. Prices will still go up but at some point the occupancy rate will fall to a level towards maybe 2.1 whereby modest annual rent falls will keep hpi at zero or a modest negative number. You probably have to go towards an occupancy level of 2.0 to see lrices getting affordable but for a London of 12 million people (maybe around 2050) that would mean 6 million homes or an additional 2.5m homes inside the m25 over 35 years

cells

If you don't take the time to understand what occupancy rate is and why it is critical in housing you can't understand the housing market on its fundamental principles. Other things will impact price up or down short term but that is its fundamental basis

and what you need to know about occupancy rate is that it has fallen for decades and now needs to fall to a figure below 2 for homes to become affordable.

For London what that means is for those hoping for an affordable London you either need 800,000 additional homes or for 1.6 million London residents to vacate London for elsewhere.

The reality is that neither is happening. London population is increasing by about 100,000 a year and it's new build rate is closer to 20k units a year. Rather than the occupancy rate falling in London it is increasing which is almost unheard of in all of British history. The affordable London of the 1970s 1980s 1990s was due to a falling occupancy rate. The unaffordable (less affordable) 2010s is due to a rapidly rising occupancy rate

Crashy_Time

cells wrote: »

I don't know you but I know you aren't half as smart as you think you are

You obviously think you are twice as smart as you actually are :rotfl: and I don`t want to know you.