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Debate House Prices
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Mortgage Lending Rising Again
Comments
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HPC has been going for 10 years - have they never considered plotting their monthly predictions against land reg 3 or 4 months later?
If they had, I guess they wouldn't have predicted 100 of the last 1 house price crashes.....
Confirmation bias is a real problem for groups like that.
People that desperately want to see an outcome tend to try and find selective data to support it, and surround themselves with people who reinforce their views, rather than objectively looking at the facts and listening to countering viewpoints.
It's just human nature.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
i predict a correction, not a crash which started in april
0.10% rise for london in june looks about right, if a little premature
asking prices will fall first, as we have seen0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »If they had, I guess they wouldn't have predicted 100 of the last 1 house price crashes.....
Confirmation bias is a real problem for groups like that.
People that desperately want to see an outcome tend to try and find selective data to support it, and surround themselves with people who reinforce their views, rather than objectively looking at the facts and listening to countering viewpoints.
It's just human nature.
From the outside, it looks to me as if HPC is a cult for losers. Instead of finding a way to progress, they seem to have settled for an unrealistic easy way out (waiting for a crash).Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
chucknorris wrote: »From the outside, it looks to me as if HPC is a cult for losers. Instead of finding a way to progress, they seem to have settled for an unrealistic easy way out (waiting for a crash).
I think that's largely true. Certainly, the speed with which anyone posting views contrary to the norm for that site gets banned suggests thar they're more interested in being a "safe place" for people wanting to bemoan high house prices than they are in promoting genuine debate.0 -
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Thrugelmir wrote: »Gross includes remortgaging so is misleading as an indicator.
Did you miss the net figure I posted? Or the comment from the CML saying the figure represented real growth rather than churn?
Easily missed - next line down from what you posted.0 -
chucknorris wrote: »From the outside, it looks to me as if HPC is a cult for losers. Instead of finding a way to progress, they seem to have settled for an unrealistic easy way out (waiting for a crash).
is HPI a cult for winners?0 -
Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »is HPI a cult for winners?
9 years out of ten usuallyIf I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »is HPI a cult for winners?
HPI isn't a cult, HPC is a website where like minded people gather, so your post doesn't really make sense. If you are asking if everyone that buys wins, obviously the answer is no, because it depends upon the individual circumstances. But in the main people who buy will be better off in the long run than those that rent, if a sensible approach has been taken and all things being equal.Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
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