Mortgage Lending Rising Again

Bubble_and_Squeak

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

I've no idea what you're going on about now

whatever floats your boat, Do you reckon house prices are going to drop nationwide or just in London S.E

the origins of words interests me, thats all

don't know about nationwide
maybe londoners cashing in and buying outside the capital will ripple out

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

the origins of words interests me, thats all

don't know about nationwide
maybe londoners cashing in and buying outside the capital will ripple out

Prices in London tend not to have a huge impact on those on the Wirral peninsula. I expect prices to largely remain the same give or take a bit of noise either way.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

If you look at the 'is London crashing' thread on HPC (started in January) you may note that during June there were many posts pointing out that sellers were reducing prices. Selling prices increased in June.

i only discovered property-bee in may
since then the number of reduction has increased from less than 10% of entries to over 20%
like i said several times before sold price data has a time lag of many months

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i only discovered property-bee in may
since then the number of reduction has increased from less than 10% of entries to over 20%
like i said several times before sold price data has a time lag of many months

The advantage of the long running thread on HPC is that a like for like comparison can be made. Many price reductions were being noted by posters using property bee but selling prices have caught up and they increased.

It might be different this time but your conclusions were being made months ago and never came to pass.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

The advantage of the long running thread on HPC is that a like for like comparison can be made. Many price reductions were being noted by posters using property bee but selling prices have caught up and they increased.

It might be different this time but your conclusions were being made months ago and never came to pass.

i don't fancy to read the whole thread so i'll just assume that that lot have been making the same conclusions for many years

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i don't fancy to read the whole thread so i'll just assume that that lot have been making the same conclusions for many years

Property bee, or the rightmove tool that does similar things, can be useful for a lot of things.

Predicting a crash isn't really one of them.

In any stage of the price cycle there are a lot of houses that start out with a kite flying price and the drop over time to where the market price is.

That happens when actual selling prices are rising, it happens when actual selling prices are falling, and it happens when actual selling prices are stagnant.

In order to predict a crash with any degree of reliability you'd need to see several things happening.... In my opinion at least the majority of the below.....

- Mortgage approvals falling rapidly to a fraction of current levels. For example in late 2008 they were down to circa 20K a month (on the combined BOE series, lower still on the individual CML or BBA series). They're at more like 60k to 70k today, even with MMR.

- Stock per estate agent increasing rapidly, RICS measure this data, it actually fell last month.

- New buyers dropping below new stock adding to the market, this is not the case at the moment, with 9 buyers for every house coming to market, versus 14 a few months ago, it's falling, but it's nowhere near crash levels.

- House price sentiment and consumer confidence decreasing significantly in the polling data - It's down a bit at the moment, but well within the normal fluctuations, certainly not yet looking crashtastic.

- Rapidly rising unemployment - Because the biggest reason by far people fail to meet mortgage payments, leading to repossession and stock increasing, is loss of job leading to significant reduction in household income.

- Mortgage interest rates rising significantly and to inappropriately high levels, for example, the 18% spike preceding the 1990's crash. Granted, it wouldn't take 18% to do it today, but you'd need to be pushing 9% or so even now to get affordability back to those levels. Average mortgage rates today are around 3.5% for comparison.

All of the above are relevant stats for determining the future trajectory of house prices.

They are all related to supply and demand.

None of them currently show the necessary conditions for a crash.

wotsthat

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Mortgage lending rising again

....and again....

Mortgage lending rose to £19.1bn in July to reach the highest monthly total since August 2008.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said the figure was 7% up from June, and 15% higher than July last year.

Caroline Offord, a CML analyst, said that mortgage lending remained robust, despite regulatory changes earlier this year to toughen lending criteria.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28864000

Obviously July doesn't count because it's in the past.

System

Yeah that's only a backward indicator, the only thing that matters is the asking price of 10 properties in Walthamstow.

Bubble_and_Squeak

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Property bee, or the rightmove tool that does similar things, can be useful for a lot of things.

Predicting a crash isn't really one of them.

In any stage of the price cycle there are a lot of houses that start out with a kite flying price and the drop over time to where the market price is.

That happens when actual selling prices are rising, it happens when actual selling prices are falling, and it happens when actual selling prices are stagnant.

In order to predict a crash with any degree of reliability you'd need to see several things happening.... In my opinion at least the majority of the below.....

- Mortgage approvals falling rapidly to a fraction of current levels. For example in late 2008 they were down to circa 20K a month (on the combined BOE series, lower still on the individual CML or BBA series). They're at more like 60k to 70k today, even with MMR.

high percentag of cash buyers in london

- Stock per estate agent increasing rapidly, RICS measure this data, it actually fell last month.

rising since december in london

- New buyers dropping below new stock adding to the market, this is not the case at the moment, with 9 buyers for every house coming to market, versus 14 a few months ago, it's falling, but it's nowhere near crash levels.

if there are 9 buyers for each property why aren't properties selling?

- House price sentiment and consumer confidence decreasing significantly in the polling data - It's down a bit at the moment, but well within the normal fluctuations, certainly not yet looking crashtastic.

i would say sentiment has changed significantly since april

- Rapidly rising unemployment - Because the biggest reason by far people fail to meet mortgage payments, leading to repossession and stock increasing, is loss of job leading to significant reduction in household income.

fair point

- Mortgage interest rates rising significantly and to inappropriately high levels, for example, the 18% spike preceding the 1990's crash. Granted, it wouldn't take 18% to do it today, but you'd need to be pushing 9% or so even now to get affordability back to those levels. Average mortgage rates today are around 3.5% for comparison.

another fair point, though i would say much lower than 9% would be danger zone

All of the above are relevant stats for determining the future trajectory of house prices.

They are all related to supply and demand.

None of them currently show the necessary conditions for a crash.

(yawn) supply and demand again

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

....and again....



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28864000

Obviously July doesn't count because it's in the past.

hahaha you think mortgage lending is enough to prop up the house of cards?
where is the hot money?
and the cash buyer?