'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

wotsthat wrote: »

So if house prices fall there's a good chance mine will too? Thanks for that.

I reject this notion, it's impossible, house prices only ever go up said literally no one ever!!!!!

Jason74

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

I find it impossible to keep up with the London market.
Prices seem to have rocketed in the last year and now they seem to be settling again.

For someone who says they "can't keep up", you have it about right. Prices in my area (the only place I know in this much detail) shot up around 40% in about a year from April / May last year. They stopped rising in any meaningful way in about May, and if anything now appear to be falling back a little.

Certainly inventory is up considerably (about a 50% increase in available stock in the last few Months), and very little is actully selling (in part because some agents / vendors have not yet caught up with the changed market and are still asking silly prices). All of this points to a dramatically slowing market Some of this is of course seasonal, but it's pretty clear that there is more to it than that.

I personally think it's simply that pricing overshot in the frenzy late last year / early this, and is now falling back a little as a pause for breath. I suspect we'll see a fairly static market for a year or so before prices start kicking on again, but I'd be a liar if I said I knew with any real certainty.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Jason74 wrote: »

For someone who says they "can't keep up", you have it about right. Prices in my area (the only place I know in this much detail) shot up around 40% in about a year from April / May last year. They stopped rising in any meaningful way in about May, and if anything now appear to be falling back a little.

Certainly inventory is up considerably (about a 50% increase in available stock in the last few Months), and very little is actully selling. All of this points to a dramatically slowing market Some of this is of course seasonal, but it's pretty clear that there is more to it than that.

I personally think it's simply that pricing overshot in the frenzy late last year / early this, and is now falling back a little as a pause for breath. I suspect we'll see a fairly static market for a year or so before prices start kicking on again, but I'd be a liar if I said I knew with any real certainty.

That sounds absolutely logical to me, when prices are so high and the market so buoyant people are bound to want to cash in. It was probably to soon after the credit crisis and now people are nervous about another drop....sentiment is very important during times like these.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Night all.... Its been an absolute pleasure.

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

It's also true the other way a neighbours house has just sold for £60k above peak so my house is now worth a lot more than I thought.

Yep, that is exactly how it works, that is why the Liar Loan scam worked so well for the bankers...until it didn`t.

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Yep, that is exactly how it works, that is why the Liar Loan scam worked so well for the bankers...until it didn`t.

Liar loan another classic

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Yep, that is exactly how it works, that is why the Liar Loan scam worked so well for the bankers...until it didn`t.

What have other people's mortgage applications got to do with your decision not to buy yourself?

Like mewing it wasn't compulsory.

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

So if house prices fall there's a good chance mine will too? Thanks for that.

Yes, but how it affects you will depend on when and how you bought.


If you bought ago long time the house is just worth a lot less than your grandchildren hoped to inherit, you are probably not giving a monkeys by this point.


If you have a comfortable re-payment mortgage then you have done your duty for the bankers for a couple of decades, and you can...well sit in your house and think that you nearly own it, but it is worth less than you hoped it would be.


If you jumped in anywhere near the peak of the Ponzi, even with cash, you have made the silliest financial decision of your life, and no amount of posting on here is going to make you better.


If you jumped in near the peak and thought you had bought a free cash for life machine, and tried out the machine, you better just jump off the roof now.


And remember, if house prices CRASH there is a good chance yours will too :rotfl:

Jason74

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

That sounds absolutely logical to me, when prices are so high and the market so buoyant people are bound to want to cash in. It was probably to soon after the credit crisis and now people are nervous about another drop....sentiment is very important during times like these.

Yep, my thoughts entirely. My particular area is also very much a secondary / overspill area from a market point of view (although I personally wouldn't want to live anywhere else), which makes prices more volatile. With the rising market, a lot of money was coming in from other areas as people were priced out of their first choice locations.

This has pushed prices up faster than the London average, and I think from memory that the Borough I live in had the 2nd highest HPI in London last year (and my area was the fastest rising part of the Borough). But with the market cooling, a lot ofpeople may find themselves able to affored their first choice areas, or at least to want to hold of in the expectation that they could do so in teh future. If there is a dip, that could see prices in my part of town be a little harder hit than most.

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

Liar loan another classic

Yep. What would you call it?