'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Well happy Saturday chaps, hope you all get to experience what it`s like to be debt free one day. Bye for now.

I'll be debt free when interest rates go up, no way would I pay off my mortgages when the average rate is only 1%. Maybe one day you might experience what it is like be rent (and mortgage) free too.

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Are you saying you HAVE paid that amount in interest, or are you predicting the future for interest rates? How long until you pay back the debt (principle) you owe?

It's here .....again

wotsthat wrote: »

I 'rented' a debt from a building society. Broad brush figures..

- I've been in this house for about the same time as your journey (a bit less)
- Average mortgage rate 4.34%
- I've paid £35,200 'rent' to the bank
- Another £2,600 in interest (and a few years) and I'll own outright
- I'm fixed to just about the end of the term so will be unaffected by rate rises
- This is for a 3 bed detached in the Midlands. Nothing special but would cost, at least, £250/ month more in rent than the mortgage.
- I've paid £9,700 in maintenance in this time.

So, in summary, I'll have paid £47,500 in interest & maintenance (plus the capital of course) and will own 100% of my house. A crash of 100% would still leave me £50k better off buying rather than waiting and hoping.

These are 'standard' calculations and worse case - I stoozed on 0% credit cards for a while and spent quite a few years with £20k offset against the mortgage that was 5.68% at the time. I offset cash savings as well. I didn't think it fair to include these because I withdrew the gains to put towards a holiday home after the crash.

By contrast you've paid £81k over the same time period and own 0% of nothing.

Based on a repayment mortgage with about 5 years left to run. Yes, the calculation for the amount of future interest is based on me predicting interest rates. I've a high degree of confidence to predict interest rates over that period - I've fixed at 2.99% for all of it.

So £47,500 in 'rent' to the bank and maintenance plus, of course, the cost of the house and I own 100% of a house.

If you rent for the next 5 years you'll have paid £105,000 in rent and still own 0% of nothing. Assuming of course Edinburgh rents go a straight 23 years without increasing:)

Rota

mystic_trev wrote: »

Banner's a complete idiot,and got me banned from HPC for asking 'what area in the SE are you, where prices continue to plummet?'

Now I notice this



That from the website that bans anyone bullish on Property!

He is a total douche. I saw that too. If there is a bull posting a counter argument on that site it's done invisibly. :rotfl:

System

Is it just me that thinks a thread started 7 months ago entitled "Is Prime London Crashing?" during which time prices have risen, is NOT something to advertise or be proud of?

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Are you saying you HAVE paid that amount in interest, or are you predicting the future for interest rates? How long until you pay back the debt (principle) you owe?

Just out of interest have you ever looked at a mortgage amortisation table.

robmatic

wotsthat wrote: »

I've a high degree of confidence to predict interest rates over that period - I've fixed at 2.99% for all of it.

You might need to explain this a bit more. Most HPC posters seem to think that a fixed rate mortgage is some sort of ju-ju magic that doesn't exist in real life.

They're sceptical enough about the existence of repayment mortgages.

Rota

robmatic wrote: »

You might need to explain this a bit more. Most HPC posters seem to think that a fixed rate mortgage is some sort of ju-ju magic that doesn't exist in real life.

They're sceptical enough about the existence of repayment mortgages.

Yip, "fixed rate mortgage" could easily be used in sentences with the words "MEW", "Ponzi Scheme","Bankster", "Liar Loans" and "Forbearance"

townendwig

I used to post a bit on HPC and got banned for no apparent reason and have always suspected it was that Bruce Banner who pulled the trigger. From memory I sarcastically and not so subtley hinted that he kept repeating himself and shortly after that I was banned.

Bruce if you're reading this can you unban me please? Username: Wig. I promise I won't type a word the next time you mention how much you've saved by renting vs buying over the past 20 years. It does seem to be a common view on this site in particular that HPC bans anyone who doesn't agree with them, sort of defeats the point of a forum, but I wasn't even ramping house prices over there!! I just had the temerity to joke with Bruce Banner.



I still enjoy reading HPC though because I find it a fantastic source of information with some extremely intelligent and free thinking posters on the forum, who give a credible and informed counter view to the mainstream which I always welcome. Inherently I feel that house prices are at completley unsustainable levels in relation to wages and the long term view worries me for the next generations.



I cannot fathom though, how a site called money saving expert could champion what is essentially, the highest component of the cost of living, going up.
Genuinely perplexed by that one, this whole site is about saving money and bringing your costs down yet the (apparent) dominant view is one of house price ramping. Cheer as I save a few pounds on quidco then cheer as I have to spend another £20k buying a house. Nuts.



For what its worth I'm currently renting a house with wife and young son. Believe it or not this is entirely by choice. I see zero value in the market and am acutely aware the combination of historic low interest rates and historic high prices is a nonsensical mix to buy into. In my opinion.

What do you say Bruce, can we give it another go?

ukcarper

townendwig wrote: »

I used to post a bit on HPC and got banned for no apparent reason and have always suspected it was that Bruce Banner who pulled the trigger. From memory I sarcastically and not so subtley hinted that he kept repeating himself and shortly after that I was banned.

Bruce if you're reading this can you unban me please? Username: Wig. I promise I won't type a word the next time you mention how much you've saved by renting vs buying over the past 20 years. It does seem to be a common view on this site in particular that HPC bans anyone who doesn't agree with them, sort of defeats the point of a forum, but I wasn't even ramping house prices over there!! I just had the temerity to joke with Bruce Banner.



I still enjoy reading HPC though because I find it a fantastic source of information with some extremely intelligent and free thinking posters on the forum, who give a credible and informed counter view to the mainstream which I always welcome. Inherently I feel that house prices are at completley unsustainable levels in relation to wages and the long term view worries me for the next generations.



I cannot fathom though, how a site called money saving expert could champion what is essentially, the highest component of the cost of living, going up.
Genuinely perplexed by that one, this whole site is about saving money and bringing your costs down yet the (apparent) dominant view is one of house price ramping. Cheer as I save a few pounds on quidco then cheer as I have to spend another £20k buying a house. Nuts.



For what its worth I'm currently renting a house with wife and young son. Believe it or not this is entirely by choice. I see zero value in the market and am acutely aware the combination of historic low interest rates and historic high prices is a nonsensical mix to buy into. In my opinion.

What do you say Bruce, can we give it another go?

I'm not sure we are championing HPI( I know I'm not) we are just telling it as we see it.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

townendwig wrote: »

I used to post a bit on HPC and got banned for no apparent reason and have always suspected it was that Bruce Banner who pulled the trigger. From memory I sarcastically and not so subtley hinted that he kept repeating himself and shortly after that I was banned.

Bruce if you're reading this can you unban me please? Username: Wig. I promise I won't type a word the next time you mention how much you've saved by renting vs buying over the past 20 years. It does seem to be a common view on this site in particular that HPC bans anyone who doesn't agree with them, sort of defeats the point of a forum, but I wasn't even ramping house prices over there!! I just had the temerity to joke with Bruce Banner.



I still enjoy reading HPC though because I find it a fantastic source of information with some extremely intelligent and free thinking posters on the forum, who give a credible and informed counter view to the mainstream which I always welcome. Inherently I feel that house prices are at completley unsustainable levels in relation to wages and the long term view worries me for the next generations.



I cannot fathom though, how a site called money saving expert could champion what is essentially, the highest component of the cost of living, going up.
Genuinely perplexed by that one, this whole site is about saving money and bringing your costs down yet the (apparent) dominant view is one of house price ramping. Cheer as I save a few pounds on quidco then cheer as I have to spend another £20k buying a house. Nuts.



For what its worth I'm currently renting a house with wife and young son. Believe it or not this is entirely by choice. I see zero value in the market and am acutely aware the combination of historic low interest rates and historic high prices is a nonsensical mix to buy into. In my opinion.

What do you say Bruce, can we give it another go?

The sooner you buy the more you save. This it seems is lost on you.... I will have paid my mortgage off in 9 years, if you continue to rent for 10 years how much will that have cost you? You could be mortgage and rent free in that time.

If you cant afford a deposit or don't fulfill the lending criteria then I'm sorry. But choosing not to buy in an attempt to time the market is extremely unlikely to yield successful results.