'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

Crashy_Time

padington wrote: »

Well they're not seeing it are they, they're seeing over five decades of decade on decade gains and a recent three year mega win-streak in the south East, an improved economy and now almost every significant pundit bar one predicting more rises next year and considerable gains again predicted over the next five years.

If you bought six months ago in London, have you made money?

padington

Crashy_Time wrote: »

If you bought six months ago in London, have you made money?

Generally - Property costs a fortune to buy and sell so you only ever buy in a view to selling again over a five year period minimum. So if you bought six months ago you would only know if you have made money when you sell it four and half years from here.

Personally - What happened to a neighbour of mine in exactly the same type of house just a couple of streets away in a house worth 300k three years ago currently is selling it and has two offers at 499k with a chance (because the stamp duty has just changed ) might go for a little over 500k now. So selling now seems to have been the wisest move for them.

Truthfully - markets go up and down and there are lucky and unlucky times to buy but the only certainty is that buying will pay its way over the longterm and the only way to benefit from this certainty is to pull the trigger and buy sooner rather than much later.

Imagine you are in a prison in South America and most cells are owned by a big fat greedy prisoner guard who rents them out and some cells can be bought freehold on the open market and more and more prisoners are being imprisoned into the prison and it's getting busier and busier every week. Now consider that if things keep up, even the smallest freehold cells all too soon will cost more than you can afford.

I suggest to you that anyone advising that you wait to try and play the market might not be offering the best advice especially when considering that you, your wife or husband and all your children and their children forever will be locked into this prison for life.

Crashy_Time

padington wrote: »

Generally - Property costs a fortune to buy and sell so you only ever buy in a view to selling again over a five year period minimum. So if you bought six months ago you would only know if you have made money when you sell it four and half years from here.

Personally - What happened to a neighbour of mine in exactly the same type of house just a couple of streets away is that a house worth 300k three years ago currently has two offers at 499k with a chance (because the stamp duty has just changed ) might go for a little over 499k now. So sellong now seems to have been the wisest move for them.

Truthfully - markets go up and down and there are lucky and unlucky times to buy but the only certainty is that buying will pay its way over the longterm and the only way to benefit from this is to pull the trigger and buy sooner rather than much later.

If you borrow to buy you want to be buying at the very bottom IMO. This bubble is unique, there is no historical precedent (except tulips and railways :rotfl:) so when it pops it is gone, there will be no equity withdrawal for those who didn`t get out in time.

padington

Crashy_Time wrote: »

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If you borrow to buy you want to be buying at the very bottom IMO. This bubble is unique, there is no historical precedent (except tulips and railways :rotfl:) so when it pops it is gone, there will be no equity withdrawal for those who didn`t get out in time.

It doesn't matter what the housing markets do, for 25 years you don't have to pay rent and after 25 years you never have to pay anything again.

One day you might get it.

:money:

Crashy_Time

padington wrote: »

It doesn't matter what the housing markets do, for 25 years you don't have to pay rent and after 25 years you never have to pay anything again.

One day you might get it.

:money:

That is 1970`s thinking, it is not credible in todays bubble markets.

ukcarper

padington wrote: »

It doesn't matter what the housing markets do, for 25 years you don't have to pay rent and after 25 years you never have to pay anything again.

One day you might get it.

:money:

He will never get it in the last 5 years I have saved £72,000 in rent and that doesn't include the years my mortgage was much lower than rent.

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

That is 1970`s thinking, it is not credible in todays bubble markets.

You better check what happened to house prices in the 70s.

chucknorris

ukcarper wrote: »

You better check what happened to house prices in the 70s.

LOL absolute classic

padington

Crashy_Time wrote: »

That is 1970`s thinking, it is not credible in todays bubble markets.

Perhaps suggesting property will be cheaper in 25 years time than they are now ?

Dream on my friend, dream on.

Crashy_Time

padington wrote: »

So you're predicting property will be cheaper in 25 years.

Dream on my friend, dream on.

I am predicting that many who bought into this bubble will be bankrupt in less than five years.