'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

Windofchange

I think that this pretty much sums it up. A shade under half a million pounds a few doors up from where I live. Yes. Half a million pounds ladies and gentlemen...

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-47342470.html

If this isn't a bubble, I don't know what is.

lisyloo

But it comes down to why people are paying these prices. To my mind, if you had a crystal ball and could see into the future, and you saw a big crash coming, you wouldn't spend this money. This leads me to believe that the general population expects house prices to go up and up and up forever, like this is a good thing.

I do expect prices in London to go up although I expect rises to moderate considerably.
The reason is that the population and the demand to be in that city will continue to rise beyond the supply.
I don't think there are very many people here from any spectrum of the argument who disagree that London is a special case because of the income from sectors like banking and foreign money.

I just sit there in silent disbelief now.

I hope you have at least considered the possibility you might be wrong before coming to your conclusion. No-one knows what's going to happen and IME those who are wedded to a position can do quite badly.
I'm willing to change my mind and if necessary say I'm wrong, but that's certainly easier if you're not wedded to a position in the first place although I frequently "take a view".

If I had the cash to put down a deposit now, I wouldn't.

So if you won 100 million on the lottery and had a load of mates in Fulham - you wouldn't even consider it?

i.e. a vast amount of people are priced out of property

Well clearly not enough so far to cause prices to come down (until very recently). If we're talking about London there clearly are enough people there to support it.
I'm priced out from a small flat in London and we're in the top 1% of the population salary wise, but there ARE enough people in the world richer than us to price us out.
Is it simply that you cannot accept this?

This leads me to the only logical conclusion that there has to be crash coming as without people coming in at the bottom, how are you going to inflate things forever?

Are you discounting millions of foreign people? The market for London is wider than jsut the UK population.
Why do you think there aren't enough people coming in at the bottom in London. If you went to view a house you'd find youself competing with many others.
Where are you getting your information from? What leads you to believe there aren't enough in London?

Now, it's really about the haves and have nots.

I agree, and I think that's a bad thing.
However what solid arguments or evidence do you have that is cannot continue.

BTW - please don't tarr people's views with their politics or wishes.
I'm someone who believe it's insane/madness/inquitable etc. but still believes it can continue.

A shade under half a million pounds a few doors up from where I live. Yes. Half a million pounds ladies and gentlemen...

So because you think it "madess" you think it cannot contine.
I think you are making a BIG mistake if you are making life changing decisions based on the fact that you do not like the way the world is.
I don't like the way the world is right now. It's become highly inequitable in this country, however I base my financial decisions on logic and I hope you take what I am saying the right way, but your posts come across as if you are basing your view because you just don't like what you see.

TheBlueHorse

there is no crash. there won't be a crash. the crash already happened between 2008-2010.

in London (and surrounding areas) demand massively outweighs supply so a crash won't happen.

The end.

Bubble_and_Squeak

TheBlueHorse wrote: »

there is no crash. there won't be a crash. the crash already happened between 2008-2010.

in London (and surrounding areas) demand massively outweighs supply so a crash won't happen.

The end.

the financial crisis merely disrupted the natural progression of the bubble. credit was cut off before the bubble ran its course.
there will be a crash
there always is a crash after a boom
maybe its happening now
maybe it will be in five years
the only certain thing is that it will happen
i'm of the opinion that if the market is left to its own devices it is happening right now. but, central banks being central banks will try to counter it by printing money. the old kick the problem into the long grass trick. they will succeed in delaying it but you can't put it off forever

Bubble_and_Squeak

Windofchange wrote: »

I think that this pretty much sums it up. A shade under half a million pounds a few doors up from where I live. Yes. Half a million pounds ladies and gentlemen...

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-47342470.html

If this isn't a bubble, I don't know what is.

lisyloo actually believes this is sustainable

Crashy_Time

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

lisyloo actually believes this is sustainable

Probably "hopes" is the more appropriate word :money: :rotfl:

Bubble_and_Squeak

crashy_time wrote: »

probably "hopes" is the more appropriate word :money: :rotfl:

merry christmas crashy!

Crashy_Time

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

merry christmas crashy!

Merry Christmas Bubble!

Crashy_Time

TheBlueHorse wrote: »

there is no crash. there won't be a crash. the crash already happened between 2008-2010.

in London (and surrounding areas) demand massively outweighs supply so a crash won't happen.

The end.

As people see prices falling this "demand" will be nowhere to be seen.

padington

Crashy_Time wrote: »

As people see prices falling this "demand" will be nowhere to be seen.

Well they're not seeing it are they, they're seeing over five decades of decade on decade gains and a recent three year mega win-streak in the south East, an improved economy and now almost every significant pundit bar one predicting more rises next year and considerable gains again predicted over the next five years.