'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

System

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

nice riddle!
doesn't change the fact that houses selling for less today than at the peak

And that irrelevant information has a nothing to do with my post or the direction of sold prices.

Bubble_and_Squeak

AndyGuil wrote: »

No they aren't. Asking prices are more than £100k above current selling prices.

of the 17 entries on rightmove for houses in walthamstow in the last 24 hours
6 have asking prices the same or lower than the last sold at the peak (which i'm saying is march, april, may)
as we'll all agree asking prices are higher than actual sold prices

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30616398.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31496016.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31982223.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31982172.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44431198.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31982220.html

chucknorris

AndyGuil wrote: »

No they aren't. Asking prices are more than £100k above current selling prices.

I would say they are too, but opinion is divided as to when 'peak' actually was. Bubble and Squeak thinks peak was a few months ago:

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

got a link?
i'm taking march, april, may as the peak
most houses that come on for above those prices are cut to below them with a couple of weeks

Whereas most refer to peak as the pre-correction prices of 2007/8

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

asking prices the same or lower than the last sold at the peak (which i'm saying is march, april, may)
as we'll all agree asking prices are higher than actual sold prices

So they slipped a few % after rising even more previously, nothing to get excited about, year on year prices are up, that is what matters.

mystic_trev

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

of the 17 entries on rightmove for houses in walthamstow in the last 24 hours
6 have asking prices the same or lower than the last sold at the peak (which i'm saying is march, april, may)
as we'll all agree asking prices are higher than actual sold prices

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30616398.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31496016.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31982223.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31982172.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44431198.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31982220.html

Bearing in mind Walthamstow prices have gone up 50% to 60% in the last five years, I'm not surprised they're dropping.

ukcarper

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

got a link?
i'm taking march, april, may as the peak
most houses that come on for above those prices are cut to below them with a couple of weeks

I'm not giving you a link to my road, the previous house sold April and another sold a few weeks later. But the point with the new listing is that although it is a detached in the same road it's not the same as the others.

AndyGuil

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

of the 17 entries on rightmove for houses in walthamstow in the last 24 hours
6 have asking prices the same or lower than the last sold at the peak (which i'm saying is march, april, may)
as we'll all agree asking prices are higher than actual sold prices

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30616398.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31496016.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31982223.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31982172.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44431198.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31982220.html

1. Is priced the same as the last sold price on that street and that is the highest of the year.
2. Same as above except this one also says offer over.
3. Is £30k down on a property that has 2 more bedrooms...
4. Is priced the same as the last sold price.
5. Is priced about the same as an end of terrace that sold late last year. End of terrace is worth significantly more without even going into more detail to find other differences.
6. Priced the same as the last sold price on the street.

I'm failing to see your point.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

chucknorris wrote: »

So they slipped a few % after rising even more previously, nothing to get excited about, year on year prices are up, that is what matters.

Exactly.

Property bee, or the rightmove tool that does similar things, can be useful for a lot of things.

Predicting a crash isn't really one of them.

In any stage of the price cycle there are a lot of houses that start out with a kite flying price and the drop over time to where the market price is.

That happens when actual selling prices are rising, it happens when actual selling prices are falling, and it happens when actual selling prices are stagnant.

In order to predict a crash with any degree of reliability you'd need to see several things happening.... In my opinion at least the majority of the below.....

- Mortgage approvals falling rapidly to a fraction of current levels. For example in late 2008 they were down to circa 20K a month (on the combined BOE series, lower still on the individual CML or BBA series). They're at more like 60k to 70k today, even with MMR.

- Stock per estate agent increasing rapidly, RICS measure this data, it actually fell last month.

- New buyers dropping below new stock adding to the market, this is not the case at the moment, with 9 buyers for every house coming to market, versus 14 a few months ago, it's falling, but it's nowhere near crash levels.

- House price sentiment and consumer confidence decreasing significantly in the polling data - It's down a bit at the moment, but well within the normal fluctuations, certainly not yet looking crashtastic.

- Rapidly rising unemployment - Because the biggest reason by far people fail to meet mortgage payments, leading to repossession and stock increasing, is loss of job leading to significant reduction in household income.

- Mortgage interest rates rising significantly and to inappropriately high levels, for example, the 18% spike preceding the 1990's crash. Granted, it wouldn't take 18% to do it today, but you'd need to be pushing 9% or so even now to get affordability back to those levels. Average mortgage rates today are around 3.5% for comparison.

All of the above are relevant stats for determining the future trajectory of house prices.

They are all related to supply and demand.

None of them currently show the necessary conditions for a crash.

ukcarper

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

of the 17 entries on rightmove for houses in walthamstow in the last 24 hours
6 have asking prices the same or lower than the last sold at the peak (which i'm saying is march, april, may)
as we'll all agree asking prices are higher than actual sold prices

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30616398.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31496016.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31982223.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31982172.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44431198.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31982220.html

I've looked at most of those and the houses that sold for more are different from the ones on market now.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH