'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

chucknorris

Blooloo wrote: »

but your life style might well have been a lot worse.

for the money I am paying in rent I have been in 4 bed housing for years...the current one (6th year) has a drive in drive out driveway, 4 very large bedrooms, each as big or bigger than many living areas modern flats have these days, garage, shed and a very nice garden.

Course I could have bought and maybe had some capital gains, but been in a tidly 3 bed semi..

Some might say I am silly at having thrown money away...others are in awe of where we live...clients come in and want to know when we are selling...

so, maybe its costing me a bit..maybe it isnt...but boy, do we live better than people paying a couple of hundred less in their wonderful newbuilds.

It's good that you are happy renting, I would like to think that my tenants are also happy with their choices, rather than feeling trapped.

gallygirl

Blooloo wrote: »

maybe this guy could have paid better heed.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-1649054/The-collapse-of-a-buy-to-let-empire.html

The interweb is full of genii turned bankrupts stories.. maybe HPC could start a west end show with hit songs suitable like CRASH, ooo ooo, the king of the Universe, (Queen).

If it's so full of stories - how come that one is over 5 years old? Like Chuck said, anyone overstretching themselves in an unknown business is likely to come a cropper. But for every failed large empire there are 100's of smaller btl businesses ticking along quite nicely, with low leverage or no borrowing at all making house prices largely irrelevant on a day to day basis.

I timed the market right in 2008 and sold 2 properties when the prices being paid for similar ones made me laugh (not boasting - I used the proceeds to buy a place in Spain at the top of their market :rotfl:). The prices for similar now are marginally higher - but seem more 'reasonable' now as my town is much more prosperous than it was then. They may be plateauing or dropping a little but I don't see any signs of impending doom like there was before with the wider economy.

Blooloo

chucknorris wrote: »

It's good that you are happy renting, I would like to think that my tenants are also happy with their choices, rather than feeling trapped.

If I could buy the place, I would.

I dont have that choice.

I wouldnt buy a tiny tiny newbuild with much the same in repayments.

wotsthat

Blooloo wrote: »

i havent advised anyone to rent or to buy.

I have said the equation isnt right or wrong whichever way you decide except with 2020 hindsight.

I agree there is a shortage, but it is not the shortage proposed here.

A shortage of housing?>..how many re sold every month these days, shall we say 60,000?>..Find your dream property right here, right now. Rightmove has over 800,000 properties for sale throughout the UK< from the rightmove website today...I reckon thats 13 months stock.

The shortage, as I see it is in people wanting to buy but unable to finance the mortgage to support todays prices.

Shoot me for suggesting McT is wrong. Shoot me for suggesting the Government also knows this and has done 110% to keep the monthlies low. Shoot me if I beleive this wont go on forever.

And when they stop...which they have to...where does that leave the leveraged investors?

I never wanted any of this distortion to happen, as at the end of the day, a failed BTL is an evicted tenant, just as an overstretched borrower is ultimately the same.

just saying.

I'm clearly under thinking this because I don't know what you're saying. It seems to be that whether you buy or rent bad things might happen.

I sweat the small stuff - the position of leveraged investors isn't under my control and doesn't influence my day to day decisions.

I am one of the sheeple though.

Blooloo

gallygirl wrote: »

If it's so full of stories - how come that one is over 5 years old? Like Chuck said, anyone overstretching themselves in an unknown business is likely to come a cropper. But for every failed large empire there are 100's of smaller btl businesses ticking along quite nicely, with low leverage or no borrowing at all making house prices largely irrelevant on a day to day basis.

I timed the market right in 2008 and sold 2 properties when the prices being paid for similar ones made me laugh (not boasting - I used the proceeds to buy a place in Spain at the top of their market :rotfl:). The prices for similar now are marginally higher - but seem more 'reasonable' now as my town is much more prosperous than it was then. They may be plateauing or dropping a little but I don't see any signs of impending doom like there was before with the wider economy.

It doesnt take Doom to takeout the overleveraged.

As for the overleveraged at that time of the article...he was fully backed by the financiers at the time...financiers who are continuing to support a market based on affordability...except, it would appear, in the "industry" being touted here.

Blooloo

wotsthat wrote: »

I'm clearly under thinking this because I don't know what you're saying. It seems to be that whether you buy or rent bad things might happen.

I sweat the small stuff - the position of leveraged investors isn't under my control and doesn't influence my day to day decisions.

I am one of the sheeple though.

yet you insist that others take on the leveraged position as the only and right course.

Underthinking?...

luvpump

It was inevitable this would happen sooner or later Jobs, good jobs, are hard to come by, I haven't had a pay rise for 5 yrs
There is only so much the Government can do to artificially increase house prices & lets face it, the only thing we are good at in the u.k on a macro scale, is selling real estate to each other at ever more ridiculous prices . But i dont think there will be a Crash more of a stagnation or possibly a smallish reversal

Blooloo

gallygirl wrote: »

If it's so full of stories - how come that one is over 5 years old? Like Chuck said, anyone overstretching themselves in an unknown business is likely to come a cropper. But for every failed large empire there are 100's of smaller btl businesses ticking along quite nicely, with low leverage or no borrowing at all making house prices largely irrelevant on a day to day basis.

I timed the market right in 2008 and sold 2 properties when the prices being paid for similar ones made me laugh (not boasting - I used the proceeds to buy a place in Spain at the top of their market :rotfl:). The prices for similar now are marginally higher - but seem more 'reasonable' now as my town is much more prosperous than it was then. They may be plateauing or dropping a little but I don't see any signs of impending doom like there was before with the wider economy.

heres one from 2014...http://labussoladoro.eu/westlifes-shane-filan-loses-his-property-empire-and-declares-himself-bankrupt/

and another

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/bankrupt-tycoons-estate-for-sale.23486958

Im sure most dont come up in all searches, and bankers wont want to tout them too much as they will affect the sales of the "empires"

None of them went bankrupt by owning outright. they all went when the borrowing got too confident and the wind changed. Its a story as old a mankind.

I just hope it happens to none here...especially the boasters, as I have personally met these people, and seen some kill themselves when they cant face the shame of their loss of face, reputation, purchasing power and sometimes their loved ones. caution and acceptnce of failure is a possibility that should be considered, specially amongst those with a modicum of soul. exclude politicians and bankers from these effects of course.

mystic_trev

The fact is the HPC site has now been going of over 10 years. I wonder what has happened to House prices during that time? I bought my first Home in 1982 for £34,000 - that house would now cost around £400k. I now own 5 properties, all paid for, and actually they represent the smaller part of my Investments, the main part being my Equity Portfolio.

I retired at the age of 42 - 18 years ago. If I'd 'stuck my head in the sand' with my Investment strategy, I'd still be working now. At the rate the HPC Cult are going, they'll all be retired by the time they can get to buying a House they then won't be able to afford to buy.

observingthedebate

Just asking a stupid question, as I am reading through.

How do you define being over-leveraged? I mean this surely captures a wide range of positions surely?