'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

wotsthat

Blooloo wrote: »

there are no maths in an opinion.

people denegrating the other site do so by assigning a mind set that is seen as negative. I dont know what is negative about wanting my kids to buy a house..

sometimes bulls are right, other times bears are right..neither is right all the time.

I use maths and data to form an opinion - how do you do it?

I've not spent much time on HPC. I've only been on it lately because Crashy introduced himself and I'm recovering from a stress fracture so I have a lot more spare time. The impression I've formed is that a number of the posters (not all) just want a crash and don't much care about the effects as long as they get a cheap house. Wanting a crash 'for the children' is often a clumsy way of saying 'I want a cheap house and high morals are on my side' - please note I'm not saying that's your position.

I couldn't care less about bulls and bears other than engaging in fun arguments on the internet.

Blooloo

chucknorris wrote: »

When it comes to financial decisions, I have no opinion until I have done the maths, and analysed the potential gains and losses and also the amount of risk that I consider that I would be taking on, weighed up against the potential gain.

no, you dont do the maths until you imagine some "what if? " scenarios, then you guess on a variable and use a variable to calculate your possible position.

The trouble with calculating with a number of variables is the range of possible answers. The decision to go one way or the other is based on how you think other players in the chosen arenas will react. and there is no maths to describe the interaction of all the players..Its all a guess.. Some guess lucky. others dont.

But, as nobody knows the outcome, your own personal result is the result of luck.

Now, if were an investor in property in leeds, where would you be today?...or any other town in the UK...Londoners today have been lucky to ride the boom...as per the thread, there is an opinion out there that that is about to end and your scenario this time next year may see people rich today, in Bankruptcy next year.

Or they could be fabulously wealthy

Nobody knows. But dont talk about failure, that will be the cause of it..to me, that shows insecurity in the individual afraid to venture there...ignore that possibility and it will simply go away.

Blooloo

wotsthat wrote: »

I use maths and data to form an opinion - how do you do it?

I've not spent much time on HPC. I've only been on it lately because Crashy introduced himself and I'm recovering from a stress fracture so I have a lot more spare time. The impression I've formed is that a number of the posters (not all) just want a crash and don't much care about the effects as long as they get a cheap house. Wanting a crash 'for the children' is often a clumsy way of saying 'I want a cheap house and high morals are on my side' - please note I'm not saying that's your position.

I couldn't care less about bulls and bears other than engaging in fun arguments on the internet.

hey, im injured too!

chucknorris

Blooloo wrote: »

no, you dont do the maths until you imagine some "what if? " scenarios, then you guess on a variable and use a variable to calculate your possible position.

The trouble with calculating with a number of variables is the range of possible answers. The decision to go one way or the other is based on how you think other players in the chosen arenas will react. and there is no maths to describe the interaction of all the players..Its all a guess.. Some guess lucky. others dont.

But, as nobody knows the outcome, your own personal result is the result of luck.

Now, if were an investor in property in leeds, where would you be today?...or any other town in the UK...Londoners today have been lucky to ride the boom...as per the thread, there is an opinion out there that that is about to end and your scenario this time next year may see people rich today, in Bankruptcy next year.

Or they could be fabulously wealthy

Nobody knows. But dont talk about failure, that will be the cause of it..to me, that shows insecurity in the individual afraid to venture there...ignore that possibility and it will simply go away.

Sorry, but I definitely do do the maths, and apply probability to provide numbers in scenarios with an uncertain outcome. Exactly like I did in industry when preparing cost plans (I'm a chartered quantity surveyor) for construction projects years into the future, of course the predicted costs would not be 100% accurate, but they would be within an acceptable error range.

Blooloo

chucknorris wrote: »

Sorry, but I definitely do do the maths, and apply probability to provide numbers in scenarios with an uncertain outcome. Exactly like I did in industry when preparing cost plans (I'm a chartered quantity surveyor) for construction projects years into the future, of course the predicted costs would not be 100% accurate, but they would be within an acceptable error range.

thats clearly why everyone else is failing..they use the same math and guess differently.

Sadly, the winners tend to think they are clever. Some come onto a web site like this and BLAME others who havent had the luck for not doing it too.

Ive met "winners" too...in the dot com bubble, I knew a few who happened to be in the right place at the right time and made extreme money...one retired and is now back at work...another set up a series of software companies...interviewed me but I didnt like his BS...he was well into how he was a star in this internet company, talking about burn rate ratios and how to pick winners.

Indeed, I was a winner in the 1980s.

He went bust, lost his fortune and his house ( a mate of mine worked for him and lost several months wages)

This attitude is disgusting, and its been displayed up thread.

chucknorris

Blooloo wrote: »

thats clearly why everyone else is failing..they use the same math and guess differently.

Sadly, the winners tend to think they are clever. Some come onto a web site like this and BLAME others who havent had the luck for not doing it too.

Ive met "winners" too...in the dot com bubble, I knew a few who happened to be in the right place at the right time and made extreme money...one retired and is now back at work...another set up a series of software companies...interviewed me but I didnt like his BS...he was well into how he was a star in this internet company, talking about burn rate ratios and how to pick winners.

Indeed, I was a winner in the 1980s.

He went bust, lost his fortune and his house ( a mate of mine worked for him and lost several months wages)

This attitude is disgusting, and its been displayed up thread.

There is a difference between estimating (which is a profession in itself in the construction industry) and guessing, I didn't get paid £70k a year in industry just to 'guess'.


I won't be going bust like the person that you mention above because I am currently diversifying to spread and also reduce the risk of this occuring. In the last few years we have ensured that our joint (mine will be about £22k) pension income will be about £35k. I have also invested in tracker funds (not individual shares which carry much more risk), these will provide about £35k of dividend income in retirement. I haven't yet invested in bonds (lower risk than shares) but that will be my next venture (this will reduce the dividend income, but also reduce the risk). Our rental income is about £115k although that will reduce to about £85k if the base rate returns to 5.5%. In addition to that because we don't have children we will be drawing down about £100k a year from our assets (this will of course be tax free as I have already estimated and deducted the CGT when valuing our assets).


So even if there is a huge correction which affects the above income (but not most of the pension income which is DB) we will still be comfortable.

Philuk

wotsthat wrote: »

I started taking my own advice a long time ago after, I felt, I'd been duped by paid for 'advisors' aka sales people. This site and the forums have really helped. What I like about about taking responsibility for myself is that it focuses the mind - there's no-one else to blame!

I thought briefly about selling in 2006 and renting for a while. It was obvious something was up. I didn't because my wife thought it was a stupid idea, the kids were in decent schools and we like the house. As it turns out it would have been a stupid idea - however I would only have myself to blame. That's why I don't post on HPC it's just an elaborate blame culture set up to convince people they were/ are correct when all evidence points in the opposite direction.

(...)

In a strange way when I see the usual suspects talking about the next leg down being the big one I hope they're right. Problem for the usual suspects is they've spent so long waiting they've forgotten what they're waiting for and don't know what to do when it arrives.

You are talking through your own prism. Your generation have had a real choice whether they wanted to buy or rent. Most of my entourage is in their late 20s early 30s and we all started working in 2007-8, the world then divides between those with a family deposit usually in the bracket 100k-250k (thanks to generous old boomers like you) and the others who have to build their own (and repay student loan of 15-30k). Since 2011, the average flat price increases by 40k requiring an additional salary of 10-15k a year, for most it means buying is a vanishing target. Result is that most of my friends are still living with mum & dad, or renting, few lucky ones bought 40% equity thanks to their family deposit and stretch their finances to breaking point to borrow the rest as they still don't earn much. There is nothing argumentative or opinionated about not buying, for most it is the only option.

chucknorris

Philuk wrote: »

You are talking through your own prism. Your generation have had a real choice whether they wanted to buy or rent. Most of my entourage is in their late 20s early 30s and we all started working in 2007-8, the world then divides between those with a family deposit usually in the bracket 100k-250k (thanks to generous old boomers like you) and the others who have to build their own (and repay student loan of 15-30k). Since 2011, the average flat price increases by 40k requiring an additional salary of 10-15k a year, for most it means buying is a vanishing target. Result is that most of my friends are still living with mum & dad, or renting, few lucky ones bought 40% equity thanks to their family deposit and stretch their finances to breaking point to borrow the rest as they still don't earn much. There is nothing argumentative or opinionated about not buying, for most it is the only option.

His comments must be taken in context, they were originally aimed at crashy who STR and chose to not buy back into the market. I have a lot of sympathy for those starting out and I have seen others say it too.

Philuk

chucknorris wrote: »

His comments must be taken in context, they were originally aimed at crashy who STR and chose to not buy back into the market. I have a lot of sympathy for those starting out and I have seen others say it too.

My apologies then, I have to say this thread is particularly active!

mystic_trev

chucknorris wrote: »

His comments must be taken in context, they were originally aimed at crashy who STR and chose to not buy back into the market. I have a lot of sympathy for those starting out and I have seen others say it too.

Indeed, it is certainly a lot more difficult for first time buyers than when I bought my first home in 1982.

The trouble with the HPC lot, is they've become fanatics and won't accept that House prices have gone up. They've become the Flat Earth society of the modern era. Take that fella Jonathan Davis was it really such a good idea making himself look like a complete clown to the media? I believe he's still renting in the Suburbs, no doubt telling everyone his rent hasn't gone up for the last ten years:rotfl: We don't seem to see much of him these days, perhaps he's gone to join the Circus!