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'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness
Comments
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Anyway, is there anyone here who would like to discuss the thread topic, or would you all like to reflect on why another website banned you, or do you all just want to gloat about capital gains you say you have had...stuff better suited to sales leaflets.
Happy to oblige. For me, the market can be roughly split into two parts, although this is of course a bit of an oversimplification. You have the London market, and there is the rest of the UK. The two are very different animals.
In London, we are imho at or close to a peak for now, particularly in more secondary areas. Prices have gone up so far, so fast that buyers are now getting wary and backing off, and a lot of non occupying owners (eg BTL etc, of which there are loads in London) are seeing it as a good time to cash in.This is reducing demand and increasing supply at the same time. This is putting a rapid brake on the market, and broad stagnation with possible small falls is the most likely outcome in the next 12-18 Months.
However, this is unlikely to cause a major crash. The issue imho is simply that the market has overshot a little. It wont take prices to fall back much before buyers come back "for a bargain" and / or sellers decide the margins no longer justify selling. As such, prices are likely to not go anywhere much for a while. The caveat is that there is a possibility that a downward momentum could take hold particularly if an outside event causes foreign owners in London to withdraw. I think this is unlikely, but it's certainly a possibility imho.
For the rest of the UK, I think that price rises will accelerate for the next couple of years. There hasn't been anything like London levels of silly HPI in most places outside the capital, and the market generally is a lot less speculativ.I think given the current improving (if fragile) economic environment, it would take a major economic shock (I'm thinking on the scale of all out war in Ukraine cutting off the gas) to derail that process . And in that kind of scenario, the value of houses will be the least of anybody's worries.0 -
Tax implications of taking divis rather than salary?>..never heard about it before...and if I read the posters position properly, the tax situation is nothing to do with buying..its to do with selling an asset and using the saved money to keep his drawings below the tax threshold.
It has got something to do with buying because if you don't buy you won't have an asset to sell. This really ought to be bleeding obvious. - ask Crashy how much he'd make by selling an asset he owns 0% of despite paying enough in rent to own more than 100% of it.
I've never had a login for HPC. I don't like the negativity.0 -
Seems reasonable to me but I would be inclined to include parts of the south east in with LondonHappy to oblige. For me, the market can be roughly split into two parts, although this is of course a bit of an oversimplification. You have the London market, and there is the rest of the UK. The two are very different animals.
In London, we are imho at or close to a peak for now, particularly in more secondary areas. Prices have gone up so far, so fast that buyers are now getting wary and backing off, and a lot of non occupying owners (eg BTL etc, of which there are loads in London) are seeing it as a good time to cash in.This is reducing demand and increasing supply at the same time. This is putting a rapid brake on the market, and broad stagnation with possible small falls is the most likely outcome in the next 12-18 Months.
However, this is unlikely to cause a major crash. The issue imho is simply that the market has overshot a little. It wont take prices to fall back much before buyers come back "for a bargain" and / or sellers decide the margins no longer justify selling. As such, prices are likely to not go anywhere much for a while. The caveat is that there is a possibility that a downward momentum could take hold particularly if an outside event causes foreign owners in London to withdraw. I think this is unlikely, but it's certainly a possibility imho.
For the rest of the UK, I think that price rises will accelerate for the next couple of years. There hasn't been anything like London levels of silly HPI in most places outside the capital, and the market generally is a lot less speculativ.I think given the current improving (if fragile) economic environment, it would take a major economic shock (I'm thinking on the scale of all out war in Ukraine cutting off the gas) to derail that process . And in that kind of scenario, the value of houses will be the least of anybody's worries.0 -
The point you're carefully avoiding is that renting doesn't give one the opportunity to downsize and release cash. Yes the rent might reduce but that just means compounding is working against you slightly more slowly.
You clearly didn't understand the tax implications so I won't mention them again.
Yes I think he overlooked the point that the gains are tax free. It is very important to consider the tax implications of your finances, we were looking at the tax advantages that the Isle of Man offers a couple of weeks ago, but then we realised that the chancellor is about to close the capital gains tax advantage in next year's budget (on investment property). The weather isn't that great there, but we plan to winter abroad anyway and we could have extended that by a couple of months, but I don't think that the income tax saving of about £16k a year to us would be worth the upheaval, the capital gains tax savings however would have been significant. The details of the proposed changes have not yet been published, but I'm not optimistic, I am however keen to see what they are, in particular how gains prior to 2015 will be treated.Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
The HPC brigade are living in a parallel universe.
I've monitored it from afar and whilst they "wish" for a crash the reality is that supply vs demand plus government meddling is and will continue to keep prices firm to middling.
Their "house prices only ever go up" sarcastic retort eyes up mantra is laughable. Reason being that if one plots a graph from say 1970 to now, whilst there are notable peaks and troughs ultimately the line is ascending.
I think the reality is that the HPC'ers are simply sickened by human behaviour and its fervent unstoppable greed. Perhaps the worst case of this is the vile Wilsons.
HPC unfortunately are a minority who think the world should be fair and housing 3 x the average wage. Well the world isn't fair and 99% of Joe Public are infatuated by HPI and it is now firmly rooted in the psyche of UK PLC.
If the Chinese/Russians/Saudi's get scared and dump their zone 1/2 stock it indeed could cause a crash of sorts. But why would they? They own prime estate in Londump and own it outright. The government has sold its electorate down the river (huge immigration into the S/E) and unfortunately it's every man for himself. I'd like the UK to revert to the charming setting of an Ealing comedy with plod and their big feet but the reality is who's the next member of the public to have his/her head removed without their permission?!
I would never post on HPC as there are some very angry people on there. I weighed up all angles and due to personal circumstances mid last year had no choice but to convert my house into a BTL. I simply had to get out and sharpish. It makes a sensible return and got me out of a tight spot. I had then some modest re-geared equity plus saved funds so pooled my resources and purchased a flat in West London zone 2. I could afford it so I did. Both properties have gone up considerably on paper and I have a slush fund should anything occur. Whilst I obviously would prefer not to see a HPC (can't see how that could occur per above) I couldn't care less as my house needs to fall by 40% and my flat 60%
I understand HPC's sentiment but they are an absurd minority living in their own world aghast at what is occurring. I subscribe to their angle but the reality is that your average bloke in the street simply wants a "gaf" and will graft and take on huge debt to have a roof over their head. Mr Average thinks renting is dead money and ultimately where is he going to live when he retires? Cap in hand to the council?!
HPC would eat me alive for my actions but I actually thank them for their insight. I have taken a calculated risk after taking all scenarios into account and am happy to see where it leads long term..0 -
The HPC brigade are living in a parallel universe.
I've monitored it from afar and whilst they "wish" for a crash the reality is that supply vs demand plus government meddling is and will continue to keep prices firm to middling.
Their "house prices only ever go up" sarcastic retort eyes up mantra is laughable. Reason being that if one plots a graph from say 1970 to now, whilst there are notable peaks and troughs ultimately the line is ascending.
I think the reality is that the HPC'ers are simply sickened by human behaviour and its fervent unstoppable greed. Perhaps the worst case of this is the vile Wilsons.
HPC unfortunately are a minority who think the world should be fair and housing 3 x the average wage. Well the world isn't fair and 99% of Joe Public are infatuated by HPI and it is now firmly rooted in the psyche of UK PLC.
If the Chinese/Russians/Saudi's get scared and dump their zone 1/2 stock it indeed could cause a crash of sorts. But why would they? They own prime estate in Londump and own it outright. The government has sold its electorate down the river (huge immigration into the S/E) and unfortunately it's every man for himself. I'd like the UK to revert to the charming setting of an Ealing comedy with plod and their big feet but the reality is who's the next member of the public to have his/her head removed without their permission?!
I would never post on HPC as there are some very angry people on there. I weighed up all angles and due to personal circumstances mid last year had no choice but to convert my house into a BTL. I simply had to get out and sharpish. It makes all but no return but got me out of a tight spot. I had then some modest re-geared equity plus saved funds so pooled my resources and purchased a flat in West London zone 2. I could afford it so I did. Both properties have gone up considerably on paper and I have a slush fund should anything occur. Whilst I obviously would prefer not to see a HPC (can't see how that could occur per above) I couldn't care less as my house needs to fall by 40% and my flat 60%
I understand HPC's sentiment but they are an absurd minority living in their own world aghast at what is occurring. I subscribe to their angle but the reality is that your average bloke in the street simply wants a "gaf" and will graft and take on huge debt to have a roof over their head. Mr Average thinks renting is dead money and ultimately where is he going to live when he retires? Cap in hand to the council?!
HPC would eat me alive for my actions but I actually thank them for their insight. I have taken a calculated risk after taking all scenarios into account and am happy to see where it leads long term..
Awesome first post, welcome to the debate. :beer:
What concerns me about that site is how many young people, that could afford subscribe to their warped logic simply because they are too young to know better. I so very nearly got sucked into it. I'd be so far behind the curve if Id listened to that site, so pleased I didn't.
It's good to get a balanced view of what's going on, lets be honest, anything bad in the economy is posted there - how that plays out if a decision you take with your judgement...... not theirs.
Where is your flat in West London? I'm in the Chiswick/Acton area.0 -
I have to say, the one thing I've never got is why anyone would STR. If you just want a nice home, and have worked hard to get to the point where you have one, why on earth would you risk losing that foothold. Leaving aside the obvious financial risks, why would anyone put themselves through the stress of moving at least twice, and losing the sense of permenance that goes with a secure home. I just don't get it, but then I'm the kind of simpleton who really does see my property overwhelmingly as somewhere nice to live, so I'm obviously missing something
Its the ultimate trade in conviction, no hedge, just 100% belief that you are right. Hey, if you are getting a 40% discount who cares if you move twice? You have saved so much money you are laughing while you do it!
On the flip side, get it wrong and you end up posting drivel with other like minded people, while paying off your landlords mortgage forever.0 -
Awesome first post, welcome to the debate. :beer:
What concerns me about that site is how many young people, that could afford subscribe to their warped logic simply because they are too young to know better. I so very nearly got sucked into it. I'd be so far behind the curve if Id listened to that site, so pleased I didn't.
It's good to get a balanced view of what's going on, lets be honest, anything bad in the economy is posted there - how that plays out if a decision you take with your judgement...... not theirs.
Where is your flat in West London? I'm in the Chiswick/Acton area.
Thank you very much!
Yes HPC is a very downbeat negative site. But the information is very useful if you see past the individuals who long for a fairer world.
I'm into classic cars and if you think the housing market has gone insane see the prices of rare 911's or say 60's Astons/Ferraris. I did post there once some time ago and got the the usual dose of vitriol and poison. Some wise guy compared that market to the tulip bubble. They're not making anymore Bugatti Type 35's so what tosh! its a finite market!
I bought in W11 Notting Hill. On paper i'm 1/4 mil up so as you I listened but chose another path....0 -
They're not making many houses either!Thank you very much!
Yes HPC is a very downbeat negative site. But the information is very useful if you see past the individuals who long for a fairer world.
I'm into classic cars and if you think the housing market has gone insane see the prices of rare 911's or say 60's Astons/Ferraris. I did post there once some time ago and got the the usual dose of vitriol and poison. Some wise guy compared that market to the tulip bubble. They're not making anymore Bugatti Type 35's so what tosh! its a finite market!
I bought in W11 Notting Hill. On paper i'm 1/4 mil up so as you I listened but chose another path....0 -
They're not making many houses either!
Noted but the option is there. As I said, the government are traitor vermin with their own VI. They have no interest in the common mans welfare. The UK is going down the pan via the aspects I seek for a happy life. Growth growth growth is not what I want. At all costs. Borrow borrow borrow. Stealing from the future leaving obscene debt. Reality vs fantasy. HPC live in fantasy. I prefer brutal hard fact reality. It's a rigged game.
You can't buy a new 60's sports Rolex or Warhol!
I'm under no illusion. The housing market could implode. But then again in my HPC informed opinion I think not.
It's interesting to observe their world as I look into their murky goldfish bowl.0
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