'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

Blooloo

Rota wrote: »

Dances with Sheeple is and forever will be, till his dying day, a mug, you would have to be one not to see it.

so its your job to keep telling him and the world about this person youve never met, dont know if he is a wind up merchant, and then tell everyone else that buying is the only way.

perhaps you should tell chucknorris, who is reducing his exposure that he is a mug too?

ukcarper

Blooloo wrote: »

there you go again...with 2020 hindsight you have the wisdom he didnt. and now cant he even see how clever everyone else was.

I think you should have worked for the banks, you could clearly have predicted and avoided the banking collapse that we are all now paying for.

There was no need for 20/20 hindsight the figures to show his mistake didn't include HPI just the cost of buying at the time to cost of renting. the property he bought could have been worth 0 now.

chucknorris

Blooloo wrote: »

By predicting, you mean guessing...

My client, also an estimator, puts in his estimates for the costs of building, then the client is advised to double it...He accepts this as part and parcel as future costs are entirely guesswork.

If he accepts that his estimates are 'entirely guesswork' then he isn't a particularly good estimator.


You are talking absolute rubbish now and starting to look foolish, you are obviously way out of your comfort zone here. I can tell you for a fact that no estimator would be 100% out, not even a bad one. You certainly wouldn't hire one and then double his estimate.

chucknorris

Blooloo wrote: »

perhaps you should tell chucknorris, who is reducing his exposure that he is a mug too?

Unlike you, he knows the difference between where we both are in life. There is a time to take on risk and there is a time to consolidate your wealth.

Blooloo

chucknorris wrote: »

If he accepts that his estimates are 'entirely guesswork' then he isn't a particularly good estimator.


You are talking absolute rubbish now and starting to look foolish, you are obviously way out of your comfort zone here. I can tell you for a fact that no estimator would be 100% out, not even a bad one. You certainly wouldn't hire one and then double his estimate.

An estimate is a rough indication of price, length, scope, potential pitfalls and any other number of guesses.

Some people love to dress up a guess as a fancy word..estimate is one, I estimate for my customers too, they know its a guide but the bill, the length of time, the end result, are all open to change from the estimated target.

Others call them theories...we see them all the time form Einstine to Krugman, people producing a reasonable hypothesis from known factors and making a theory around them...a guess. Science will then take the theory and see if it fits.

Sorry, but using flowery words to belittle a point of view is cowardly.
ESTIMATE dictionary
roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of.
"the aim is to estimate the effects of macroeconomic policy on the economy"
synonyms:roughly calculate, approximate, make an estimate of, guess, evaluate, judge, gauge, reckon, rate, appraise, form an opinion of, form an impression of, get the measure of, determine, weigh up; More

wotsthat

Blooloo wrote: »

there you go again...with 2020 hindsight you have the wisdom he didnt. and now cant he even see how clever everyone else was.

That's right. What difference do life choices make? It's all in the flip of a coin.

Blooloo wrote: »

I think you should have worked for the banks, you could clearly have predicted and avoided the banking collapse that we are all now paying for.

I've never had much confidence in my skills to predict the future. That's why when it came to a choice between renting and buying I went for the option that virtually guaranteed home ownership.

chucknorris

Blooloo wrote: »

An estimate is a rough indication of price,

I don't think you know what an estimator (in the construction industry) does if you think this! An estimator will price up a tender (usually prepared by a QS like myself) and then the OHP (overheads and profit) will be added during the tender adjudication meeting. Now the OHP will vary depending upon the cost of the project. Let's assume a £5m project, in this market I would anticipate about a 4-5% mark up for OHP. A significant part of the estimator's estimate will contain known costs such as prices from sub-contractors.


When the building contractor submits his tender and it is accepted he has entered into a contractual agreement to build the project for that sum of money. Are you seriously suggesting that he would commit to a price that based upon 'a rough indication of price'? Of course he wouldn't, you have just demonstrated that you don't know what you are talking about.

wotsthat

Blooloo wrote: »

Indeed, good luck with your search..as you rightly point out, if you need a mortgage, paying it is the biggest headache for the future...if you are sweating over the value, then maybe now isnt a good time to buy. or maybe it is.

Who knows.

If paying a mortgage is the biggest headache for the future then isn't paying rent of mortgage +30% an even bigger headache?

Blooloo

wotsthat wrote: »

That's right. What difference do life choices make? It's all in the flip of a coin.



I've never had much confidence in my skills to predict the future. That's why when it came to a choice between renting and buying I went for the option that virtually guaranteed home ownership.

your logic astounds...you bought so that you could guarantee ownership...amazing insight.

Glad its worked out for you.

I have no idea on whether you guys are correct about dances with sheeples timings, dates, costings, decisions.

none of that has anything to do with the London Market tomorrow.

blahblahblah85

Ahhh STR...this is what the family who sold us our flat did, 2 years later they can't get back into the market and are waiting for a even more substantial crash. Why a family with only 1 home and not that much in savings or earning will take such a big risk I do not know!
Oh and this was not in the UK either, there is a housepricecrash equivalent website for every country I think :P