The Economics of Ebola

michaels

How contagious are people during the incubation phase - I feel a small excel model needs to be built.....

chewmylegoff

It's not particularly contagious as evidenced by the fact that the current outbreak has been going on since February and there have only been 1,000 or so cases. Granted there are probably a lot of cases which have gone unidentified but we're not looking at something which can pass from person to person in the same way that flu or the common cold can.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

michaels wrote: »

How contagious are people during the incubation phase -

Not as contagious as they are during the symptom stage.

It requires close physical contact with bodily fluids to spread, but this can include sweat, so in theory if you shake hands with someone with sweaty palms and then touch your face or rub your eyes for example it can lead to infection.

Obviously that's not a common transmission route, but it's possible.

The far more dangerous part is when people show symptoms and start profusely expelling bodily fluids....

It's why the worst affected are usually health workers and family members of the infected.

If you had to pick a deadly disease to have loose in the population, ebola isn't the worst by far, precisely because the ways it can spread are limited.

So although the mortality rate for ebola is horrifically high, there are other diseases with lower mortality rates but that are more easily spread that could potentially cause greater numbers of fatalities.

Thrugelmir

Bean_Counter wrote: »

My work colleague was at Lagos airport at the same time and is due back tomorrow. Should I shake his hand when I see him? If no further posts are made, you know why.

Requires the passing of bodily fluids. So just don't kiss him when you meet. :eek:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Requires the passing of bodily fluids. So just don't kiss him when you meet. :eek:

Or shake his hand if he's sweating.....;)

neverdespairgirl

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The current outbreak however has now killed over 660 people and spread to several major cities, including Lagos in Nigeria, and appears to be beyond practical attempts to quarantine it effectively.

The precise figures being given of people infected and dead from this outbreak are ridiculous, don't you think?

It's really clear that the health services are being kept at arm's length by many of the people involved, so the truth is that they've no idea really how many people have died. They know of 660 (or whatever it is now) deaths that have been caused by Ebola, not that it's 660 in total.

vivatifosi

On the news this week there was a plane arriving from Nigeria at an airport in China. They were able to use a scanner to scan the entire passenger load for temperature and pull them out to quarantine. I think this is something they also used for SARS. I bet they do the same here.

Also on the news this week, the quarantine facilities at the Royal Free. Plus in a separate article on R4, the UK chief virologist saying that it is killed by soap and water.

Our measures are infinitely better than anything they have in poor countries in Africa.

It's a horrible illness and a dreadful way to die, there may well be one or two cases here if the outbreak continues, but I can't see it taking hold.

lostinrates

vivatifosi wrote: »

On the news this week there was a plane arriving from Nigeria at an airport in China. They were able to use a scanner to scan the entire passenger load for temperature and pull them out to quarantine. I think this is something they also used for SARS. I bet they do the same here.

Also on the news this week, the quarantine facilities at the Royal Free. Plus in a separate article on R4, the UK chief virologist saying that it is killed by soap and water.

Our measures are infinitely better than anything they have in poor countries in Africa.

It's a horrible illness and a dreadful way to die, there may well be one or two cases here if the outbreak continues, but I can't see it taking hold.

We have no sink in our down stairs loo ( people have to use the one in the utility room , but despite by general dislike of them we also have a bottle of sanitiser in the loo just in case in the loo)

What's interesting is I always say to people ' you have to use the sink in the utility room' and its interesting how many people just don't bother and look a bit surprised I am offering them a sink elsewhere.

We certainly have the facility here to contain many outbreaks, whether there is much will to prevent them now. I wonder how many people, for example, will be more thoroughly washing hands ATM, just in case? Not many I'd guess, but i't wouldn't hurt, not with crazy stuff, just soap and water.

vivatifosi

lostinrates wrote: »

We certainly have the facility here to contain many outbreaks, whether there is much will to prevent them now. I wonder how many people, for example, will be more thoroughly washing hands ATM, just in case? Not many I'd guess, but i't wouldn't hurt, not with crazy stuff, just soap and water.

At the moment it is not here. If it even got close to being here, I'd expect to see far more hand washing, plus people walking around London wearing masks Japanese style, and possibly disposable gloves on the tube.

I bet library use would go down for a bit too, and that people would worry about dirty books transmitting germs. But that's just my own personal concern. "Have you recently returned from West Africa, sir? If so, I'm afraid the latest Alan Titchmarsh will have to wait for another day". Hopefully not a conversation I will ever need to have.

LydiaJ

They've also been quarantining and testing any Commonwealth Games athletes from the infected countries who have shown any signs of fever or anything. So far, all have tested negative and been let out again.