Scottish Referendum - John Swinney interview

IveSeenTheLight

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Evidence? Why would anyone demarcate Scottish constituencies for returning MPs to the UK government in such a manner given that having a majority of MPs in Scotland is of no relevance to anything?

Very simply put, Scotland uses a different electoral system from First Past The Post.
They have adopted an Additional Member System which helps to proportionally represent each party.

The Electoral System for the Scottish Parliament

Features of the Additional Member System

• Voters get two votes - to elect 1 constituency MSP and 7 regional/ list MSPs
• Each person living in Scotland has a total of 8 MSPs to represent them.
• The overall result is fairly proportional.
• It is unlikely that one party will get an overall majority and therefore coalitions are likely. (For example, see the 1999 election results when Labour and the Liberal Democrats formed a coalition government - the Scottish Executive)
• New parties and smaller parties are more likely to get representation than by using 'first past the post'. (e.g Green Party, Scottish Socialist Party)
• General elections for the Scottish Parliament take place every four years, normally on the first Thursday in May. Unlike Westminster where the Prime Minister has the power to set the date of the next general election, the First Minister cannot call an election before the end of four years. Only in extraordinary circumstances can the date be changed by a two-thirds majority of all MSPs.
• Resignations and deaths of constituency MSPs - if a constituency MSP resigns from their political party, they can continue to represent the constituency as an independent MSP. If a constituency MSP resigns from the Parliament or dies, a by-election will be held in that constituency to elect a new member.
• Resignations and deaths of regional MSPs - if a regional MSP resigns from their political party, they can continue to represent the region as an independent MSP. If a regional member resigns from the Parliament or dies, their seat is given to the next person on the political party's list. If an independent MSP resigns from the Parliament or dies, there is no one to replace them as they were a list of one person, so that seat will remain empty or vacant until the next election.

chewmylegoff

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Very simply put, Scotland uses a different electoral system from First Past The Post.
They have adopted an Additional Member System which helps to proportionally represent each party.

The Electoral System for the Scottish Parliament

You're now talking about the system of electing MSPs which is not the same as the system of electing MPs. The odds you were referring to were in respect of the number of Scottish MPs elected in the 1997 general election. Not sure what MSPs have to do with anything?

IveSeenTheLight

chewmylegoff wrote: »

You're now talking about the system of electing MSPs which is not the same as the system of electing MPs. The odds you were referring to were in respect of the number of Scottish MPs elected in the 1997 general election. Not sure what MSPs have to do with anything?

The Scottish parliament voting system has been drawn up which effectively should have ensured that no party had an overall majority.
Despite this, an overall majority prevailed.

Surely it's not hard to conceive that the SNP has history of overcoming the odds.

chewmylegoff

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

The Scottish parliament voting system has been drawn up which effectively should have ensured that no party had an overall majority.
Despite this, an overall majority prevailed.

Surely it's not hard to conceive that the SNP has history of overcoming the odds.

How is this in anyway relevant in the context of the general election odds you were citing? What were the odds on the SNP gaining an overall majority of MSPs in the last Scottish parliament election?

IveSeenTheLight

chewmylegoff wrote: »

What were the odds on the SNP gaining an overall majority of MSPs in the last Scottish parliament election?

I don;t have that information at hand, but will try and google it later when I have time.

Certainly the Scottish Parliament Election System and the media reaction to obtaining a majority at the time suggests it was against the odds.

Generali

chewmylegoff wrote: »

How is this in anyway relevant in the context of the general election odds you were citing? What were the odds on the SNP gaining an overall majority of MSPs in the last Scottish parliament election?

AIUI the PR system chosen for the Scottish Parliament was such that is was unlikely that any single party would ever get a majority. In 199x when the Scottish Parliament got going, the odds on a party getting an overall majority would have been strongly against.

However, that's not the same as saying that the odds a couple of days before an election on the betting exchanges, which tend to reflect each party's chances of winning very well according to psephological research, showed that the SNP wouldn't win the election.

Nobody keeps old odds in a systematic way, not in the way that Bloomberg or Reuters keep old financial data. The way people bet now I would think that there is some value in being able to show old betting markets to people.