Scottish Referendum - John Swinney interview

BillJones

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I repeat though, Spain's results are a good example of how betting odds are no guarantee of any outcome

This is true, but we do then get back to questions such as the numbers polled, representative of the poll, and so on.

I'd be pretty surprised if Scotland votes to leave, based on all the numbers to date.

MumOf2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Will the commonwealth late July / early August have more bearing on the September referendum?

In your opinion, is a person residing in Scotland more likely to vote for 'independence' (or John Swinney's version of 'independence') because Glasgow hosts a two-week sporting event two months before the referendum?


Or is he/she more likely to consider the future of Scotland based on the future of this generation and generations to come?

mystic_trev

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I repeat though, Spain's results are a good example of how betting odds are no guarantee of any outcome

You really can't compare Football and Political betting, Footballs far more a game of chance. I've used Spread betting on Several elections and bye elections and the Markets have always been bang on the money.

IveSeenTheLight

MumOf2 wrote: »

In your opinion, is a person residing in Scotland more likely to vote for 'independence' (or John Swinney's version of 'independence') because Glasgow hosts a two-week sporting event two months before the referendum?


Or is he/she more likely to consider the future of Scotland based on the future of this generation and generations to come?

I would hope, as I do, that people consider the long term future of the people of Scotland and be prepared to overcome any short term challenges along the way.

My response was to a point made that Independence likelihood might have increased given a successful English World Cup campaign, hence why I wondered whether another sporting event much closer to home, much closer to the referendum with Scottish athletes competing may make some consider.

IveSeenTheLight

mystic_trev wrote: »

You really can't compare Football and Political betting, Footballs far more a game of chance. I've used Spread betting on Several elections and bye elections and the Markets have always been bang on the money.

Interestingly, the constituencies were drawn up such that no party was to gain political majority in Scotland, however it prevailed.

You may find this interesting
Realists' opinion of SNP gains

With bookies more known for realism than charity I inquired as to the prevailing odds against the SNP winning a majority of seats in Scotland. I was informed the odds were 200-1 against. Interestingly, the same bookmakers offer odds of 33-1 against Nasa confirming extraterrestrial life and 66-1 against Scotland winning the next World Cup.

On this basis we are three times as likely to be celebrating a Scotland World Cup victory and six times more likely to stumble upon an alien in Govan than we are to see an outbreak of Nationalism in Scotland. For betting aficionados we are only marginally less likely to encounter Elvis in Safeways than to elect Alex Salmond Prime Minister. I think that puts Alex Salmond's propaganda in proper perspective. No wonder his mother didn't trust him enough to vote for him.

So, here is a historical record of political betting odds and how they were so wrong.

Hope this helps to clarify that despite the marketing odds, this is not a foregone conclusion

luckbox

An interesting article

Still more talk of sharing currency. I am still wating for the the Yes campaign to reveal their policy of a seperate currency and how that will benifit an independant Scotland.

Voters will need to know this and you never know, it might bring some of the undecided on board with the Yes campaign seen to be laying out a future; instead of continually repeating the same thing that has been ruled out by the rest of the UK

MumOf2

luckbox wrote: »

An interesting article

Still more talk of sharing currency. I am still wating for the the Yes campaign to reveal their policy of a seperate currency and how that will benifit an independant Scotland.

Voters will need to know this and you never know, it might bring some of the undecided on board with the Yes campaign seen to be laying out a future; instead of continually repeating the same thing that has been ruled out by the rest of the UK

Yes, it would really help clarify matters for everyone if they were to be honest and lay their cards on the table. Their patronising hubris really does them no favours at all.

chewmylegoff

Not another thread about Scottish Independence. Groan.

chewmylegoff

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I can understand there as an adjustment as bets are placed to balance risk of likely payouts.

Initially however, there is a balanced simulation of expected results.

Check this link which initially gave USA a 35% chance of progressing past the group stage before a ball was kicked.

After the first game they increased to 69%

Despite a draw, http://worldsoccertalk.com/2014/05/31/world-cup-2014-simulation-our-calculations-of-who-will-advance-past-the-group-stage/"]they are now 86%[/URL]

So these are all taken into account.

I repeat though, Spain's results are a good example of how betting odds are no guarantee of any outcome

Football results aren't decided by which team has the most fans though. If they were then the odds would be much more accurate...

MumOf2

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Not another thread about Scottish Independence. Groan.

I'm afraid so. Sorry but just couldn't ignore Swinney's very strange interpretation of 'independence'.


I do wish 18 September would come quickly for all our sakes...