Scottish Referendum - John Swinney interview

mystic_trev

With bookies more known for realism than charity I inquired as to the prevailing odds against the SNP winning a majority of seats in Scotland. I was informed the odds were 200-1 against.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

So, here is a historical record of political betting odds and how they were so wrong.

Hope this helps to clarify that despite the marketing odds, this is not a foregone conclusion

That quote was 17 years ago! Blimey you must be grasping at straws!

chewmylegoff

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Interestingly, the constituencies were drawn up such that no party was to gain political majority in Scotland, however it prevailed.

You may find this interesting
Realists' opinion of SNP gains



So, here is a historical record of political betting odds and how they were so wrong.

Hope this helps to clarify that despite the marketing odds, this is not a foregone conclusion

The odds appear to be related to the 1997 general election at which the SNP won 6 out of 72 Scottish seats - so the odds seem to have been vindicated by the election result.

IveSeenTheLight

chewmylegoff wrote: »

The odds appear to be related to the 1997 general election at which the SNP won 6 out of 72 Scottish seats - so the odds seem to have been vindicated by the election result.

The constituencies were drawn up with the view that no party would gain an overall majority.

How wrong they were proven.

Buzby

luckbox wrote: »

An interesting article

Still more talk of sharing currency. I am still wating for the the Yes campaign to reveal their policy of a seperate currency and how that will benifit an independant Scotland.

Voters will need to know this and you never know, it might bring some of the undecided on board with the Yes campaign seen to be laying out a future; instead of continually repeating the same thing that has been ruled out by the rest of the UK

You appear to have missed the various alternatives out forward (as I recall, plans B to E) so quite why you think this is something being 'kept' from you amazes me. It is even laid out in the 'Scotland's Future' white paper - so no issue of this bring a one-trick option and doomed to failure.

The No camp see this as deal-breaker in that No Sterling = No Winning the vote. However, I do not think having the BoE holding fiscal control of Scotland helping Independence. As a transitional measure - perhaps. Swinney does say the costs to those south of the border will be considerably higher due to a need for currency conversions, and I can see this when I get my Euros. So why have the hassle? It is Westminster shooting itself in the foot - who else uses it, apart from a few island communities and Gibraltar?

Scotland will do what is best, and if that is prevented by other issues, then the next best. Is that hard to grasp?

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Interestingly, the constituencies were drawn up such that no party was to gain political majority in Scotland, however it prevailed.

You may find this interesting
Realists' opinion of SNP gains



So, here is a historical record of political betting odds and how they were so wrong.

Hope this helps to clarify that despite the marketing odds, this is not a foregone conclusion

Rubbish. I can only think that the enquirer asked what the odds were of the SNP winning a majority of seats in England. That, or this letter is what we economists call "made up".

You can't even get those sorts of odds on the Lib Dems winning the next election who are the third biggest party and regularly polling less than 10%.

A letter to a newspaper is no more a credible source than any other assertion.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

Rubbish.

Dismiss the link if you wish.
I thought it was interesting to find a reference to political betting with regards to the SNP where the overwhelming odds against happened to come through some years later.

It seems that using sporting bets as references are frowned upon and using these historical political odds are dismissed.

Maybe discussing odd's is simply no value as they are disregarded by both sides of the discussion.

No doubt about it though, the SNP have historically shown that they can prevail in circumstances where it is designed not to and have experience of crossing the finishing line at the right time.

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Dismiss the link if you wish.
I thought it was interesting to find a reference to political betting with regards to the SNP where the overwhelming odds against happened to come through some years later.

It seems that using sporting bets as references are frowned upon and using these historical political odds are dismissed.

Maybe discussing odd's is simply no value as they are disregarded by both sides of the discussion.

No doubt about it though, the SNP have historically shown that they can prevail in circumstances where it is designed not to and have experience of crossing the finishing line at the right time.

There's some very interesting research out there about matched betting odds and their predictive capacity for elections, especially where the matched betting odds have been at odds (pun intended) with the pollsters and pundits for 2 horse races:

http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/aea/jep/2004/00000018/00000002/art00007

I realise that's not the case this time but Betfair is telling us that from here the Nats have a 1 in 4 chance of winning and the Uns have a 3 in 4 chance. You surely can't be one-eyed enough to dismiss that given that the Nats have led the polls once in 2-and-a-bit years.

That's pretty generous odds for the Uns IMHO. I reckon that's a decent backing opportunity. I might even have a punt.

Tromking

This whole Scottish independence thing has me a quandary. I'm torn between a yes vote ridding the UK of the profligate and ungrateful Scots and the look on Salmonds face when he concedes defeat as the result of a no vote!

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

You surely can't be one-eyed enough to dismiss that given that the Nats have led the polls once in 2-and-a-bit years.

The problem with polls is that they are reflective of the small representation at that place and time.

The only poll that will matter is the one on Sept 18th.

It will not matter what the polls are for the 2 1/2 - 3 years prior.

The Yes Campaign believe they have a strategy to prevail in September and we will see whether they are successful or not.

I will be voting Yes, however I think the outcome will be No.
I just think that society is to afraid of change, hence why the No campaign are fighting a negative campaign hoping to install fear of change.

One thing I will not do is take anything for granted.

chewmylegoff

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

The constituencies were drawn up with the view that no party would gain an overall majority.

How wrong they were proven.

Evidence? Why would anyone demarcate Scottish constituencies for returning MPs to the UK government in such a manner given that having a majority of MPs in Scotland is of no relevance to anything?