MPC may raise Interest Rates to 6% in August!

phlash

My bet is Mervyn King, Sir John Gieve, Andrew Sentance, Tim Besley vote RAISE.

Rachel Lomax, Charles Bean, David Blanchflower supported by the swingers Kate Barker and Paul Tucker vote HOLD.

HOLD wins 5-4.

foreversummer

This may be of interest.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgag...e_id=57&ct =5

Foreversummer

foreversummer

Really sorry, they seem to have moved it.

I'll see if I can find it again.

Foreversummer

Generali

The flooding should cause a short term fall in growth that will give the MPC a reason not to raise. It will do that for the simple reason that people can't get to work to produce the things that get added up to make GDP!

If you recall, a couple of years ago we had a Bank Holiday for the Queen Mother (funeral? I forget). That month GDP was about 0.5% below predictions. That was because 1 out of about 22 working days each month was lost.

I reckon the floods should easily have that effect on growth.

foreversummer

Hope this one works.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=422621&in_page_id=57

Rover

If the flooding influences the MPC in 7 days time, it will be sentimental/predictive, not data based.

Guy_Montag

Generali wrote: »

The flooding should cause a short term fall in growth that will give the MPC a reason not to raise. It will do that for the simple reason that people can't get to work to produce the things that get added up to make GDP!

If you recall, a couple of years ago we had a Bank Holiday for the Queen Mother (funeral? I forget). That month GDP was about 0.5% below predictions. That was because 1 out of about 22 working days each month was lost.

I reckon the floods should easily have that effect on growth.

I imagine that as many people as possible did what I did that week & took the whole week as leave (five days off, for two days annual leave (I got privilege days then)).

Rover

foreversummer wrote: »

Hope this one works.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=422621&in_page_id=57

See my earlier post:
'As an aside, I was recently told be an informative person, that we - the great British public - are the last to know/react to the market situation.
Institutional investors always 'know' before us. We suffer more and later. Take a look at the share performance of any of the large builders over the last 3 months???? Do they know something we don't ?'

Generali

Rover wrote: »

See my earlier post:
'As an aside, I was recently told be an informative person, that we - the great British public - are the last to know/react to the market situation.
Institutional investors always 'know' before us. We suffer more and later. Take a look at the share performance of any of the large builders over the last 3 months???? Do they know something we don't ?'

Correct. It's why IMHO, the best investment for the vast majority of people is a series of low cost trakers of various equity indices and bonds bought by dripping money in each month. There's no need for all this exotic cr.p of commodities and things that cost a bl00dy fortune to buy. You get plenty of exposure to commodities (through mining stocks) and property etc as long as you cast your net wide enough.

If you invest based on what you read in the Sunday papers you'll be destined to buy and sell too late. You'll probably end up with very expensive funds too. There seems to be a strong correlation between the big advertisers and the articles in the money pages.

Sure, if you fancy yourself as the next Warren Buffet or just fancy a flutter then buy individual holdings. It's very hard to make money from consistently though. Even a lot of the professionals struggle to beat the market once charges are taken into account.

Melissa177

I've put a fiver on a .25 rate hike. Odds of 9/1 seemed to give a good risk:reward ratio.

That said, I won't be surprised if I lose my fiver.