Halifax May +3.9% MOM, +8.7% YOY

CLAPTON

Blacklight wrote: »

It works like this:

• There's a rumor that the economy might slow down a bit.
• BBC get hold of said bad news and flog that horse every day until it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy on which they can feed for months to come (this step is optional).
• Every housebuilder in the UK quickly downs tools, closes every site and leaves hundreds of homes unfinished as the know they won't be able to sell them for anywhere near as much (supply severely restricted).
• Good economic news some years later
• Housebuilders go back to work increasing supply as they can now sell again at previous peak prices.

This can be evidenced by:

1. Comparing number of houses built in Feb 2009 (low price) to 2007 (peak price).
2. Looking out of your window.

in 2007/8 there was a world wide financial crisis
even with the awesome power of the BBC, it's a little fanciful that they made the whole thing up

self evidently, every builder did not down tools but lack of mortgages did reduce the ability of non cash buyers to actually afford to buy.
this meant that builders couldn't sell : several made loses and stopped paying dividends to the annoyance of their owners

later the BoE poured lots of money into the banks and introduced LFL and HTB which meant there was a lot more mortgages available.

with more mortgages came more sales which meant more building

it all may well have been a conspiracy, but if there was one, it wasn't by the builders.

Blacklight

CLAPTON wrote: »

in 2007/8 there was a world wide financial crisis
even with the awesome power of the BBC, it's a little fanciful that they made the whole thing up

self evidently, every builder did not down tools but lack of mortgages did reduce the ability of non cash buyers to actually afford to buy.
this meant that builders couldn't sell : several made loses and stopped paying dividends to the annoyance of their owners

later the BoE poured lots of money into the banks and introduced LFL and HTB which meant there was a lot more mortgages available.

with more mortgages came more sales which meant more building

it all may well have been a conspiracy, but if there was one, it wasn't by the builders.

I didn't say the BBC made the whole thing up, I said they touted it on street corners like greasy purveyors of other media. See 1845 today (06/06/14 BBC1) Peston talking about the housing bubble, stood in front of Bath's Crescent. What does one have to do with the other please? (how much has Bath's Crescent increased against prime London property?) Nothing, mere lefty propaganda.

That aside - "builders didn't down tools but credit rationing stopped people buying" - I think you'll find that builders downing tools came after the credit restriction and for the very reason I have identified (can't sell for big enough margin).

You've gone on to say that more money in people's pockets, given to house builders allowed them to sell more houses again... well, yes, that's the point.

TickersPlaysPop

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Indeed.

But I wasn't responding to that. Was responding to a specific point raised by Generali.

The overarching point is that there are many factors. Building more houses doesn't necessarily solve the problem for UK citizens. Say for instance in a situation where newly built homes are bought by foreign investors. Something which is happening. Many issues need looking at. The problem isn't solved by building more homes alone. The demand side and what that demand is made up of (investors, increase in loans etc etc, second / third homes) is also something which needs looking at.

At last somebody else is saying the same as me! Thank you!

Building more houses alone will possibly make the situation worse! It needs a multi facet approach over a long time to bring housing back to a sustainable and socially positive constructive system.

TickersPlaysPop

ruggedtoast wrote: »

They are going beserk about this over on the forum hpc.co.uk, they wont take this lying down.

I can feel something is changing, people have had enough, politicians will be called to answer. Even the boomers are becoming concerned now.

Also my feelings!

I fear that change will not happen without making the 18-34 yr olds politically aware and active. They are the ones who will suffer the most from the broken housing system.

TickersPlaysPop

CLAPTON wrote: »

in 2007/8 there was a world wide financial crisis
even with the awesome power of the BBC, it's a little fanciful that they made the whole thing up

self evidently, every builder did not down tools but lack of mortgages did reduce the ability of non cash buyers to actually afford to buy.
this meant that builders couldn't sell : several made loses and stopped paying dividends to the annoyance of their owners

later the BoE poured lots of money into the banks and introduced LFL and HTB which meant there was a lot more mortgages available.

with more mortgages came more sales which meant more building

it all may well have been a conspiracy, but if there was one, it wasn't by the builders.

Great to see you have changed your position on this aspect ..... now you are saying that the banks are controlling the house building not the building companies.... you have enthusiastically disagreed with me on this in the past!

My fathers company in 2008 had a team of guys ready to build, planning permission but the banks wouldn't lend, so he had to sack the lot and stop building.... multiply this across the country.

CLAPTON

Blacklight wrote: »

I didn't say the BBC made the whole thing up, I said they touted it on street corners like greasy purveyors of other media. See 1845 today (06/06/14 BBC1) Peston talking about the housing bubble, stood in front of Bath's Crescent. What does one have to do with the other please? (how much has Bath's Crescent increased against prime London property?) Nothing, mere lefty propaganda.

That aside - "builders didn't down tools but credit rationing stopped people buying" - I think you'll find that builders downing tools came after the credit restriction and for the very reason I have identified (can't sell for big enough margin).

You've gone on to say that more money in people's pockets, given to house builders allowed them to sell more houses again... well, yes, that's the point.

sales drop
production slows down


sales rise
production increases

a universal truth
seems reasonable to me but obviously not to you

CLAPTON

TickersPlaysPop wrote: »

Great to see you have changed your position on this aspect ..... now you are saying that the banks are controlling the house building not the building companies.... you have enthusiastically disagreed with me on this in the past!

My fathers company in 2008 had a team of guys ready to build, planning permission but the banks wouldn't lend, so he had to sack the lot and stop building.... multiply this across the country.

I have posted 2,541 posts saying that the low level of building is due to the combination of credit restrictions and our planning and regulatory rules.
Please find one post of mine were I have deviated from that mantra.

I am aware there are idiots that say building more is not a very significant answer to the housing problem but I'm not one of those.

I would be delighted to know more about your fathers experiences.

TickersPlaysPop

One aspect of the broken housing system in this country is linking the production of houses to the availability of credit to individuals and companies.

If this link could weakened maybe building wouldn't have slowed so much. Building rates were arguably not enough before 2008 which is another debate, but we need funding for house building to come from different and new sources. Also it would help to incentivise new investment with gov tax policies.

One source of money was suggested by a review by experts..... It claimed local authority pension funds could be released to support building.

wotsthat

TickersPlaysPop wrote: »

Building more houses alone will possibly make the situation worse! It needs a multi facet approach over a long time to bring housing back to a sustainable and socially positive constructive system.

Well we've spent decades not building enough houses and, you might see if different, it hasn't solved anything. We could keep trying it I suppose and maybe the outcome will be different.

All those foreign buyers who leave their properties empty (that you fear so much) do so BECAUSE there's a housing shortage as it makes property a good investment but they are not the CAUSE. Building more houses will deter them. We wouldn't need elaborate taxes, time limits before BTL could buy new houses, HTB would die on the vine and HPI would be moderated.

You'd get the pleasure of seeing an insignificant number of foreigners receive a poor investment and Graham could get on his staircase to heaven. Meanwhile for the majority they'd find it easier to buy and rent houses in the places they want to live and work.

TickersPlaysPop

CLAPTON wrote: »

I have posted 2,541 posts saying that the low level of building is due to the combination of credit restrictions and our planning and regulatory rules.
Please find one post of mine were I have deviated from that mantra.

CLAPTON wrote: »

maybe you can produce the evidence to support that building companies are short of cash to build?

# 19 CLAPTON 26-04-2014, 8:28 AM

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4942114

Why would you ask me to provide evidence if you didn't disagree with what I was writing?